Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RETREAT
WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...HELPING
TO PROPEL A BACK-DOOR SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 334 IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PIEDMONT
AND COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT.

OVERVIEW: SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE
CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS WILL PAVE THE WAY
FOR A BACK-DOOR FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY.

DPVA/HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY/REMNANT MVC WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS
TO LIKELY FOR AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA AS A
FAIRLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BAND/LINE LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING OVER
THE NW PIEDMONT. LATEST HRR SUGGEST THIS CONVECTIVE BAND COULD HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT TRANSLATES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OR ALTERNATIVELY NEW
DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY POTENTIAL WELL ESTABLISHED SURFACE
COLD POOL. AS FAR AS TIMING...OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
CONVECTION TO PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...EXITING
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BETWEEN 03 TO 06Z.

SEVERE THREAT: DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER CENTRAL NC IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE LOW END AT 15 KT OR LESS. REGARDLESS...IMPRESSIVE
THERMODYNAMIC CONSISTING OF STRONG MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 JOULES...AND
DCAPE OF 1200-1500...WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND DIME TO HALF DOLLAR
SIZE HAIL. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS...ITS POSSIBLE
THAT ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.   LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS PROGGED BY THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS TO
HAVE MOVED OUT OF CENTRAL NC BY THE START OF THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60 WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL NC DURING DAY WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEAR
THE SC BORDER WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT OF
SEVERE CONVECTION WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAN TO
THE MID 90S NEAR THE SC BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE AROUND
70. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THAT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING THE COLD FRONT AXIS MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT LINGERS NEAR
CAROLINA COAST. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK
INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN NC BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH
A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS NEAR THE SC BORDER AND IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY GOOD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN AN ARC ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL NC AND SOME RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS OVERHEAD...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ADVERTISE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION FOR THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE IN THE MID OR UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TO AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST WIT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING THE WORKED WEEK WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS AROUND 70. -BLAES
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKS SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR CONVECTION AT ALL TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFT/EVE (18-04Z TIME FRAME)...EARLIEST IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH
GRADUAL MIGRATION INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCED
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD
ABATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
(DURING THE AFT/EVE HOURS) EACH DAY IN ASSOC/W A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
OF NW FLOW ALOFT AND A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE IN THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...CBL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
238 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-089-201845-
JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
238 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HIGH HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND DIME TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-201845-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
WILSON-
238 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 334 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND DIME TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
311 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

NCZ008-009-192015-
VANCE-GRANVILLE-
311 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VANCE AND
NORTHEASTERN GRANVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 310 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CLARKSVILLE...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF
VIRGILINA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STOVALL...MIDDLEBURG...SATTERWHITE POINT MARINA...JOHN H KERR
RESERVOIR...TUNGSTEN...KERR LAKE...STEELE CREEK MARINA & CAMPGROUND
AND BULLOCKSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

IF ON OR NEAR KERR LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO
NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3640 7830 3634 7866 3654 7874 3654 7832
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 322DEG 10KT 3662 7862

ELLIS