Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
305 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014

...HEAVY RAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING...

UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL JET MAX FORECAST ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND
THE LOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...THOUGH DEW
POINTS HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO THE 30 ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED VERSUS 24 HRS
AGO...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.
MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...MAINLY EAST OF I-25. WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR (30 KTS) HAS LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH STRONG UPWARD
MOTION PROVIDED BY UPPER WAVE LIFTING OUT OF NM...STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND HIGH WINDS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE
TO THE KS BORDER. WITH RATHER LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NERN NM
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS SHOULD
SEE SEVERAL WAVES OF HEAVY...BUT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. GIVEN
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...SUSPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS NEAR
THE KS BORDER...THOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND CONSIDERABLY
WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

UPPER LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO AZ FRIDAY...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND
MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
TOUGH TO FIND MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING THE
DAY...AND WITH SHEAR VALUES EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY...SUSPECT SEVERE
TSRA THREAT IS RATHER LIMITED. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS...AS WEAK DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS. HAVE A BROADBRUSH OF SCATTERED POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE
DAY...AND WILL NEED TO WATCH BURN SCARS FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD
THREAT ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPS MANY AREAS...AND NUDGED CURRENT GRIDDED MAX TEMP
DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MODELS SLOWING DOWN THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW UNTIL LATER
MONDAY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO...AND
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE
WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE A ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...PRIMARILY BANKED ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN IN AND NEAR THE WALDO CANYON
BURN SCAR THROUGH THE PERIOD IN CASE A HEAVIER SHOWER MOVES OVER
THE SCAR LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. THE THREAT WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD OVER THE WALDO AND WE WILL MONITOR IT
CLOSELY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE DEVELOPING A DRY SLOT OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY. IF THE DRY SLOT DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...IT
COULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THAN WHAT IS IN THE
FORECAST. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY WITH WRAP AROUND EASTERLY
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE SLOWER EJECTION
SPEED THE MODELS HAVE AT THIS TIME.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND
SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...HOWEVER ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS COULD
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. WEAK
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WEAK STEERING FLOWS SHOULD KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO WARM THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THOUGH STORMS HAVE STAYED AWAY FROM TAF SITES SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL A THREAT OF A TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS INTO THE
EVENING...SO WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION IN THE TAFS UNTIL 01Z.  MAIN
THREATS WILL BE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND SOME SMALL HAIL. CIGS WITH TSRA WILL BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR
RANGE UNDER SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL
LINGER OVER MOST OF THE AREA...AND WILL HAVE A MENTION OF AT LEAST
VCSH EARLY FRI MORNING AT KPUB AND KCOS. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRATUS WILL SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR
RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS FRIDAY MORNING FOR KCOS AND KPUB. LITTLE
CHANGE FOR FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1131 AM MDT THU MAY 22 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-231745-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1131 AM MDT THU MAY 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AT MID-DAY...AND STORMS WILL SPREAD ON TO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL UNDER 1
INCH IN DIAMETER...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25...WITH WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER. THE AREA WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TO THE EAST OF A
LINE FROM CALHAN TO LA JUNTA TO KIM. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE HIT OR MISS OVER THE BURN
SCARS TODAY...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY FOR BURN SCARS
LOCATED IN OR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THESE INCLUDE THE EAST
PEAK...ROYAL GORGE...WALDO AND THE BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS. THE
WINDOW OF GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM.

THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO
SEE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  THESE WILL BE MORE
LIKELY TO PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

ALSO...HAZARDOUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO NOT REACH THE STRONG TO
SEVERE CATEGORY FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1 PM AND 8 PM ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

10/88

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1248 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014

COZ074-087-088-221900-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT CO-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT CO-
1248 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HUERFANO COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM MDT...

AT 1247 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BONCARBO...OR 18 MILES WEST OF TRINIDAD...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AGUILAR...BONCARBO AND GULNARE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3711 10480 3724 10497 3756 10469 3738 10443
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 221DEG 39KT 3724 10482

PGW

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
305 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014

COZ088-093-094-222130-
LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY CO-EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
305 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL OTERO COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

AT 304 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THATCHER...OR 41 MILES EAST
OF TRINIDAD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN LAS
ANIMAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL OTERO COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3726 10380 3747 10407 3775 10369 3746 10341
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 230DEG 36KT 3738 10380

PGW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
342 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014

COZ093-094-097-099-222215-
LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY CO-EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY CO-
SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY CO-
LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY CO-
342 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS...
SOUTHEASTERN OTERO...NORTHWESTERN BACA AND SOUTH CENTRAL BENT
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

AT 342 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES SOUTH OF HIGBEE...OR 31 MILES SOUTH OF
NORTH LA JUNTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL LAS
ANIMAS...SOUTHEASTERN OTERO...NORTHWESTERN BACA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
BENT COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3742 10337 3756 10351 3781 10320 3760 10299
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 231DEG 21KT 3754 10337

PGW