Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
321 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY EAST OF I-25...

THE MOST POTENT STORMS OF THE DAY HAVE BEEN ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY...MAINLY EAST OF I-25.  THIS AREA IS BEING LIFTED BY
SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW AND STILL HAS SOME DECENT SURFACE
MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S...TO WORK WITH. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IS CONCERNED WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT NEARING
THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IMPACTING
KIOWA COUNTY...AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGRESS. COULD BE THAT
OUTFLOW BEING GENERATED FROM THE CONVECTION RUNNING FROM FALCON TO
PUNKIN CENTER TO STRATTON...WILL KICK OFF SOME MORE STORMS AS IT
HEADS SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING...HELPING TO REALIZE THAT HAIL
AND WIND THREAT.

OTHER AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN COLORADO HAVE BEEN PRETTY QUIET SO FAR
TODAY.  LAS ANIMAS COUNTY HAS HAD SOME ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS EAST OF TRINIDAD.  THIS AREA...AND EASTWARD ACROSS BACA
COUNTY...MAY FLARE UP MORE THIS EVENING...PER HIGH RES MODELS...AS
BETTER MOISTURE IS ENCOUNTERED.  OTHER AREAS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
UNEVENTFUL TODAY.  THE MOUNTAINS HAVE REALLY BEEN STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ANYTHING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WIDESPREAD IN THE 20S AND
30S.  THIS DRY AIR HAS EVEN SPREAD INTO WESTERN EL PASO AND TELLER
COUNTY FOR THE TIME BEING...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE PRESENTLY IN THE
30S.  THIS IS REALLY DISABLING CONVECTION ACROSS THE WALDO SCAR AND
SURROUNDING AREAS FOR THE TIME BEING. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT
SOME CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...JUST DEPENDING ON WHERE OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT
CONVECTION ENDS UP.

FOR TOMORROW...A BOUNDARY WILL COME SOUTH AND BACK UP TO THE
MOUNTAINS...PUTTING A COOLER AND WETTER AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA.  INITIALLY...STABILITY MAY LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF CONVECTION
SUNDAY...BUT EVENTUALLY THINGS SHOULD GET GOING.  THERE COULD BE
SHOWERS AND LOW INTENSITY STORMS AROUND EARLY IN THE DAY...EVEN IN
THE MORNING.  THEN...IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE STORM
INTENSITIES PICK UP ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE ANY CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN FIRST...WITH ACTIVITY THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT
ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING.  COULD BE SOME SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.  HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE AT AN INCREASED LEVEL OF THREAT.  BURN SCARS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS WELL AS OTHER AREAS.  LIGHTNING...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE A
HAZARD.  LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS SHOULD
ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN STORMS TOMORROW...AS MODELS SHOW MOIST
EASTERLY WINDS PUSHING UP TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. LW

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE YET DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS
REGARDING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH THE GFS HAVING MORE AND
LONGER LASTING RAINFALL THAN THE NAM. WILL DO A BLEND BETWEEN THE
TWO AND KEEP POPS IN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREAS...INCLUDING THE RATON RIDGE AND MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THE
FOCUS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT TERRAIN...WITH THE PLAINS POTENTIALLY
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES WILL MOVE TOWARD THE ROCKIES...AND DRAW ABUNDANT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THURSDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE ISSUES WITH THE WEST FORK COMPLEX BURN
SCARS...AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SENDING A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION EASTWARD DURING
THURSDAY. THIS DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN PUSHES MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND PUTS US IN A COOL...RELATIVELY STABLE AIR
MASS

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS
WITH THE EUROPEAN NOW THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL...CARRYING THE
UPPER LOW INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER IDAHO AND
WYOMING.  IF THE GFS IS MORE CORRECT...THERE WOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR PLAINS...AND IF THE
EUROPEAN IS MORE CORRECT...IT WOULD BE DRIER. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS NEXT 24 HRS...INCLUDING
ALL 3 TAF SITES. EXPECT ISOLATED TSRA TO CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. WILL CONTINUE VCTS MENTION AT KCOS AND KPUB.
WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF KALS AS AIR MASS LOOKING TOO DRY THERE
THIS EVENING. BRIEF LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER TSRA
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING.

TOMORROW...A COOL FRONT WILL BACK UP INTO THE MOUNTAINS BRINGING A
COOLER AND WETTER AIR MASS BACK INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM
STORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL GO UP SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE FROM STRONGEST
STORMS. OTHERWISE...THREATS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
PLAINS...AS WELL AS MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...SHOULD ALL SEE
AN UPSWING IN ACTIVITY TOMORROW. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1152 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-101800-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1152 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO STRONGER
STORMS...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH...WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...SPREADING TO THE EASTERN PLAINS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHTING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING IN FLOOD
PRONE AREAS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE MONSOON WILL SHIFT TO WESTERN COLORADO
BY WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POTENTIAL FLOODING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

50/50

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
446 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

COZ099-092315-
SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY CO-
446 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BACA COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MDT...

AT 446 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PRITCHETT...OR 22 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMPO.

LAT...LON 3713 10305 3731 10306 3735 10260 3710 10258
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 267DEG 24KT 3723 10296

28

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