Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1223 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM FORECASTS WITH LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA. LW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

UPDATED TO TWEAK POPS AND SKY COVERAGE BASED ON RECENT SAT
AND RADAR TRENDS. STILL SEEING SOME ISOLD LTG IN KIOWA AND BACA
COUNTIES...WHICH SHOULD WIND DOWN A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...THEN ON TO ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

FAIR AMOUNT OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THIS MORNING...WITH ONE CLUSTER
OVER NW KS AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.
FORTUNATELY...STORMS ARE STAYING OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA SO FAR. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES AS
OF 330 AM LOCAL TIME. SO...WILL SEE SOME ISOLD TS POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS AND THE RATON MESA AREA. NAM
SHOWS EXPANDING COVERAGE THROUGH 18Z...BUT BELIEVE IT IS OVERDONE
SO WILL STICK WITH LOW POPS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...AND BULK SHEARS ARE STILL RESPECTABLE. MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SHORT-WAVE RIDGING WHICH COULD INHIBIT T-
STORM DEVELOPMENT. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE...BUT WITH HE GOOD MOISTURE AROUND IT WONT
TAKE MUCH TO GET STORMS GOING. BEST BET FOR SVR WX LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF I-25...PARTICULARLY OVER KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS...AND BACA
COUNTIES. CAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE AND BULK SHEAR FROM
40-50 KTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A FEW
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT AGAIN A LOW GRADE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY OF THE MORE ISOLATED OR STRONGER CELLS. STORMS WILL
LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS OR MCS'S THIS EVENING OVER
THE SERN PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON THE PLAINS WED AND
THU. STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS
WED WHILE THE FAR E PLAINS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG TO SVR
STORMS THU. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND WINDS TO 70 MPH. OVER THE MTNS AND VALLEYS
ONLY HIGH BASED ISOLD STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE CONVECTION WED
EVENING MAY LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THU.

FRIDAY...IT WILL WARM AND DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE DRYLINE MAY BE ACTIVE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE DRYLINE LOCATION WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF A 50O MB TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY.
HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S MOST OF THE PLAINS.

A WEAK COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE PLAINS LATE FRI
NITE/EARLY SAT MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO
THE REGION SAT. ALTHOUGH SFC FLOW WILL BE UPSLOPE SAT...MSTR
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LACKING...SO ISOLD POPS AT BEST FOR
SAT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

ZONAL FLOW WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH WEAK UPSLOPE AT
THE SFC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLD STORMS OVER MAINLY THE PLAINS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO
6F ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS POSSIBLE BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK IT MAY GET A
BIT WETTER ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE
PLAINS. \/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

MAIN AVN CONCERNS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TS AT THE
TERMINALS...PARTICULARLY KCOS AND KPUB. STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
FROM 20Z THROUGH 00Z THIS EVE. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL
COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVE...THERE COULD BE AREAS OF LOW CIGS
FOR WED MORNING...BUT PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME IS TOO LOW TO
EXPLICITLY MENTION IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
158 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-252000-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
158 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
ADDITION TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING. EAST OF INTERSTATE
25...A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL LIKELY
TURN SEVERE...AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW BUT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE COLORADO'S NUMBER ONE WEATHER
THREAT...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
245 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     HAIL             2 NE FALCON             38.95N 104.59W
06/24/2014  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

COZ081-084-085-242115-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT
CO-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN 7500 AND
11000 FT CO-
247 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL TELLER AND WEST
CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

AT 245 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR DIVIDE...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLORADO
SPRINGS. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO .20 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WALDO
CANYON BURN SCAR WITH THIS STORM...HOWEVER IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES
FURTHER THEN HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE STRONGEST
PORTION OF THE STORM WILL LIKELY MISS THE BURN SCAR TO THE
SOUTH...BUT THOSE ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE BURN SCAR SHOULD
BE PREPARED IN CASE THIS CELL STRENGTHENS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTERN COLORADO SPRINGS...WOODLAND PARK...MANITOU SPRINGS...GREEN
MOUNTAIN FALLS...CHIPITA PARK...CASCADE...CRYSTOLA AND DIVIDE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3892 10520 3901 10497 3894 10481 3885 10488
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 306DEG 3KT 3894 10509

KAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
301 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0239 PM     HAIL             2 NNE FALCON            38.96N 104.61W
06/24/2014  M1.50 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
301 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

COZ084-085-242130-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT
CO-
301 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM MDT...

AT 300 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PEYTON...OR 23 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLORADO
SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EASTERN COLORADO SPRINGS...CALHAN...TRUCKTON...FALCON...ELLICOTT...
PEYTON...YODER AND CIMARRON HILLS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3909 10405 3902 10405 3872 10417 3889 10469
      3913 10448
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 285DEG 10KT 3897 10443

KAM

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