Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Pueblo, CO

349 
WWUS55 KPUB 212052
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
252 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

COC009-071-212115-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-140721T2115Z/
LAS ANIMAS CO-BACA CO-
252 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BACA COUNTIES...

AT 251 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 17 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF KIM...OR 31 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BACA COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3702 10301 3711 10321 3732 10312 3718 10283
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 280DEG 5KT 3712 10306 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

KT

536 
WWUS55 KPUB 212106
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
306 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

COC009-071-212115-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-140721T2115Z/
LAS ANIMAS CO-BACA CO-
306 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BACA COUNTIES...

AT 306 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 17 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF KIM...OR 32 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD...AND IS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BACA COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3702 10301 3711 10321 3732 10312 3718 10283
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 261DEG 3KT 3712 10308 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1139 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

CURRENTLY...

WAT VAP IMGY SHOWS A MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE REGION. THIS PLUME IS
ORIGINATING FORM CONVECTION IN MEXICO/E AZ AND NM. OVER THE CWA...A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PLUME. SFC OBS AT 2 AM WERE INDICATING 60 DWPTS OVER THE FAR E
PLAINS....WITH 50S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN THE MTNS...THE
MOISTURE DECREASES FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH 40S AND 50S OVER THE E
MTNS/SAN LUIS VALLEY AND 30S IN FAR SW CO.

TODAY...

IT MAY BE A BIT BUSIER THAN SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES. THE NAM HAS THE
MOST QPF AND IT MAY BE RIGHT GIVEN THE CURRENT WAT VAP IMGY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HIGHER PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS BACA COUNTY. FOR THIS REASON HAVE HIGHEST SCTD POPS OVER THIS
REGION. SCTD POPS ARE ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...GENERALLY N OF US-50...POPS WILL BE MORE
ISOLD.

IT WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION I DONT KNOW IF IT WILL BE AS WARM AS GUIDANCE.
HOTTEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN LAMAR WHERE L100S ARE LIKELY.

GIVEN THE LLVL MSTR (CAPES ~1000)...AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS...COULD SEE A MARGINALLY SVR STORM OVER THE FAR E
PLAINS...MAINLY EAST OF EADS-LAS ANIMAS-KIM LINE.

TONIGHT...

BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER FAR SE
CO...BUT SHOULD END BY MID EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SE CO LATER TONIGHT...BUT MOST OTHER REGIONS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. \/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY
WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. GFS MAY BE A BIT FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS UPPER
TROF MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. MODELS DO SHOW
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND
COULD SEE A BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY
WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

RIDGE AXIS IS FLATTENED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TROF MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH BETTER CLOUD COVER.

RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ON THE PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND.
STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY A VCTS AT KCOS AND KALS
AFTER 21Z...THOUGH THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LOW. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOWEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KPUB SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS TO THE EAST OF KLHX. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO
AROUND 50 KTS AND HAIL TO NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. A FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS TUES MORNING BRINGING A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH
AT 10-15 KTS AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB AROUND 15-16Z. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...KT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-221745-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1142 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM EADS...TO LAS
ANIMAS...TO KIM. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL.

MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL MEAN A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
AROUND AN INCH IN DIAMETER ON THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS.

31/23