Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
256 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY...THEN STALL
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
TRIAD AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON COULD
RESULT IN SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. INSTABILITY IS GREATEST IN THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...AND THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE AREA AFTER SUNSET...THUS DO
NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR DOWNBURST. HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
THE BIGGEST THREAT GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET AS NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION SETS UP. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OK/TX MOVES EASTWARD. AS A
RESULT...WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH MOVES THROUGH. THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND
LAPSE RATES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
SHOULD HELP GET SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING IN THE AFT/EVE...BUT GIVEN
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...DO NOT
EXPECT SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...MAYBE A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER...UPPER 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD
LARGELY STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. -KCP

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY...AND THEN LIKELY STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1.5-1.75 INCHES AND GIVEN THE WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...AM STILL EXPECTING GOOD PRECIP
COVERAGE AND WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY (ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME FRAME). WITH REGARDS TO ANY SEVERE
THREAT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK (ON THE ORDER OF 10-
20 KNOTS) AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK HEATING AS MODELS PROG MODERATE DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/KG). PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA AND WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS. GIVEN
THE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIP...TEMPS SHOULD BE A GOOD 10 (MAYBE
15) DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO UPPER 80S FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST. -KRD

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...BEFORE BEING PUSHED EVEN FURTHER SOUTH
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...FOR
FRIDAY...A DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
(HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND BEST
DESTABILIZATION). TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. THEN...FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY EVEN FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS WILL VIRTUALLY BRING AN END TO OUR PRECIP CHANCES AS STABLE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY...THEREFORE
KEEPING THE AREA MOSTLY DRY...WITH MAYBE SOME DIURNAL TYPE PRECIP
RETURNING FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MOISTURE INCREASES
IN THE INCREASING RETURN FLOW. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CU/TCU WITH BASES AT 3500-6000 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOIST AND DIURNALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE TRIAD...AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFT/EVE. BREEZY WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOULD A
SHOWER/STORM MOVE OVER A TERMINAL...CEILINGS COULD DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WINDS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (08-14Z) AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK (THU/FRI). MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. -VINCENT/KC

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC/KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...KC/VINCENT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
353 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-282000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
353 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A
FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
339 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

NCZ040-272030-
CHATHAM-
339 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CHATHAM COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM EDT...

AT 339 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SILER CITY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PITTSBORO...SILER CITY...GOLDSTON...CROSSWINDS BOATING CENTER...
SEAFORTH BOAT DOCK...BYNUM...HASTY...HARPERS CROSSROADS...JORDAN LAKE
STATE REC AREA AND CROSSWINDS CAMPGROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF
YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER INDOORS...AN ENCLOSED VEHICLE CAN PROVIDE
SAFE SHELTER. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 7891 3561 7900 3558 7892 3552 7897
      3555 7903 3561 7907 3563 7914 3557 7922
      3557 7924 3553 7927 3555 7930 3552 7935
      3552 7956 3584 7954 3584 7924 3588 7925
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 283DEG 29KT 3576 7937

ELLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
406 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

NCZ039-272100-
RANDOLPH-
406 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF RANDOLPH COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 406 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF SEAGROVE...OR 8 MILES WEST
OF NORTH CAROLINA ZOO...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ASHEBORO...NORTH CAROLINA ZOO...SEAGROVE...RAMSEUR...FRANKLINVILLE...
STALEY...COLERIDGE...ULAH AND MARTHA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 8005 3581 7954 3551 7956 3551 8006
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 267DEG 10KT 3560 7991

ELLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
419 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW CARRBORO          35.93N  79.16W
05/27/2014                   ORANGE             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER-LINE BLOWN DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SERTOMA
            ROAD AND HIGHWAY 54.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1401411

CBL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
420 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

NCZ025-040-041-272100-
WAKE-CHATHAM-DURHAM-
420 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WAKE...
NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM AND SOUTHERN DURHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 420 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DURHAM...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RALEIGH...DURHAM...CARY...WAKE FOREST...GARNER...RDU INTERNATIONAL...
APEX...MORRISVILLE...WILLIAM B UMSTEAD STATE PARK AND BETHESDA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3581 7903 3600 7893 3598 7850 3561 7868
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 287DEG 11KT 3591 7894

ELLIS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
450 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

NCZ008-026-041-272145-
WAKE-GRANVILLE-FRANKLIN-
450 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WAKE...
SOUTHEASTERN GRANVILLE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 450 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WAKE FOREST...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CREEDMOOR...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOUISBURG...WAKE FOREST...ZEBULON...FRANKLINTON...BUNN...
ROLESVILLE...YOUNGSVILLE...CENTERVILLE...PILOT AND FALLS LAKE STATE
REC AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 7820 3626 7817 3625 7813 3621 7811
      3622 7805 3620 7801 3582 7825 3579 7830
      3596 7872 3608 7869 3614 7851 3618 7849
      3616 7842 3623 7838 3624 7834 3627 7831
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 275DEG 13KT 3603 7862

ELLIS