Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1144 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

UPDATED TO BRING IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO SHORT TERM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

CURRENTLY...

SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SOME CLOUDS WERE NOTED
OVER THE MTNS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. SOME LLVL MOISTURE WAS STILL
NOTED OVER THE PLAINS...AS RH VALUES OVER THE LAMAR AREA WERE ABOVE
90% AND SOME FOG WAS NOTED. ON THE LARGE SCALE...MODEST NW FLOW WAS
STILL NOTED OVER THE REGION.

TODAY...

FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM NW FLOW TO WEAKER WEST
FLOW AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE STATE OF CO. BEST DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. TWO AREAS OF INTEREST
ARE NOTED TODAY...THE FIRST BEING THE SAN JUANS AND THE 2ND...THE
FAR E PLAINS.

MODELS ARE PEGGING THE SAN JUANS FOR ENHANCED PRECIP TODAY. AMOUNTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE...BUT THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SAN JUANS AND POSSIBLY THE ADJ SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL BE HIGHER
TODAY...AND HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THIS REGION DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TIME PD. THE BURN SCARS IN THE SAN JUANS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CAREFULLY.

GUIDANCE ALSO HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SPC ALSO NOTES WE COULD SEE A
MARGINAL SEVERE STORM OVER THIS REGION DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME
PD.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...LOW END SCT POPS ARE IN ORDER
FOR THE REST OF THE HIGHER TRRN WITH ISOLD POPS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT...

BEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WITH
POPS ENDING AROUND SUNSET OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
\/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

...HOT...

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE MAIN QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH DIURNAL CONVECTION THERE WILL BE AND THE CONSEQUENTIAL
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS EACH DAY. THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM AN
ONGOING...ALBEIT WEAKENED...MONSOON WILL HAVE A SAY IN JUST
HOW HOT IT GETS EACH AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS TO BE A
TAD TOO HOT GIVEN THE MOISTURE THAT WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND.
GFS MOS...FOR EXAMPLE...PROGS 104 DEGREES FOR PUEBLO ON
MONDAY...WHICH PROBABLY WILL NOT BE REALIZED WITHOUT STRONG W-SW
FLOW ALOFT. COMPLICATING THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS A SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE EC KEEPS 600 DM H5 HIGH
OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION...WHILE THE GFS SUBTLY SHIFTS THE HIGH
EWD INTO ERN NM BY MID-WEEK. IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES...THAT
SHOULD ALLOW BETTER SRLY MONSOONAL FLOW TO PERSIST AND INCREASE
THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. THAT SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPS BELOW 100 DEGREES. YET...THE
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE IS STILL ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR KPUB SUN-TUE.
AND THE EC MOS IS EVEN AT 100 DEGREES FOR MONDAY. BOTTOM LINE...IT
WILL BE HOT AND LIKELY THE HOTTEST STRETCH OF THE SUMMER...AT
LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER THAN THAT. STILL
SHOULD SEE SCT STORMS ON SUNDAY...THEN THE DRY AIR FROM THE DESERT
SW KICKS IN ON MON-TUE...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE HOTTEST DAYS OF
THE PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE
WEEK...SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE MONSOONAL ACTIVITY FOR THE END
OF JULY. LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS CALL FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A
WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE AUGUST...SO IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE MONSOON
WILL STAY QUIET FOR VERY LONG. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE MAY DRIFT OFF INTO THE ADJACENT HIGHER
TERRAIN...AFFECTING KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED. SMOKE HAS BEEN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS KCOS AND KPUB...THOUGH VIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW 6 MILES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FOR THE TAF SITES
BY 03Z...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1146 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-201800-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1146 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM STORMS
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...GENERALLY EAST OF LA JUNTA...A
MARGINAL SEVERE STORM MAY OCCUR...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY OCCUR
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE PLAINS. THE
MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE LIGHTING AND LOCALLY GUST WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS.

31/06

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
157 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

COZ081-084-085-192030-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT
CO-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN 7500 AND
11000 FT CO-
157 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TELLER AND
NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM MDT...

AT 156 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WOODLAND PARK...OR 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF
COLORADO SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO .20 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WALDO BURN
SCAR WITH THIS STORM...HOWEVER IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES FURTHER
THEN HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO SPRINGS...WOODLAND PARK...MONUMENT...AIR FORCE
ACADEMY...MANITOU SPRINGS...GREEN MOUNTAIN FALLS...CHIPITA PARK...
CASCADE...GLENEAGLE AND CRYSTOLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3899 10517 3913 10509 3906 10478 3883 10491
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 292DEG 13KT 3903 10508

KT