Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PCPN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.  UPR LOW OVR NRN NV THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVR CENTRAL UT BY 12Z
WED. THE S TO SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL ALLOW
MSTR TO CONTINUE STREAMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 1 INCH OVR SOUTH CENTRAL CO...TO ABOUT 1.4 INCHES OVR
THE FAR SERN PLAINS...WITH AROUND 0.8 INCH OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS.
BY LATE MORNING SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN
DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVR THE SRN MTNS...THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD.
AS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THE HIGH RES FORECAST MODELS SHOWING
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND SRN BORDER AREA OF THE SERN PLAINS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE TSTMS THEN MOVE AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY BY AROUND 5 DEGREES IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25
CORRIDOR...WITH AROUND NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED OVR THE FAR SERN
PLAINS.

TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS ERN CO. THIS SHOULD HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES AND SHOULD
KEEP PCPN CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN
PLAINS THRU AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...PROBABLY A LITTLE LONGER.

HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS. WILL DELAY
THE START OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BY A COUPLE HOURS...BUT WILL
LEAVE THE END TIME OF 09Z AS IT IS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ...MAINLY FROM EL PASO COUNTY
SOUTHEASTWARD TO KIOWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK...BUT HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND STRONG GUSTS COULD
OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...COOL AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY...

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER...MAIN THEME HAS BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN EARLY WEDNESDAY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH THEN CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD
SEE POPS CRANKING UP ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
INCREASING UVV AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF SAID SYSTEM. A SHORT WAVE
EJECTING OFF PARENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
KEEP POPS UP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHT LULL EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS...LEADING TO
TRAINING OF STORMS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL PERSISTING. SUBSIDENT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY
INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
SCATTERED POPS SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMPS ALOFT COOLING WITH THE PASSING
TROUGH...SHOULD SEE HIGHS BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WELL BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING ON FRIDAY. COULD ALSO SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE HIGHER MTN PEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
COOL FALL LIKE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND STILL REMAINS IN THE
OFFING INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS DRIER BUT BRISK
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO FIRE OFF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHICH WOULD
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT OVER THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MONSOON MOISTURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
OVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME. LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED SMALL HAIL.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ066>068-072>089-
093>099.

&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1108 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-271715-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1108 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREATS TODAY WILL BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON BURN SCARS AND IN URBAN AREAS. ONE OR TWO
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE...MAINLY
OVER EL PASO...CROWLEY AND KIOWA COUNTIES...WITH HAIL AROUND 1
INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE STATE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS WELL. WITH ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHER STORM
THREATS WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE
WILL...HOWEVER...BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HODANISH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1224 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

COZ074-088-261900-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT CO-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
1224 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 100 PM MDT...

AT 1224 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SEGUNDO...OR 14 MILES WEST OF TRINIDAD...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TRINIDAD...COKEDALE...STARKVILLE...BONCARBO...SEGUNDO AND WESTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3714 10489 3735 10461 3712 10442 3699 10477
      3700 10477
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 236DEG 16KT 3711 10476

ETP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
100 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

COZ081-084-085-261930-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT
CO-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN 7500 AND
11000 FT CO-
100 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TELLER AND
NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM MDT...

AT 100 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHIPITA PARK...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLORADO
SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO .20 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WALDO
CANYON BURN SCAR WITH THIS STORM...HOWEVER IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES
FURTHER THEN HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHERN COLORADO SPRINGS...WOODLAND PARK...MONUMENT...AIR FORCE
ACADEMY...MANITOU SPRINGS...GREEN MOUNTAIN FALLS...BLACK FOREST...
CHIPITA PARK...CASCADE...GLENEAGLE AND CRYSTOLA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3895 10462 3884 10497 3899 10509 3913 10487
      3913 10476
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 239DEG 14KT 3896 10495

ETP