Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRENGTHENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US
WITH A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER GA/SC AND A SFC HIGH OVER
COASTAL NC.   WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE  60S OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA...TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE SUPPORTING 1500-2000
J/KG.  HOWEVER...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK FORCING MAINLY
FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...BUT A FEW STORMS GETTING GOING
OVER THE BLUE RIDGE LOOK POISED TO ROLL OFF INTO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT BY 20Z. DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DCAPE IS WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG...SO ANY GOOD GOOD STORM WILL
BE CAPABLE PF PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40KT IF NOT
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IS A COUPLE COLD POOLS CAN GET GOING.

TONIGHT... CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE ALOFT AND NO REAL SIGN OF STRATUS OR FOG.  PERSISTENCE
WOULD ARGUE FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG...BUT IT MAY NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD OR AS DENSE AS THE FOG THAT FORMED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT THIS PAST MORNING.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MORE OF THE SAME ON TUESDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE ANOTHER 1-2C.  DRY
ADIABATIC MIXING TECHNIQUE YIELDS HIGHS IN THE 93-98 RANGE.  MODELS
INDICATE A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERLY PIEDMONT AS
THE THERMALLY ENHANCE LEE TROUGH SHARPENS...WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING
OUT BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S.  MLCAPE SHOULD STILL EXCEED 1000 J/KG
AND BE HIGHEST IN THE EAST...AND THERE IS A GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG
MOST NWP (CAMS INCLUDED) THAT THE SEABREEZE WILL BE MORE ACTIVE.
STILL EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...MOSTLY IN THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHEAST.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM MONDAY...

WE'LL SEE SOME OF THE HOTTEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS YEAR DURING THE
MID-LATE WORK WEEK. ON WED WE REMAIN UNDER A FLAT BUT STRONG RIDGE
SPANNING THE MIDSOUTH AND CAROLINAS... WHILE PIEDMONT TROUGHING
PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/SREF MEAN ALL SHOW
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
BUT ALL KEEP AREAS EAST OF THERE DRY INCLUDING CENTRAL NC. WITH VERY
WEAK STEERING (500-700 MB FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS)... IT'S UNLIKELY
THAT MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO WORK INTO OUR CWA WED.
THE NAM HAS MLCAPE BRIEFLY REACHING 2000 J/KG OVER THE NRN CWA...
BUT PW IS JUST NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY AND FAIRLY STABLE AIR ABOVE 700
MB AND RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS AT PEAK HEATING. WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST ON WED... ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM WITH LESS THAN 10%
COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE CWA WHERE THE GFS HAS
MUCAPE PEAKING OVER 3000 J/KG. FORECAST THICKNESSES ARE NEARLY 15 M
ABOVE NORMAL... IN LINE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL
PROFILE SUGGESTING HIGHS WED OF 95-98. LOWS WED NIGHT 70-75. IT'S
MORE OF THE SAME FOR THU WITH A VERY SIMILAR THERMAL AND MOISTURE
PROFILE AS COMPARED TO WED... CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS
ALOFT AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE. BUT WE START TO SEE A
SLIGHT TREND TOWARD A MORE MOIST REGIME... AS THE MID LEVEL VORTEX
OVER FAR NRN QUEBEC ON WED DROPS SOUTH THEN ESE INTO THE MARITIMES
THROUGH THU... HELPING TO NUDGE THE BETTER (BUT STILL WEAK)
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW SSW INTO NC. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SW INTO THE DC AREA... AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS LOOKS TO WORK THROUGH VA INTO NE NC LATE THU BUT
PARTICULARLY THU NIGHT... WHEN THE 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES RISE A BIT
TO 6.8-7.2 C/KM. WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED STORMS VERY LATE IN THE DAY
THROUGH THU NIGHT... FOCUS MORE OVER THE NE THAN THE SW CWA. WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS... EXPECT HIGHS THU OF 95-99 AND
LOWS THU NIGHT 71-75. DESPITE EXPECTATIONS OF DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO
THE LOW-MID 60S IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH MIXING... HEAT
INDICES SHOULD STILL TOP OUT A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 100
BOTH DAYS (ESPECIALLY THU). SINCE THE FIRST WAVE OF HOT WEATHER IS
OFTEN THE MOST DANGEROUS... WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT
IN THE HWO. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

THE SMALL BUT DEEP VORTEX OVER THE NRN ND BORDER FRI MORNING DRIFTS
EASTWARD THROUGH SAT BUT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW WELL
EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIME LOW AND BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT TO THE ESE
(ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF)... BEFORE THEN DROPPING ESE ACROSS THE
NRN GREAT LAKES AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE MEAN VORTEX OVER THE
WEEKEND... CULMINATING IN SLIGHTLY MORE NARROW AND AMPLIFIED MID
LEVEL TROUGHING DOWN THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS LATE MON. THE SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL NC IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN WITH TIME DURING
THIS PERIOD... WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOL FRONT (ACCOMPANYING THE
TROUGHING ALOFT) APPROACHING FROM THE NW ON MON. MID LEVEL FLOW
MAINLY FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KTS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND NEAR 30 KTS FROM THE WSW ON MON... AND WITH STEADILY
INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS TIME GOES ON... WE SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING COVERAGE AND RISING CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THICKNESSES LEVEL OFF BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...
ALTHOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER... TEMPS SHOULD TREND FROM MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MON. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE.  A FEW STORMS OVER
WESTERN NC MAY DRIFT EAST TOWARD KINT AND KGSO THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
20-22Z TIME FRAME BEFORE DYING OFF AFTER SUNSET.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN A STORM MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS IS VERY
LOW AT THIS POINT.  TONIGHT...SOME LOW VSBYS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY STRATUS OF FOG
POTENTIAL TONIGHT.  THUS...WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS AT THIS
POINT.  TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND JUST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
557 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

NCZ008>011-026>028-041>043-077-078-088-089-172200-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-
WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
557 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN
THE SANDHILLS ON TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 100 TO 105
DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY
THIS WEEK. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A PRIMARY THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NCZ007-021>025-038>040-073>076-083>086-172200-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
CHATHAM-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
557 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN
THE SANDHILLS ON TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 100 TO 105
DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY
THIS WEEK. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A PRIMARY THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VINCENT

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