Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
328 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...

SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS MAINTAINED DEW POINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST
ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT
MOVES IN.  AS THESE MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND
ENCOUNTER CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG...EXPECT RAPID THUNDERSTORM
INTENSIFICATION.  DEEP LAYER SHEARS ON THE ORDER OF 40 KTS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.  MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL UP TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60
MPH.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL HELICITIES ARE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH WITH SFC
WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY...STILL CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AS LCLS WILL BE LOWER AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF 0-3KM
CAPE...WHICH COULD LOCALLY INTENSIFY SPIN UPS ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS
TODAY.  ALTHOUGH THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT WALDO BURN SCAR (MOST
VULNERABLE BURN SCAR TO RUN-OFF PROBLEMS) WILL GET MISSED...WITH ALL
THE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AN UNLUCKY STRIKE COULD CERTAINLY
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. SAME WILL BE TRUE FOR THE OTHER BURN SCARS
IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.  THOSE IN AND NEAR THE BURN SCARS SHOULD MAINTAIN A
HEIGHTENED AWARENESS OF THE WEATHER TODAY.  ACTIVITY MARCHES
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING WITH MOST HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WAA OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH MAY KEEP GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

VERY DRY SFC DEW POINTS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF A CAP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER TROF
APPROACHING OUT WEST...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND MOVE OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  APPEARS HIGHEST CAPE AND BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER TOMORROW...BUT 0-6KM
SHEARS ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS...SO IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
CAN BE REALIZED IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...THEN THERE
WILL BE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.  GREATEST CONCERN THOUGH WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE BURN SCARS.  THIS RISK MAY
ACTUALLY INCREASE FOR SATURDAY.  WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A LOOK AT
HIGH RES MODELS AND HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF NECESSARY.

MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS.  THIS WILL MEAN A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014

...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER
INTO MID WEEK...

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COULD BE ANOTHER MCS ROLLING ACROSS THE
FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
BACK ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN MTS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
LOOKS TO SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING UVV AHEAD
OF PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM. WITH AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...COULD POSSIBLY SEE TRAINING STORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND ESPECIALLY THE PIKES PEAK REGION WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
BURN SCARS. SHOULD SEE STORMS MOVING OUT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND PASSING TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE H7 TEMPS COOLING TO BETWEEN 4C AND 10C ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE PASSING TROUGH...LEADING TO A COOL DAY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS
SOME 5-15F BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...A DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN SETS UP WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE STATE MONDAY AND FLATTENS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY BY MORE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...PASSING NORTHERN TIER SYSTEM SENDS A BACKDOOR
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE
OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. WINDOW OF GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM
20Z TO 01Z FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS. THREAT WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND MAY CLEAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO
BY 06Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AREAS OF STRATUS
WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY VFR CIGS
EXPECTED FOR THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS. THEY COULD BRIEFLY DROP
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR KPUB TOWARDS MORNING. LOWER CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST. SATURDAY WILL SEE CLOUDS PERSIST LONGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

KALS WILL REMAIN VFR.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT THESE ARE LESS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL.
-KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1102 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-071715-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1102 AM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP AROUND NOON OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS
TO NEAR 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY AS STORMS DEVELOP. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF ONE OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES OVER THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  AS THEY MOVE
EAST...THEY WILL STRENGTHEN WITH SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LIKELY...WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST INTO KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEW MEXICO BORDERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE EXACT LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON
WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES RESIDE...WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND INCREASING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AREAS FARTHER
WEST WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY BUT STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

PRIMARY STORM THREATS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL INCLUDE HEAVY
RAIN...FLOODING...LARGE HAIL AND LIGHTNING. THE FLOOD THREAT WILL
BE GREATEST ON AREA BURN SCARS. HOWEVER...AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS
SWOLLEN BY RECENT SNOWMELT WILL ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE.

AFTER A DRYING TREND MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A NEW WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

31/23

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1021 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014

COZ085-086-070515-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET CO-
1021 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CROWLEY...
NORTHEASTERN PUEBLO AND SOUTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM
MDT...

AT 1018 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR PINON...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF
PUEBLO...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...PINON AND OPEN COUNTRY OF NORTHERN
PUEBLO AND SOUTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTIES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3876 10405 3826 10406 3835 10473 3857 10474
TIME...MOT...LOC 0418Z 265DEG 26KT 3845 10464

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