River Flood Warning 4, NWS Raleigh, NC

630 
WGUS82 KRAH 072131
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
431 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014



...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA...
 
  ROCKY RIVER NEAR NORWOOD AFFECTING ANSON AND STANLY COUNTIES 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

NCC007-167-080931-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140308T1945Z/
/NRWN7.1.ER.140307T1922Z.140308T0000Z.140308T0745Z.NO/
431 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROCKY RIVER NEAR NORWOOD.
* AT  4:15 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 24.2 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT 
  TONIGHT.


&&

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED

ROCKY RIVER
 NORWOOD          20  22.2 FRI 04 PM  15.9   5.3   3.8   3.2   2.9


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        NORWOOD:        212.91

&&

LAT...LON 3525 8027 3521 8015 3519 8004 3511 8009
          3515 8028                   

$$

954 
WGUS82 KRAH 080011
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
711 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014



...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA...
 
  ROCKY RIVER NEAR NORWOOD AFFECTING ANSON AND STANLY COUNTIES 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

NCC007-167-081211-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140309T1516Z/
/NRWN7.1.ER.140307T1922Z.140309T0200Z.140309T0316Z.NO/
711 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROCKY RIVER NEAR NORWOOD.
* AT  7:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.5 FEET 
  TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED

ROCKY RIVER
  NORWOOD     20  25.0 FRI 07 PM    20.3   5.4   3.9   3.3   2.9


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        NORWOOD:        212.91

&&

LAT...LON 3525 8027 3521 8015 3519 8004 3511 8009
          3515 8028                   

$$
MWS

711 
WGUS82 KRAH 080348
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC



...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA...
 
  ROCKY RIVER NEAR NORWOOD AFFECTING ANSON AND STANLY COUNTIES 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

NCC007-167-081548-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140309T0148Z/
/NRWN7.1.ER.140307T1922Z.140308T0400Z.140308T1348Z.NO/
1048 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROCKY RIVER NEAR NORWOOD.
* AT 10:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 27.2 FEET OVERNIGHT.
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURAY MORNING.


&&

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED

ROCKY RIVER
 NORWOOD          20  26.6 FRI 10 PM  22.1   5.5   3.9   3.3   3.0      


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:


        NORWOOD:        212.91


&&

LAT...LON 3525 8027 3521 8015 3519 8004 3511 8009
          3515 8028                   

$$

494 
WGUS82 KRAH 081055
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
555 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014



...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA..
  ROCKY RIVER NEAR NORWOOD AFFECTING ANSON AND STANLY COUNTIES 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

NCC007-167-082255-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140309T0148Z/
/NRWN7.1.ER.140307T1922Z.140308T0400Z.140308T1348Z.NO/
555 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROCKY RIVER NEAR NORWOOD.
* AT  5:30 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS MORNING.


&&

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    SAT  SUN   MON   TUE   WED

ROCKY RIVER
 NORWOOD          20  24.3 SAT 05 AM   22.1 5.5   3.9   3.3   3.0    



TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:



        NORWOOD:        212.91


&&

LAT...LON 3525 8027 3521 8015 3519 8004 3511 8009
          3515 8028                   

$$

556 
WGUS82 KRAH 081413
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
913 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA...
 
  HAW RIVER NEAR BYNUM AFFECTING CHATHAM COUNTY 
  NEUSE RIVER NEAR CLAYTON AFFECTING JOHNSTON COUNTY 
  NEUSE RIVER AT SMITHFIELD AFFECTING JOHNSTON COUNTY 
  ROCKY RIVER NEAR NORWOOD AFFECTING ANSON AND STANLY COUNTIES 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. BE SURE TO STAY
AWAY FROM WATER THAT IS RUNNING HIGH AND FLOWING FAST.

&&

NCC037-090213-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140309T2046Z/
/BYNN7.1.ER.140307T2045Z.140308T0746Z.140309T0846Z.NO/
913 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE HAW RIVER NEAR BYNUM.
* AT 9:00 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...THE RIVER WIDENS UP TO 400 FEET ACROSS. IT 
  FLOODS PASTURELANDS ON THE RIGHT BANK AND WOODLANDS ON THE LEFT.

&&

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU

HAW RIVER
 BYNUM            11  12.6 SAT 09 AM  10.6   8.1   6.9   6.2   5.8


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        BYNUM:          283.31
        
&&

LAT...LON 3590 7918 3582 7911 3576 7905 3569 7916
          3585 7930                   

$$

NCC101-090212-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140309T0900Z/
/CLYN7.1.ER.140308T0845Z.140308T1131Z.140308T2100Z.NO/
913 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR CLAYTON.
* AT 9:00 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...MINOR OVERFLOW OCCURS ON BOTH BANKS.

&&

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU

NEUSE RIVER
 CLAYTON           9   9.0 SAT 09 AM   8.5   7.2   6.3   5.6   5.3


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        CLAYTON:        128.41
        
&&

LAT...LON 3572 7843 3558 7829 3554 7829 3556 7835
          3569 7849                   

$$

NCC101-090212-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-140310T2300Z/
/SMFN7.1.ER.140308T0928Z.140309T0000Z.140310T1100Z.NO/
913 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEUSE RIVER AT SMITHFIELD.
* AT 8:15 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.3 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...WATER COVERS THE DIRT ROAD NEXT TO THE WATER
  TREATMENT PLANT.

&&

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU

NEUSE RIVER
 SMITHFIELD       15  15.5 SAT 08 AM  16.1  15.0  13.8  12.7  12.3


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        SMITHFIELD:      99.26
       
&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

NCC007-167-090212-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140309T0316Z/
/NRWN7.1.ER.140307T1922Z.140308T0400Z.140308T1516Z.NO/
913 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROCKY RIVER NEAR NORWOOD.
* AT 9:00 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS MORNING.


&&

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    SUN   MON   TUE   WED   

ROCKY RIVER
 NORWOOD          20  22.3 SAT 09 AM   5.5   3.9   3.3   3.0      


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        NORWOOD:        212.91

&&

LAT...LON 3525 8027 3521 8015 3519 8004 3511 8009
          3515 8028                   

$$

130 
WGUS82 KRAH 081856
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
156 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA...
 
  ROCKY RIVER NEAR NORWOOD AFFECTING ANSON AND STANLY COUNTIES
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...BE SURE TO STAY AWAY FROM WATER RUNNING HIGH
AND FLOWING FAST.

&&

NCC007-167-081926-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140309T0316Z/
/NRWN7.1.ER.140307T1922Z.140308T0400Z.140308T1808Z.NO/
156 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE ROCKY RIVER NEAR NORWOOD.
* AT 1:15 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 1:08 PM SATURDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 5.5 FEET BY SUNDAY 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT 
  OVERFLOW INTO ADJACENT LOWLANDS.

&&

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU

ROCKY RIVER
 NORWOOD          20  19.9 SAT 01 PM   5.5   3.9   3.3   2.9   2.7


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        NORWOOD:        212.91

&&

LAT...LON 3525 8027 3521 8015 3519 8004 3511 8009
          3515 8028                   

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
650 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN STRONG STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...

WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.  A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM.

THE CORE OF A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED 1005MB SURFACE LOW DUE EAST OF
CHARLESTON PER LATEST REGIONAL SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS.  THE UPPER
LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY ALONG THE NC COAST....PASSING TO THE EAST
OF HATTERAS BY 00Z THIS EVENING.  THE LARGE PRECIP SHIELD
ENCOMPASSING NEARLY ALL OF NC IS BEGINNING TO ERODE A BIT ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE AS THE DRY SLOT PUSHES NORTH.  A STRONG
FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN BAND OF PRECIP HAS PUSHED NORTH
OF I-40....AND WITHIN THIS BAND PRECIP HAS TRANSITIONED FROM
FREEZING RAIN TO PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND
SLEET...MAINLY FROM PERSON COUNTY DOWN TO THE TRIAD.  A FEW REPORTS
HAVE COME IN OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...RANGING FROM 0.5"
TO NEAR 2.5" IN PERSON COUNTY.  ICE AMOUNTS ARE HARDER TO COME
BY...BUT AN ICE SENSOR AT KINT REPORTS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.  POWER
OUTAGES ARE INCREASING VERY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
TRIAD...NO DOUBT AIDED BY THE REGULAR WIND GUSTS OF 25-30MPH.

WHILE THE PRIMARY PRECIP BAND IS PUSHING NORTH TOWARD THE VA
BORDER...THE SPC MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWS STRONG 850-700MB FGEN
DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS AREA...WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE REGION.  THE APPROACHING DRY SLOT WILL TEND TO CUT DOWN ON
QPF WITH TIME...BUT EXPECT THAT PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  MEANWHILE...IR IMAGERY
INDICATES CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING RAPIDLY OVER WESTERN NC/SC
WHICH SUGGESTS THE DEFORMATION BAND IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE.
MODELS BRING THE DEFORMATION BAND WITH AND ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF
QPF DURING THE DAY.

THE SURFACE WETBULB FREEZING LINE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM LEXINGTON-
ASHEBORO-CHAPEL HILL-HENDERSON...AND IS BEGINNING REINFORCED BY A SURGE
OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA.
NORTH OF THIS LINE...FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
PTYPE...WITH PERIODS OF SLEET AND SNOW WITH HEAVIER PRECIP BANDS.
THE WETBULB TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO CREEP UP AFTER SUNRISE WITH A
LITTLE WARMING...BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT FOR A COUPLE ADDITIONAL HOURS.  BEYOND 15Z...THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT SOME DYNAMIC COOLING AND HIGHER PRECIP RATES WITH THE
DEFORMATION BAND MAY ERODE THE 1-2C WARM NOSE (06Z KGSO RAOB) AN
ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW/SLEET THROUGH MIDDAY.  WITH SURFACE TEMPS
OF 32-34...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIMITED. CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS LOW...BUT IT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING
COUNTIES AND WOULD NOT REQUIRE UPGRADING.

THE OTHER CONCERN WE HAVE ARE THE STEADY 30-35KT GUSTS IN THE
EAST.  WHEN COMBINED WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN/WILL
FALL TODAY AND WET SOIL...WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT ADDITIONAL DOWNED
TREES.  THERE ARE OF COURSE THOUSANDS OF POWER OUTAGES IN THE WEST
DUE TO WIND AND  ICING...SO THE EASIEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO ISSUE
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.  THIS WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL
6PM TODAY.

TONIGHT...PRECIP PULLS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD CLEAR THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH CLEARING SKIES.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWS WILL DIP TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN THE WEST...SO BLACK ICE IS AT LEAST
WORTH NOTING AND CAN BE ADDRESSED LATER.  LOWS 30-34.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING WELL OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC BY DAYBREAK SAT... WITH FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND A
DRY/STABLE COLUMN. WE MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW LOW STRATUS AT DAYBREAK
BUT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND MIXING SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS BY
MID MORNING. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS FROM 63-
67. THE SPLIT FLOW PERSISTS OVER NOAM THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES... WHILE A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NRN
MEXICO. THIS APPROACHING SHEAR AXIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE
FRONT... AND THESE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID CLOUDS SAT NIGHT.
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT... WITH LOWS 40-45.

FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST/CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PORTION CONTINUES TO HANG BACK ACROSS TX AND NW MEXICO. THE NAM IS
WEAKEST WITH THIS SOUTHERN TROUGH AND HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. PREFER THE SLOWER/STRONGER GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION BASED ON ITS CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT OF THE OP EC WITH
ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE NC/VA LINE (IN LINE WITH THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS ALOFT)
SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE QUICK PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OUT
OVER THE OPEN NW ATLANTIC SHOULD ALLOW A REBOUNDING OF MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES DURING THE DAY... SUCH THAT WE SHOULD
SEE MINIMAL SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT FROM THIS GLANCING BLOW OF THE
BACKDOOR FRONT... ASIDE FROM A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUD COVER. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN DOWNSLOPE OUT OF THE NW. THICKNESSES HOLD A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL... SUPPORTING HIGHS FROM 62 NORTH TO 69 SOUTH.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUN NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL
BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO WSW (AS THE GFS INDICATES) MAY
BRING IN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME MORNING STRATUS/FOG.
LOWS 38-44. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM FRIDAY...

FOR MON/TUE: GENERALLY QUIET WITH A FLAT WNW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A W-
E ORIENTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SITUATED OVER THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS EXPECTED
TO OPEN UP AND TRACK EASTWARD TO THE NW GULF MON NIGHT/TUE
(PROPELLED BY A DIGGING TROUGH... WHICH SHOULD RAISE HEIGHTS OVER
THE CAROLINAS... INSTIGATING A STRENGTHENING SW SURFACE FLOW AND
DRAWING IN WARMER AIR. EXPECT A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH A PASSING
DISTURBANCE JUST TO OUR NNE... BUT OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF
CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THICKNESSES AROUND 20 M
ABOVE NORMAL MON MORNING AND AROUND 30 M ABOVE NORMAL TUE MORNING.
WILL FINALLY SEE SOME SPRINGLIKE WEATHER... WITH HIGHS OF 65-70 MON
AND 70-75 TUE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

FOR WED/THU: THE NW GULF WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO KICK TO THE ENE
WHILE DAMPENING OUT... AS DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH
DEEPER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS... DIGGING THIS TROUGH WELL INTO THE
SRN PLAINS AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM THE WEST AND PHASES WITH
THE NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD BY THU. THE GFS HANGS
THIS TROUGH BACK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BUT ALLOWS AMPLIFICATION OF
THE NRN STREAM OVER THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES DURING THIS
TIME. BOTH SOLUTIONS BRING A SURFACE LOW WITH ATTENDANT FRONT INTO
AND THROUGH NC LATE WED INTO THU... BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
STARTING WED AND EXTENDING INTO THU... WITH COLDER POST-FRONTAL AIR
MOVING IN ON THU. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION FOR THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER (AS THE DETAILS ARE TOUGH TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME)
BUT LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF TIMING... WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING
LATE TUE NIGHT STRETCHING THROUGH WED/WED NIGHT... EXITING EARLY
THU. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS WED... A BIT COOLER BUT CONTINUED
FAIRLY MILD... WITH MID-UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS. THICKNESSES SUPPORT
HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S FOR THU. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOISING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PIEDMONT WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS (FROM THE NORTHEAST)
WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35KTS WILL OCCUR.

FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET WILL CONTINUE AT KINT/KGSO THROUGH 14-
15Z BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO PREDOMINATELY RAIN.  RAIN MAY MIX WITH
SLEET AND SNOW LATE THIS MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW
AT THE MOMENT.  ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST...RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z.  CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AT
IFR LEVELS...WITH IMPROVEMENT ONLY TO COME THIS EVENING AS OVERNIGHT
AS SOME DRIER AIR SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.  HOWEVER...NEAR SURFACE MISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE VERY MUCH...AND WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LAST EVENING
AND TODAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ007-021>023-
038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ008>010-
024-025-039-040-073-074.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
439 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

NCZ011-026>028-041>043-075>078-083>086-088-089-080945-
HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE-
HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
439 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY... INCLUDING SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS... AND WIND GUSTS.

NCZ008>010-025-040-073-074-080945-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-DURHAM-CHATHAM-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
439 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY... INCLUDING SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS... AND WIND GUSTS.

NCZ007-021>024-038-039-080945-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
439 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY... INCLUDING SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS... AND WIND GUSTS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
810 AM EST FRI MAR 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     FREEZING RAIN    WARRENTON               36.40N  78.16W
03/07/2014  E0.00 INCH       WARREN             NC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            VERY LITTLE ICING. SOME GLAZING ON ROADS RESULTED IN
            BLACK ICE LIKE CONDITIONS EARLIER IN SPOTS. VERY LITTLE
            OR NO ACCUMULATION OF ICE OR SLEET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1401123

DJF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
814 AM EST FRI MAR 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     FREEZING RAIN    OXFORD                  36.31N  78.59W
03/07/2014  E0.25 INCH       GRANVILLE          NC   POST OFFICE

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1401124

GIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
911 AM EST FRI MAR 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 AM     FREEZING RAIN    2 SE GORDONTOWN         35.73N  80.10W
03/07/2014  E0.25 INCH       DAVIDSON           NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1401125

TCC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
915 AM EST FRI MAR 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     FREEZING RAIN    BURLINGTON              36.08N  79.45W
03/07/2014  E0.30 INCH       ALAMANCE           NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

0845 AM     SLEET            BURLINGTON              36.08N  79.45W
03/07/2014  E0.5 INCH        ALAMANCE           NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1401126
EVENT NUMBER RAH1401127

DJF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
917 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

NCZ007-008-021>025-038>040-071500-
PERSON-GUILFORD-RANDOLPH-GRANVILLE-ORANGE-FORSYTH-CHATHAM-ALAMANCE-
DAVIDSON-DURHAM-
917 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...

AT 915 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST
FROM LEXINGTON TO GREENSBORO...BURLINGTON...AND ROXBORO. A
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN TO HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS HEAVY BAND OF PRECIPITATION AS IT PERSISTS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR THROUGH NOON.

RESIDENTS IN OR NEAR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION...LEXINGTON...WINSTON-
SALEM...HIGH POINT...GREENSBORO...BURLINGTON...UNION RIDGE...
CARR...BUSHY FORK...ROUGEMONT...AND ROXBORO.

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR DAVIDSON...
RANDOLPH...FORSYTH...GUILFORD...ALAMANCE...ORANGE...AND PERSON
COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3609 7871 3566 7956 3552 7957 3550 8014
      3568 8033 3572 8033 3574 8046 3582 8047
      3584 8040 3587 8039 3589 8037 3626 8036
      3624 7916 3654 7913 3654 7849
TIME...MOT...LOC 1355Z 191DEG 1KT 3647 7884 3570 8003

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
921 AM EST FRI MAR 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     FREEZING RAIN    3 SSW WINSTON-SALEM     36.06N  80.29W
03/07/2014  E0.40 INCH       FORSYTH            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 SLEET AND SNOW DEPTH ON GROUND

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1401133

TCC