Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
358 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

OVERVIEW: AS OF 19Z...A POTENT SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN VA
INVOF SOUTH HILL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TOWARD VIRGINIA BEACH
AND ELIZABETH CITY THROUGH 00Z. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS CENTERED
UPSTREAM NEAR LYNCHBURG VA...ON THE HEELS OF THE PRIOR WAVE. YET
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED OVER UPSTATE SC AND WILL TRACK
SLOWLY EAST ALONG OR NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER THROUGH THIS EVE. WITH
SUCH A COMPLICATED PATTERN...UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
REMAINS HIGH THIS AFT/EVE. PERVASIVE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP NORTH OF HWY
64 AND A MINIMUM IN 925 MB MOISTURE OVER MOST OF THE AREA PRIOR TO
17Z LARGELY SUPPRESSED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...BOTH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION (~19C
DEWPT AT 925 MB) FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAVE RESULTED IN RAPID
DESTABILIZATION THE PAST SEVERAL HRS...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
MLCAPE (2000-2500 J/KG) PER 19Z SPC MESOANALYSIS.

PRECIP/TEMPS: GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES POISED TO
BRUSH BOTH THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL NC...DEEP
MOISTURE (PWAT 1.75-2.00") AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY LATE THIS AFT/EVE...
WITH A LOW CHANCE LINGERING OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
70S.

SEVERE THREAT: A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND LOW/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR HAS EMERGED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE TRIAD...WHERE A WEAK
MESOLOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE GENERATED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/EVAP COOLING. IN THIS AREA...CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLULAR ORGANIZATION
AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. OUTSIDE OF THIS LOCALLY FAV
ENVIRONMENT...STRON INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT (STRONGEST NORTH) WOULD SUGGEST CONVECTION
WILL TAKE ON EITHER MULTICELL/SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS WITH A
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THROUGH
00-03Z THIS EVENING. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...

EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...AROUND 30-
40%...IN ASSOC/W A PATTERN OF WNW/NW FLOW ALOFT AND ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...

THE MAJOR PROBLEM THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DISCERNING
WHEN AND WHERE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS AS TO THE TRANSITION TO A LARGER SCALE
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
GRADUAL MIGRATION OF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL AMPLIFY INTO A
DEEPER UPPER TROF DOWN THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONCURRENT
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL PRESENT THE USUAL PROBLEMS WITH
TIMING FEATURES THAT WILL BE STEERED INTO THE AREA. AIRMASS WILL BE
REASONABLY WARM (UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S) AND MOIST...PW ~1.5 INCHES...
BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE HAMPERED BY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH...SO CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
RANGE...30 PERCENT-ISH...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COOL SURGE WILL PROGRESS SOUTH AND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FAR EASTERN CANADA IS SHUNTED DOWN THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL ENHANCE A COASTAL TROF IN PLACE
OFFSHORE AND RESULT IN DEEP NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ACCOMPANYING MOIST AND COOLER MARINE-FLAVORED AIRMASS PERSISTING
THROUGH MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MINIMAL...AND MID LEVEL
FEATURES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE NIL-CONFIDENCE THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE. WOULD EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO BE THE
PREDOMINANT TYPE OF PRECIP...WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION HINGING
ON UPSTREAM FEATURES WE MIGHT SEE 24-48 HOURS IN ADVANCE.
THICKNESSES WOULD INDICATE A 3-5 DEGREE COOL DOWN FOR SATURDAY...AND
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP US IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY...WHICH IS MORE LIKELY TO ERR ON THE HIGH SIDE
GIVEN THE LOOK OF THE PATTERN AND POTENTIAL FOR SOCKING IN SOME
SATURATED MARINE LAYER AIR OVERNIGHT WITH ACCOMPANYING DENSE FOG/LOW
STRATUS TO START THE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1115 AM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISBYS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST IF NOT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS
(FAY). A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TERMINALS EARLY TUE MORNING (08-13Z)...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFT/EVE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION THEREOF WITH THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT A CLIMATOLOGICAL POTENTIAL FOR AFT/EVE SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AND/OR LOW CEILINGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
432 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-192045-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
432 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE HIGHEST
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WHERE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE VIRGINIA
BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
350 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

NCZ021-182045-
FORSYTH-
350 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN FORSYTH
COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 349 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EAST BEND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WINSTON-SALEM...CLEMMONS...LEWISVILLE...RURAL HALL...STANLEYVILLE...
DONNAHA AND PFAFFTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITH THIS STORM. IF THE
STORM INTENSIFIES AND ROTATION STRENGTHENS...A WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3611 8051 3612 8046 3614 8044 3617 8044
      3621 8045 3622 8043 3624 8045 3626 8045
      3623 8022 3599 8033 3604 8045 3606 8046
      3605 8047 3607 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 292DEG 6KT 3617 8055

77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
412 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

NCZ023-024-182115-
ORANGE-ALAMANCE-
412 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ORANGE AND
NORTHERN ALAMANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 412 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CAMP SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE CAMMACK PARK & MARINA...UNION RIDGE...ALTAMAHAW-OSSIPEE...
CARR...SCHLEY...ALTAMAHAW...LAKE BURLINGTON...PLEASANT GROVE AND ENO
RIVER STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITH THIS STORM. IF THE
STORM INTENSIFIES AND ROTATION STRENGTHENS...A WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 7895 3609 7898 3618 7953 3625 7953
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 283DEG 23KT 3624 7947

77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
427 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

NCZ007-024-025-182130-
PERSON-ORANGE-DURHAM-
427 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PERSON...
NORTHEASTERN ORANGE AND NORTH CENTRAL DURHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

AT 426 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HIGHTOWERS...OR NEAR PROSPECT HILL...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROUGEMONT...MORIAH...SURL...BAHAMA...LAKE MICHIE AND BUSHY FORK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITH THIS STORM. IF THE
STORM INTENSIFIES AND ROTATION STRENGTHENS...A WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3636 7880 3630 7880 3615 7882 3624 7918
      3624 7915 3638 7915
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 284DEG 17KT 3630 7924

77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
455 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

NCZ008-009-182200-
VANCE-GRANVILLE-
455 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VANCE AND
CENTRAL GRANVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 454 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF BUTNER...OR 9 MILES WEST OF
OXFORD...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HENDERSON...OXFORD...KITTRELL...STEM...BEREA...GILLBURG...SOUTH
HENDERSON AND LAKE BUTNER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITH THIS STORM. IF THE
STORM INTENSIFIES AND ROTATION STRENGTHENS...A WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3630 7828 3626 7831 3623 7834 3623 7838
      3617 7842 3616 7843 3617 7845 3617 7847
      3618 7848 3618 7849 3615 7851 3620 7880
      3636 7877
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 283DEG 19KT 3626 7875

77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
554 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

NCZ009-026-182300-
VANCE-FRANKLIN-
554 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VANCE AND
NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 554 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KITTRELL...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LOUISBURG...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...KITTRELL...CENTERVILLE AND INGLESIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITH THIS STORM. IF THE
STORM INTENSIFIES AND ROTATION STRENGTHENS...A WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3628 7840 3627 7831 3625 7819 3626 7817
      3624 7816 3625 7813 3621 7811 3621 7805
      3620 7801 3603 7812 3610 7852 3615 7851
      3617 7850 3618 7851 3628 7849
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 277DEG 21KT 3618 7841

ELLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
559 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

NCZ042-078-182245-
WAYNE-JOHNSTON-
559 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WAYNE AND
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 559 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF GOLDSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOLDSBORO...WALNUT CREEK...SEVEN SPRINGS...ELROY...CLIFFS OF THE
NEUSE STATE PARK...BROGDEN...GRANTHAM AND MAR-MAC.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 7782 3518 7783 3518 7784 3526 7828
      3529 7830 3528 7832 3544 7820 3542 7782
      3540 7780 3538 7780
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 280DEG 24KT 3533 7812

WSS