Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...PERSIST OVER THE REGION AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SLACK GRADIENT OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN AN UNSTABLE
AIR MASS...IN PARTICULAR IN THE AXES OF HIGHER K INDEX ON THE LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS...OVER THE FOOTHILLS TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
TRIAD...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS FROM NEAR KMEB TO EAST OF
KFAY. CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING RELATIVE TO THE REST
OF THE AREA...AND THE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECASTS WILL SUGGEST THAT. THE LATEST MSAS
LIFTED INDEX ANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES TO NEAR -9C...AND WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE IN GENERAL AT THE SURFACE AND OVERHEAD ALONG WITH VERY WEAK
0-6KM SHEAR SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT OVERALL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG
TO ISOLATED SEVERE SIMPLY DUE TO THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPE ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS TO 1000J/KG. SUCH A SITUATION
IS NOT ATYPICAL FOR THE TYPE OF MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS PRESENT OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHT WARMING
ALOFT DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS SUCH THAT...
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE APPARANT
ABSENCE OF OTHER FORCING. HAVE FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO PERSISTENCE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS...FOR LOWS
WITHIN A DEGREE OR THREE OF 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

AT A HIGH LEVEL...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN THE 1.5 INCH RANGE...A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME IN JUNE...AND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL FORCING
SAVE ANY REMAINING MESOSCALE BOUNDARY OR THE LINGERING PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE JUST A TRIFLE WARMING ALOFT
AROUND 500MB DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE BUT
NOT SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED AFTERNOON CAPE. LIFTED INDICES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 2C TO 3C WARMER THAN THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND DOWNDRAFT
CAPE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
FORECAST THE BEST LIFT DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND ALONG WITH THE LATEST CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING
GUIDANCE THIS SUGGESTS HIGHER CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KGSO TO KMEB. GIVEN
STILL AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WILL SHOW A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS WITH FARTHER EAST
EXTENT.

1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND THE TREND OF GUIDANCE SHOW HIGHS
WEDNESDAY TO BE COOLER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...STARKLY SO ON THE
MET MOS GUIDANCE. IN A PERSISTENT PATTERN WITHOUT A LOT OF EVIDENCE
CURRENTLY FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV WHICH STILL RESULTS IN HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID AS OPPOSED
TO THE UPPER 90S. SHOULD STILL NOTE THE COOL KRDU RECORD HIGH OF 98
FOR WEDNESDAY...SET IN 1944. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR
THREE OF 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...

THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A SWITCH IN THE GENERAL PATTERN FROM
RIDGING ALOFT TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA. IN ADDITION...HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE RESULT IS
A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WILL SET UP NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AND EXTEND
BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

WHILE THE PATTERN WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA...TWO APPEAR TO BE MORE ROBUST. THE FIRST IS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THE SECOND ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
BOTH ARE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES. THE INCREASE IN FORCING SHOULD MAKE CONVECTION EASIER
TO SUSTAIN AS SHEAR VALUES INCREASE FROM GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 TO
NEAR 30 KTS. CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE PLUS OR MINUS 1000 J/KG. HAVE
INCREASED CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. ANY STORMS THAT MAY BECOME SEVERE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR WET MICROBURSTS BUT THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH CAPE THROUGH THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE TO NOT COUNT OUT SOME SMALL HAIL AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT AND LOWER TO
MID 90S ON THE COOL SIDE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING LIGHT
FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE
AROUND THE TRIAD...AND TOWARD KFAY. ON WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR AVIATION
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS OCCURRED TODAY...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY...DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...RELATIVE TO THE REST OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM THE TRIAD SOUTH TO AREAS WEST OF KFAY.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ESPECIALLY WHERE
SHOWERS OCCUR...CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...DJF

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
436 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

NCZ075-077-086-172130-
HOKE-HARNETT-MOORE-
436 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN HOKE...
SOUTHWESTERN HARNETT AND SOUTHEASTERN MOORE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

AT 436 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES EAST OF SOUTHERN PINES...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...WHISPERING PINES AND VASS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3517 7948 3533 7942 3525 7908 3519 7908
      3519 7910 3513 7911 3508 7909 3507 7909
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 287DEG 9KT 3520 7926

SEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
439 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

NCZ021-172145-
FORSYTH-
439 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF FORSYTH
COUNTY UNTIL AT LEAST 545 PM EDT...

AT 437 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HANGING
ROCK STATE PARK TO NEAR KING TO NEAR EAST BEND...AND MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WINSTON-SALEM...KERNERSVILLE...CLEMMONS...HUNTSVILLE...LEWISVILLE...
WALKERTOWN...RURAL HALL...BELEWS LAKE...PFAFFTOWN AND DONNAHA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 8051 3614 8044 3621 8045 3622 8043
      3624 8046 3626 8045 3626 8004 3608 8011
      3603 8021 3600 8032 3599 8042 3602 8042
      3606 8046 3605 8049 3608 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 289DEG 11KT 3636 8026 3621 8041 3619 8053

MWS

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