Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Pueblo, CO

779 
WWUS55 KPUB 152012
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
212 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

COC027-043-109-152022-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0129.000000T0000Z-140715T2045Z/
CUSTER CO-SAGUACHE CO-FREMONT CO-
212 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CUSTER...EAST CENTRAL
SAGUACHE AND SOUTH CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3825 10567 3832 10544 3800 10523 3796 10559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 349DEG 22KT 3808 10551 

$$

STARK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1157 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

AREA OF RATHER STRONG CONVECTION ROLLING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS OF 0930Z...WHILE ISOLATED TSRA LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AS WELL. WILL LEAVE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE MORNING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LEFTOVER STORMS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH
JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER NOTED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. UPPER FORCING REMAINS RATHER WEAK DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS AS MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH...THOUGH
MOST MODELS STILL DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MIGRATE IT EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS TOWARD 00Z.
NSSL 4KM WRF IN PARTICULAR IS TARGETING THE PIKES PEAK REGION FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL LATER TODAY...AND WITH AMOUNT OF RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED OVER THESE AREAS YESTERDAY...WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TELLER/EL PASO COUNTIES BEGINNING AT 18Z.
HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...THOUGH STORMS MAY BE
FAIRLY SCATTERED...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY EXPANSION OF THE WATCH
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST AT THIS POINT. CERTAINLY A SEVERE THREAT
OVER THE PLAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR AGAIN TODAY...AS 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY
I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION...THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN LINGER PAST SUNSET.

TONIGHT...UPPER FORCING INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN
ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT ONCE AGAIN. SUSPECT WE'LL SEE SOME SORT OF MCS DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AFTER SUNSET...AND THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z-09Z. MAY NEED A FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN
PLAINS ZONES IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS...THOUGH WILL LET DAY SHIFT
EVALUATE 12Z DATA BEFORE ANY ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...MORE SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...

FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH WY WED MORNING...THEN
CROSS IN A NW TRAJECTORY THROUGH ERN CO WED AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT EAST
OF OUR AREA...BUT EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH THE FRONT. GFS
AND EC SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING WIDESPREAD PRECIP
OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE IN AT LEAST
THE MID 50S OVR THE PLAINS. THIS WILL YIELD CAPE AROUND 1500-2000
J/KG AND THE STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL
LEND BULK SHEARS AROUND 40 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION
INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SUPERCELLS. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...WED COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A STRONGER ROUND OF
STORMS THAN TODAY'S SVR COVERAGE. FLOOD POTENTIAL MIGHT BE MITIGATED
SOMEWHAT BY STORM MOVEMENT...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND PREVIOUS
QPF...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY TO WATCH FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING AS
WELL.

THE FRONT WILL USHER IN EVEN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY...WHEN TEMPS
COULD STRUGGLE TO HIT 80S DEGREES OVR THE PLAINS DEPENDING ON THE
PERSISTENCE OF MORNING CLOUD COVER. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE REDUCED
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THURSDAY WITH THE MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE MT AREAS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MONSOONAL FLOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF DIURNAL BASED STORMS GOING DURING THIS TIME...BUT BY SUNDAY WE
SHOULD START TO DRY OUT...AND BY MONDAY WE MAY SEE FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WILL MODERATE WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING...AND SHOULD GET BACK TO AVERAGE OR HIGHER BY THE WEEKEND.
LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER CO THROUGH
NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD CUT BACK A BIT ON THE HIGH LEVEL OF
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE PAST WEEK. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

PATCHY IFR STRATUS AROUND KCOS WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND 19Z.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER
18Z...WITH STORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS AFTER 20Z. KCOS AND AND
KPUB MAY SEE A SECOND ROUND OF TSRA 03Z- 06Z AS UPPER WAVE DROPS
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ081-082-084-085.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1129 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-161730-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1129 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE AIR TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. ANY STORMS WHICH FORM TODAY WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND SOME PEA SIZED HAIL.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...WITH HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL
SIZE...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH AT TIMES AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. ALL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST FOR THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS WILL
BECOME WEAKER AND LESS WIDESPREAD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
926 AM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     FLOOD            5 SSE LAS ANIMAS        38.00N 103.20W
07/15/2014                   BENT               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGHWAY 101 AT COUNTY RD BB FLOODED. ONE HOUSE ALSO
            FLOODED.

&&

PJC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
111 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

COZ074-088-151945-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT CO-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT CO-
111 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 111 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF SEGUNDO...OR 22 MILES WEST OF
TRINIDAD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3710 10502 3711 10502 3716 10485 3700 10471
      3699 10495
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 319DEG 18KT 3709 10490

PJC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
138 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

COZ072-077>079-152015-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT CO-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000FT CO-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT CO-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT CO-
138 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CUSTER AND SOUTH
CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

AT 137 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTH OF TEXAS CREEK...OR 49 MILES WEST
OF PUEBLO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...OAK CREEK...HORN
CREEK...SOUTH LAKE CREEK...ALVARADO CREEK...BRUSH HOLLOW CREEK...
BRUSH CREEK...ANTELOPE CREEK...SANDY CREEK...SOUTH NEWLIN CREEK...
MIDDLE TAYLOR CREEK...SPRING CREEK...NORTH COLONY CREEK...TEXAS
CREEK...NORTH HARDSCRABBLE CREEK...SOUTH TAYLOR CREEK...GRAPE
CREEK...VENABLE CREEK...GREENLEAF CREEK...TAYLOR CREEK...STANTON
CREEK...COPPER GULCH...SWIFT CREEK...NORTH BRUSH CREEK...SOUTH BRUSH
CREEK...GOAT CREEK AND ARKANSAS RIVER.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 10566 3844 10552 3821 10521 3802 10546
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 316DEG 20KT 3828 10552

STARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
147 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

COZ060>063-065-069-072-073-076-077-152015-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT CO-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT CO-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT CO-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT CO-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000FT CO-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT CO-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY  ABOVE 8500FT CO-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT CO-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT CO-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT CO-
147 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHAFFEE...NORTH
CENTRAL SAGUACHE AND WEST CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM
MDT...

AT 146 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PONCHA SPRINGS...OR 45 MILES EAST OF
GUNNISON...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SALIDA...PONCHA SPRINGS...BONANZA...SWISSVALE AND PONCHA PASS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3861 10622 3865 10600 3842 10583 3828 10616
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 344DEG 23KT 3856 10609

STARK