Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1129 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBS DATA AS WELL AS SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS. DRY SLOT IS IN FULL EFFECT ACROSS THE E
PLAINS...BUT AS OF 945 AM CU ARE POPPING OVER THE E MTS AND FEEL
THAT MIDDAY MT CONVECTION IS ON TRACK. MOORE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW UPR LOW CENTER OVR SWRN CO.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE LOW TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OR EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.  BY 12Z MON THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
THE UPR LOW CENTER OVR NE OR NORTH CENTRAL NM.

SHOULD BE DRY THRU THE MORNING HOURS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...WHILE
SOME LIGHT PCPN CONTINUES ALONG THE CONTDVD. BY LATE MORNING WL
PROBABLY SEE SOME PCPN DEVELOPING ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND MAYBE IN
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SHOWERS/TSTMS
SHOULD SPREAD TO OR DEVELOP OVR SOME OF THE SERN PLAINS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE DRIER
THAN YESTERDAY AND THE 4KM NSSL WRF AND RAP13 SHOW VERY LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS TODAY...AND GENERALLY SCT OR
HIGHER POPS OVR THE HYR TRRN. THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING MORE
WIDESPREAD PCPN.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER MTN AREAS TODAY. MOST STORMS TODAY WL AGAIN
BE SLOW MOVING AS THE STEERING FLOW IS FAIRLY LIGHT.  THE FLOW OVR
THE FAR SERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE FASTER.

WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVR THE BURN SCARS...THERE COULD AGAIN BE
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

BY LATE TONIGHT THE LATEST NAM HAS MOST PCPN ENDING...ALTHOUGH SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY CONTINUE OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO THE NAM. THE GFS KEEPS CHANCES FOR PCPN OVR MUCH OF THE
AREA THRU THE NIGHT.  WL COMPROMISE AND KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS MOST
AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER LOW PROGGED AROUND THE CENTRAL COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO BORDER EARLY MONDAY MORNING SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME DRYING IN THE
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER....THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE MAIN STORM
THREAT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND LOOKS TO BE IN THE
OFFING AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY GIVES
WAY TO  SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM
DIGGING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE TYPICAL
LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER PATTERN OF MORNING SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES TO WARMING BACK TO
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES
WITHIN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE PAC NORTHWEST
SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTING OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS OF
11 AM...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THEFORECAST N-NW STORM TRACK. CONVECTION WILL BE
NEAR ENOUGH TO THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TO
WARRANT VCTS THROUGH 02Z...WITH VCSH LASTING A COUPLE HOURS BEYOND
THAT. STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CG LTG AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN. AFTERWARDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1104 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-261300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1104 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS...AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. MANY OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING
AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. IF HEAVY RAIN MOVES OVER OR DEVELOPS
ON AREA BURN SCARS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. OTHER
THUNDERSTORM THREATS TODAY WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES.

OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN STORM
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THERE
WILL REMAIN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN
STORM THREATS BEING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS AROUND
45 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.

27/06

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

COZ081-082-085-251745-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT CO-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT CO-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN 7500 AND
11000 FT CO-
1127 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TELLER AND NORTHWESTERN
EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM MDT...

AT 1123 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER CHIPITA PARK...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLORADO
SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM IS PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WALDO CANYON BURN
SCAR.  RADAR ESTIMATES THIS STORM IS PRODUCING UP TO 0.4 INCHES OF
RAIN.  IF THIS STORM MOVES FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...RAIN CAN
FALL OVER THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE REGION...AND OTHER STORMS COULD
APPROACH OR PASS OVER THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTERN COLORADO SPRINGS...WOODLAND PARK...MANITOU SPRINGS...GREEN
MOUNTAIN FALLS...PIKES PEAK...CHIPITA PARK...CASCADE...
CASCADE-CHIPITA PARK...DIVIDE AND CRYSTOLA.

LAT...LON 3888 10487 3879 10506 3905 10534 3912 10533
      3913 10503
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 146DEG 29KT 3890 10503

PGW

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1222 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

COZ081-084-251845-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT
CO-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN 7500 AND
11000 FT CO-
1222 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TELLER AND NORTHWESTERN
EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM MDT...

AT 1221 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MONUMENT...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF COLORADO
SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MONUMENT AROUND 1225 PM MDT.
  PALMER LAKE AROUND 1240 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 10484 3900 10500 3913 10507 3913 10484
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 163DEG 10KT 3907 10493

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1247 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

COZ079-083-086-251915-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY CO-
PUEBLO VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FEET CO-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT CO-
1247 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1246 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTH OF GREENHORN MOUNTAIN...OR 22
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PUEBLO...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL PUEBLO
AND NORTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...BEULAH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10489 3807 10505 3825 10506 3822 10480
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 202DEG 10KT 3810 10497

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1251 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 PM     HAIL             1 ESE PALMER LAKE       39.11N 104.90W
05/25/2014  E0.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL ABOUT 2 INCHES IN DEPTH.

&&

STARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
206 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

COZ081-252030-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN 7500 AND
11000 FT CO-
206 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TELLER COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MDT...

AT 206 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER DIVIDE...OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLORADO
SPRINGS. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOODLAND PARK AND DIVIDE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3889 10512 3900 10530 3912 10520 3900 10504
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 220DEG 3KT 3896 10516

MOORE