Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
347 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...ANOTHER EVENING OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WIND
AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...

THE CYCLE CONTINUES.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH DECENT MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE FIRED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ARE MAKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS.  ANOTHER
AREA OF CONVECTIVE INTEREST LIES RIGHT ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER
ADJACENT TO KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES...WHERE STUFF IS BOILING
ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY/MCS STRUCTURE.

FLOW ALOFT IS A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY TODAY...RESULTING IN A
LITTLE BETTER SHEAR.  ALSO SURFACE MOISTURE AND TEMPS ARE A LITTLE
HIGHER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN BETTER CAPE...ESPECIALLY
AS YOU HEAD EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE VALUES ARE HIGHEST.
SO...A LITTLE BETTER SEVERE HAIL THREAT TODAY...ALONG WITH THE
STRONG WIND...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING THREATS.  ACTIVITY COULD
STRAGGLE WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AS IT
DID THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...WE APPEAR TO START PULLING SOME DRIER AIR IN FROM THE
WEST...PUSHING THE MOST WIDESPREAD...INTENSE ACTIVITY OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL HAVE
MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH ADEQUATE
HEATING TO FIRE OFF STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THAT CAN THEN
TRANSITION EAST ONTO THE PLAINS. STORMS THAT DO GO UP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AGAIN...WITH THREATS OF LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. LW

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

STILL ANTICIPATE THAT A RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT(WHICH IS FURTHER EAST
THAN NOTED PAST FEW DAYS AS SOME DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO FILTER INTO
PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY).
A GENERALLY DRIER AND WARMER TREND IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEARS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER(INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN) OVER PRIMARILY
FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A GENERALLY DRIER(ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT) AND WARMER PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 700MB
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR RISE TO NEAR 20C AT
TIMES IN COMBINATION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW
TRANSITIONING TO AN UPPER RIDGING PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FINALLY ABOVE SEASONAL LATE JUNE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH EVEN THE CENTURY MARK BEING CHALLENGED AT TIMES DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

MAIN CONCERNS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS...PARTICULARLY KCOS AND KPUB. STORMS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 01Z. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.  OTHER CONCERNS WILL
INCLUDE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT
OF STORMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVE...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF LOW
CIGS FOR WED MORNING...BUT PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME IS TOO LOW TO
EXPLICITLY MENTION IN THE TAFS.

FOR TOMORROW...THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PUSHED OFF TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  HOWEVER...STILL ENOUGH
HEATING AND SURFACE MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY ORIGINATING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THREATS WILL AGAIN INCLUDE
LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
158 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-252000-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
158 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
ADDITION TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING. EAST OF INTERSTATE
25...A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
TURN SEVERE...AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW BUT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE COLORADO'S NUMBER ONE WEATHER
THREAT...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
555 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

COZ094-097-099-250030-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY CO-
LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY CO-
555 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS...
NORTHWESTERN BACA AND SOUTH CENTRAL BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

AT 555 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HIGBEE...OR 29 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NORTH LA JUNTA...MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL LAS
ANIMAS...NORTHWESTERN BACA AND SOUTH CENTRAL BENT COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3765 10329 3778 10314 3757 10283 3738 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 310DEG 26KT 3767 10317

MW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
623 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

COZ099-250100-
SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY CO-
623 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BACA COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM MDT...

AT 625 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER STONINGTON...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SAUNDERS ELEVA...MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STONINGTON AND OPEN COUNTRY OF SOUTHEASTERN BACA COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3700 10243 3736 10237 3737 10235 3739 10204
      3700 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 348DEG 27KT 3731 10215

MW