Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
308 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...WET THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...

A WET EVENING SHAPING UP FOR MANY ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
PROGRESSIVELY LESS WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AS YOU HEAD EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS TOWARD KANSAS. PRIMARY CULPRITS TONIGHT ARE A STRONG
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH...GOOD AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL USPLOPE FLOW...AND SLOW AND/OR BACK BUILDING
STORM MOTIONS. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.
ALSO...SOME HAIL...GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS EVENING.
OTHER CONCERNS...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40...OR POSSIBLY 50
MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION.

DRIER TOMORROW...WITH MOST CONVECTION CONFINED TO AREAS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. STILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT CONVECTION. LW

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT TERRAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE ROCKIES...BUT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL AND MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CWA...EXPECT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  CAPE VALUES ARE BELOW 1000 J/KG...SO
WOULD NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN MARGINAL PULSE SEVERE STORMS.
THE MAIN RISKS EACH DAY WOULD BE STORMS THAT HIT BURN SCARS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CHANCES FOR RAIN ON THE PLAINS WILL BE QUITE
LOW... WHERE THE MOST STABLE AIR WILL BE...AND THE MONSOON
PLUME...AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH BE
OVER WESTERN COLORADO...SO WE WILL BE WATCHING THE WEST FORK COMPLEX
BURN SCARS CLOSELY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HAVE SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS BUT DETAILS ARE DIFFERENT IN THE CURRENT AVAILABLE RUNS.
GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE MAIN
TROUGH. THE SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL DETERMINE THE TIMING OF A
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF COLORADO.
RIGHT NOW THE FOCUS FOR THAT IS NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE SPEED OF THAT
FEATURE WILL ALSO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF RAINFALL
DURING THURSDAY.  FOR NOW...WILL COVER WILL GENERAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS INDICATE THAT ZONAL FLOW WILL
PREDOMINATE WITH UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH...AND MONSOON MOISTURE
SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. STILL ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOR ALL 3
TAF SITES. RISK OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY AFTER 06Z. COULD SEE MVFR-IFR CIGS WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS...ALONG WITH SOME SMALL
HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH LOCALLY. DRIER TOMORROW
WITH MOST CONVECTION CONFINED TO AREAS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
STILL LOCAL INTENSE CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH THAT ACTIVITY. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1150 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-111800-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1150 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE MOUNTAINS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND
AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD OVER
THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR OUT TOWARD KANSAS.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND LIGHTNING. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR BURN SCARS...URBAN AREAS...AND OTHER
FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO
NICKEL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON THE
PLAINS...VERY FEW IF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OVER THE PLAINS...ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

ALL STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE CAPABLE OF DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

50/50

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