Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
352 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH FORECAST
DISTRICT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE AT TIMES INTO WEDNESDAY AS
ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...ESPECIALLY BY LATER WEDNESDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EXISTS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY LATER WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SINCE LAST FRIDAY...STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER AREA BURN SCARS AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST FOUR DAYS(SINCE LAST FRIDAY0. WILL
CONTINUE WITH EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EL PASO AND TELLER
COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

ALSO...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN
ANTICIPATED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...STILL PRETTY ACTIVE THROUGH THURSDAY BUT THEN DRIER AND WARMER...

MODELS STILL SHOW DECENT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY...MAINLY
ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF I-25...WITH NOT SO MUCH THREAT
OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  ON THIS DAY...THE AREA
IS STILL UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF WEDNESDAY'S
STRONG SHORTWAVE.  MONSOON MOISTURE HASN'T YET FLUSHED OUT OF THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES.  SO...THREATS OF HEAVY
RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS DAY.

FINALLY...ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA AND
BEGINS TO WARM AND DRY THE AIR MASS OVER COLORADO SIGNIFICANTLY.
STARTING THIS DAY AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO HOT WEATHER AND MORE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS.  BUT...BECAUSE OF THE HOTTER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...STORM THREATS WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD
HIGH WINDS AND LIGHTNING.  THERE WILL STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN...HOWEVER.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER THE PLAINS. LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 351 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN BY LATER WEDNESDAY IN AND NEAR
THE TAF SITES WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL POSSIBLE.  THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ081-082-084-
085.

&&

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1129 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-161730-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1129 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE AIR TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH FORM TODAY WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND SOME PEA SIZED HAIL.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...WITH HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL
SIZE...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH AT TIMES AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. ALL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST FOR THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS WILL
BECOME WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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