Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1107 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DEWEESE RESERVOIR AND GRAPE CREEK
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE CUSTER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS
THAT THE RESERVOIR WILL REMAIN NEAR CAPACITY THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND HIGH FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG GRAPE CREEK BELOW THE
RESERVOIR...BUT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
DAM HAS LESSENED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

CURRENTLY...NO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG CELLS HAVE MOVED
EWD INTO KS...BUT PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS. STRATUS PATCH ACROSS EL PASO HAS
EXPANDED SLIGHTLY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX OUT QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING
AS W-SW FLOW INCREASES AND AREA DRIES OUT FROM THE WEST. DRYLINE
SHOULD RETREAT TO JUST INSIDE THE CO-KS STATE LINE BY MID
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEAR E OF THE LINE...SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUICKLY SVR...HOWEVER...THEY
ALSO WILL BE MOVING EWD INTO KS...SO THREAT FOR OUR CWA LOOKS
MINIMAL. HRRR INITIATES STORMS RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER AT 20-21Z.

REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND BREEZY TODAY. TEMPS WILL RISE
INTO THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS. ALONG
WITH RH OF NR 10 PERCENT AND WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH...COULD SEE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
AREAS ALONG AND JUST E OF I-25. HOWEVER...DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
THE FUEL STATUS FOR MOST OF THE AFFECTED AREA DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE COURSE OF
NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

WILL SEE ANOTHER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT...BUT
MOSTLY OVER NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...EASTERN EL
PASO...KIOWA...AND PROWERS COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...WITH CONTINUED
DRYING ALOFT...WILL SEE RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE
MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH SOME SPOTS FALLING INTO THE 30S BY MON
MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

FLOW WILL BE WEAKLY UPSLOPE OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY
MON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH HEIGHTS
AND MID LEVEL TEMPS RISING FAIRLY QUICKLY MON AFTERNOON...DOUBTFUL
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW
POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE KS BORDER MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...AHEAD
OF THE REDEVELOPING LEE TROUGH...AS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY COMBINE TO GENERATE AN
ISOLATED TSRA. MAX TEMPS MON SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...BUT LITTLE CHANGED WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS. ON TUE...PORTION OF THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH STRONG W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS COLORADO. MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE KS BORDER BY
AFTERNOON...AND WITH FAIRLY DEEP MIXING MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
THEIR WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR AS 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE 18-20C RANGE. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS/GREEN-UP WILL BE
THE ULTIMATE FACTOR IN ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WED BEHIND NORTHERN
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH...THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE RATHER SLOW
TO INCREASE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS SURFACE WINDS ARE INITIALLY NW.
BY WED EVENING...WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE E-NE...PUSHING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE MTS. LOW CHANCE OF A TSRA WED
EVENING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WED EVENING AS MOISTURE
ARRIVES...THOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY STAY JUST TO THE
NORTH OVER NERN CO. COOLER TEMPS AREA-WIDE WED AS 700 THERMAL
RIDGE IS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE STATE. STILL APPEARS AN UPTURN IN
CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THU
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND UPPER ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CURRENT FORECAST HAS COOLER TEMPS AND
ISOLATED POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THU-SAT WHICH
LOOKS OK FOR NOW...THOUGH SUSPECT POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED AS
THE SWITCH TO A WETTER PATTERN...AT LEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...COMES INTO FOCUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

IN ADDITION TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30
KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES...ANTICIPATE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED AT
THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1103 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-021715-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1103 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD GO QUICKLY
SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
\MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
200 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

COZ098-012045-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY CO-
200 PM MDT SUN JUN 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PROWERS COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM MDT...

AT 159 PM MDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED 14 MILES SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST OF COOLIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

STAY ALERT.  THIS STORM COULD TURN SEVERE.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL
PROWERS COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3785 10213 3787 10213 3789 10210 3792 10205
      3785 10204 3774 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 272DEG 11KT 3785 10209

LW