Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
253 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT TO OUR
EAST AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT... AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SETTLES
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...

REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: GROWING INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
CYCLONICALLY CURVED BUT WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT HAS LED TO
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL NC... A BIT
MORE OF THEM OVER THE HIGHER-PW EASTERN SECTIONS AS EXPECTED. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OH/PA
BORDER ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY... BENEATH A
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE NOW SHIFTING INTO GA
AND THE WRN CAROLINAS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ITSELF... AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES TO THE
ESE THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT THE SCATTERED STORMS TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY EVENING... SUPPORTED BY MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND THE WEAK
DPVA. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING PW VALUES WILL LIMIT
THE THREAT OF HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL RESPECTIVELY FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING... AND WHILE THE RISK OF STRONG
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS PERSISTS... THE MARGINAL D-CAPE OF 600-900 J/KG
SHOULD MAKE IT JUST AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE. THE LOSS OF HEATING AND
WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO DISORGANIZATION AND DISSIPATION OF
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE EARLY-MID EVENING... AND AN END TO
CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST MID-LATE EVENING. EXPECT SOME
CLOUDINESS TO HOLD OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID CLOUDS FROM
OVER KY/TN SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA WHILE SOMEWHAT LOWER SCATTERED
CLOUDS DROP SOUTHWARD POST-FRONT FROM OVER VA. EITHER WAY... EXPECT
NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY LATE TONIGHT. LOWS FROM THE
LOWER 60S NW (ROXBORO THROUGH THE TRIAD) TO THE UPPER 60S SE.

FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT: AS COMPARED TO TODAY... EXPECT LOWER PW... LOWER
HUMIDITY... AND GREATER SUNSHINE FOR SAT AS THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
SLIPS TO OUR SSE... ALONG WITH THE SURFACE FRONT... WHICH SHOULD
STALL OUT ALONG OUR SE BORDER. A FEW OF TONIGHT'S LATE-NIGHT CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING... HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND EXTRAPOLATION OF UPSTREAM CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT WE'LL SEE
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH A LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW FROM THE NE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH.
MOISTURE APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY PRECIP... SO WILL LOWER AND
TRIM BACK POPS TO JUST A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR SE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON... WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
REMAINS POSSIBLE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. FOLLOWING
THICKNESS TRENDS... EXPECT HIGHS OF 86-89. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER (ALTHOUGH GFS/NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG OR STRATUS LATE SAT
NIGHT MAINLY IN THE EAST WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LIGHT
EASTERLY)... EXPECT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING YIELDING LOWS FROM 59
FAR NORTH TO 67 SE WHERE THE COOLER AIR NEVER REALLY ARRIVES. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

...NICE WEATHER ON TAP FOR FATHERS DAY...

CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL THAT MOST OF CENTRAL NC WILL HAVE FAIR
WEATHER ON FATHERS DAY WILL NEAR TO BELOW TEMPERATURES AND MODEST
AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY. A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST
AND REMAIN OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY PROVIDING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
WARM MID LEVELS. A DECAYING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED LINGER NEAR
THE SC/NC BORDER ON SUN ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO
MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH A
LARGER CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SC BORDER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND IN A REGION OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEAK INSTABILITY. HAVE OMITTED POPS FROM THE FORECAST AS THE
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND MILD MID LEVELS SHOULD INHIBIT DEEPER UPDRAFTS
AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER
80S SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
MID 60S SOUTH. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT FOLDS EAST ON MONDAY AND BECOMES ORIENTED WEST
TO EAST AS A NEW RIDGE CENTER DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER MS
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS OUT...THE NORTHERN
STREAM DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT LIMITED CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PRIMARILY
FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT ON MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION FIRING NEAR THE APPALACHAINS AND DRIFTING EAST LATE. WITH
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH MOUNTAIN AND PERHAPS LEE TROUGH
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND THEN ACROSS THEN NORTHERN
PIEDMONT DRIVEN BY MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
THAT COULD GIVE A GLANCING BLOW TO THE CAROLINAS. BUILDING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO POSSIBLY MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BUT WHERE AND TO WHAT EXTENT IS
UNCLEAR. THE GFS OR EC EXTEND THE RIDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES OR NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WOULD ACCORDINGLY PRODUCE A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OR EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
WHILE FORECAST DETAILS SUCH AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH OR POSSIBLE MCS ACTIVITY ARE UNCLEAR...THE
TREND FOR THE WORK WEEK WOULD SUPPORT A SUMMER LIKE SCENARIO WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S SEEM REASONABLE.
-BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM THURSDAY...

THIS MORNING'S LOW CLOUD BASES HAVE RISEN TO 2500-3500 FT... MAINLY
SCATTERED... WITH MID CLOUDS ABOVE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE REST OF TODAY... ALTHOUGH BRIEF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SCATTERED (INT/GSO/RDU) TO NUMEROUS
(RWI/FAY) STORMS... PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z. A SURFACE FRONT
WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT... WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT FROM NW TO SE... SO EXPECT SHOWER/STORM
PROBABILITIES TO DWINDLE THIS EVENING... FIRST AT INT/GSO THEN
RDU/RWI AND FINALLY FAY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH ONLY FAY POTENTIALLY SEEING AN ISOLATED
STORM. AWAY FROM CONVECTION... SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT
(UNDER 10 KTS) FROM THE SW OR W THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO NW
TONIGHT... THEN TO N AND NE SAT.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SAT: VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH MON...
WITH FEW CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
INCREASING SURFACE TEMPS AND SLOWLY DEEPENING MOISTURE WITH A SLOW
BREAKDOWN OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUE/WED WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR STRATUS/FOG EACH
MORNING. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...HARTFIELD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
318 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-141100-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
318 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OVER 40
MPH THROUGH 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
429 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

NCZ038-039-132115-
RANDOLPH-DAVIDSON-
429 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF RANDOLPH AND
SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 429 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINWOOD...OR 12 MILES SOUTH
OF LEXINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ASHEBORO...LEXINGTON...RANDLEMAN...NORTH CAROLINA ZOO...SEAGROVE...
LINWOOD...RAMSEUR...DENTON...FRANKLINVILLE AND HIGH ROCK LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3577 8037 3586 7962 3555 7959 3552 8018
      3555 8021 3559 8021 3563 8026 3564 8029
      3567 8031 3568 8033 3571 8032 3572 8033
      3572 8035
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 262DEG 29KT 3564 8019

GIH

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