Flash Flood Watch 8, NWS Pueblo, CO

602 
WGUS65 KPUB 270216
FFAPUB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
816 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING ON SUNDAY...

.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WITHIN THE DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN
FRONT RANGE AND NEAR AREA BURN SCARS.

COZ072>089-093-094-099-271030-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0008.140727T1500Z-140728T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LA VETA PASS...PONCHA PASS...
BLANCA PEAK...CUCHARA...STONEWALL...WESTON...SPANISH PEAKS...
COALDALE...COTOPAXI...HILLSIDE...HOWARD...SWISSVALE...
TEXAS CREEK...SILVER CLIFF...WESTCLIFFE...RYE...GREENHORN MTN...
WOODLAND PARK...PIKES PEAK...CANON CITY...PENROSE...
BLACK FOREST...AIR FORCE ACADEMY...COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO...
WALSENBURG...TRINIDAD...ORDWAY...OLNEY SPRINGS...LA JUNTA...
ROCKY FORD...BRANSON...KIM...SPRINGFIELD...WALSH
816 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND 
  SOUTHEAST COLORADO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST 
  CENTRAL COLORADO...EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY AND THE 
  RAMPART RANGE. IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...FREMONT COUNTY... 
  NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN SANGRE DE 
  CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY AND WET MOUNTAINS. IN 
  SOUTHEAST COLORADO...BACA COUNTY...CROWLEY COUNTY...EASTERN 
  LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...HUERFANO COUNTY...OTERO COUNTY...PUEBLO 
  COUNTY AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. 

* FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* A COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO BRING THE
  THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

* BURN SCARS AND STEEPER TERRAIN WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
  FLASH FLOODING. THOSE IN AND AROUND THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR
  THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CLOSELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

556 
WGUS65 KPUB 271006
FFAPUB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
406 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJOINING PLAINS...

MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...COMBINED WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS IN AND NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL SEE AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN AND NEAR THE BURN SCARS SUCH AS WALDO
CANYON...ROYAL GORGE...AND EAST PEAK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE EVENING MAINTAINING THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

COZ097-271815-
/O.EXB.KPUB.FF.A.0008.140727T1700Z-140728T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LAS ANIMAS
406 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
   INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREA...BENT COUNTY. 

* FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALOFT TO
  BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TO
  SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

* AREAS ON THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHICH RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY
  WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE MONITOR THE
  LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CLOSELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

COZ072>075-079-080-087-088-094-099-271815-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FF.A.0008.140727T1700Z-140728T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LA VETA PASS...PONCHA PASS...
BLANCA PEAK...CUCHARA...STONEWALL...WESTON...SPANISH PEAKS...
RYE...GREENHORN MTN...WALSENBURG...TRINIDAD...BRANSON...KIM...
SPRINGFIELD...WALSH
406 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO... 
  NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN SANGRE DE 
  CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND WET MOUNTAINS. IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO... 
  BACA COUNTY...EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...HUERFANO COUNTY AND 
  WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. 

* FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING

* MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO
  BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TO
  SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

* BURN SCARS AND STEEPER TERRAIN WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
  FLASH FLOODING. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THAT
  RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT WILL ALSO BE PRONE TO FLASH
  FLOODING. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
  CLOSELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

COZ076>078-081>086-089-093-271815-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FF.A.0008.140727T1700Z-140728T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COALDALE...COTOPAXI...HILLSIDE...
HOWARD...SWISSVALE...TEXAS CREEK...SILVER CLIFF...WESTCLIFFE...
WOODLAND PARK...PIKES PEAK...CANON CITY...PENROSE...
BLACK FOREST...AIR FORCE ACADEMY...COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO...
ORDWAY...OLNEY SPRINGS...LA JUNTA...ROCKY FORD
406 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND 
  SOUTHEAST COLORADO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST 
  CENTRAL COLORADO...EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY AND THE 
  RAMPART RANGE. IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...FREMONT COUNTY AND 
  WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY. IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...CROWLEY COUNTY... 
  OTERO COUNTY AND PUEBLO COUNTY. 

* FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING

* MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH MONSOONAL
  MOISTURE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
  FLOODING TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

* BURN SCARS AND STEEPER TERRAIN WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE 
  TO FLASH FLOODING. THOSE IN AND AROUND THESE AREAS SHOULD 
  MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CLOSELY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

775 
WGUS65 KPUB 271815
FFAPUB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1215 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJOINING PLAINS...

MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...COMBINED WITH MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS IN AND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL SEE AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN AND NEAR THE BURN SCARS SUCH AS WALDO
CANYON...ROYAL GORGE...AND EAST PEAK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE EVENING MAINTAINING THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

COZ072>075-079-080-087-088-094-099-280215-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-140728T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LA VETA PASS...PONCHA PASS...
BLANCA PEAK...CUCHARA...STONEWALL...WESTON...SPANISH PEAKS...
RYE...GREENHORN MTN...WALSENBURG...TRINIDAD...BRANSON...KIM...
SPRINGFIELD...WALSH
1215 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO... 
  NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN SANGRE DE 
  CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND WET MOUNTAINS. IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO... 
  BACA COUNTY...EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...HUERFANO COUNTY AND 
  WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. 

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT

* MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO 
  BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TO 
  SOUTHEAST COLORADO. 

* BURN SCARS AND STEEPER TERRAIN WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE 
  TO FLASH FLOODING. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THAT 
  RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT WILL ALSO BE PRONE TO FLASH 
  FLOODING. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS 
  CLOSELY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

COZ076>078-081>086-089-093-097-280215-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-140728T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COALDALE...COTOPAXI...HILLSIDE...
HOWARD...SWISSVALE...TEXAS CREEK...SILVER CLIFF...WESTCLIFFE...
WOODLAND PARK...PIKES PEAK...CANON CITY...PENROSE...
BLACK FOREST...AIR FORCE ACADEMY...COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO...
ORDWAY...OLNEY SPRINGS...LA JUNTA...ROCKY FORD...LAS ANIMAS
1215 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND 
  SOUTHEAST COLORADO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST 
  CENTRAL COLORADO...EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY AND THE 
  RAMPART RANGE. IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...FREMONT COUNTY AND 
  WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY. IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...BENT COUNTY... 
  CROWLEY COUNTY...OTERO COUNTY AND PUEBLO COUNTY. 

* UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING

* MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH MONSOONAL 
  MOISTURE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH 
  FLOODING TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. 

* BURN SCARS AND STEEPER TERRAIN WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE 
  TO FLASH FLOODING. THOSE IN AND AROUND THESE AREAS SHOULD 
  MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CLOSELY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

275 
WGUS65 KPUB 280129
FFAPUB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJOINING PLAINS...

MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...COMBINED WITH MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS IN AND NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL SEE AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN AND NEAR THE BURN SCARS SUCH AS WALDO
CANYON...ROYAL GORGE...AND EAST PEAK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE EVENING MAINTAINING THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

COZ076>078-081>086-089-093-097-280600-
/O.EXT.KPUB.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-140728T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COALDALE...COTOPAXI...HILLSIDE...
HOWARD...SWISSVALE...TEXAS CREEK...SILVER CLIFF...WESTCLIFFE...
WOODLAND PARK...PIKES PEAK...CANON CITY...PENROSE...
BLACK FOREST...AIR FORCE ACADEMY...COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO...
ORDWAY...OLNEY SPRINGS...LA JUNTA...ROCKY FORD...LAS ANIMAS
729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND 
  SOUTHEAST COLORADO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST 
  CENTRAL COLORADO...EL PASO COUNTY AND TELLER COUNTY AND THE 
  RAMPART RANGE. IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...FREMONT COUNTY AND 
  WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY. IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...BENT COUNTY... 
  CROWLEY COUNTY...OTERO COUNTY AND PUEBLO COUNTY. 

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT

* MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH MONSOONAL 
  MOISTURE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH 
  FLOODING TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. 

* BURN SCARS AND STEEPER TERRAIN WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE 
  TO FLASH FLOODING. THOSE IN AND AROUND THESE AREAS SHOULD 
  MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CLOSELY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

COZ072>075-079-080-087-088-094-099-280600-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-140728T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LA VETA PASS...PONCHA PASS...
BLANCA PEAK...CUCHARA...STONEWALL...WESTON...SPANISH PEAKS...
RYE...GREENHORN MTN...WALSENBURG...TRINIDAD...BRANSON...KIM...
SPRINGFIELD...WALSH
729 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO... 
  NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN SANGRE DE 
  CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND WET MOUNTAINS. IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO... 
  BACA COUNTY...EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...HUERFANO COUNTY AND 
  WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. 

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT

* MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO 
  BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TO 
  SOUTHEAST COLORADO. 

* BURN SCARS AND STEEPER TERRAIN WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE 
  TO FLASH FLOODING. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THAT 
  RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT WILL ALSO BE PRONE TO FLASH 
  FLOODING. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS 
  CLOSELY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

833 
WGUS65 KPUB 280549
FFAPUB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1149 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOODING THREAT DIMINISHING...

.LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH FLASH FLOODING NO LONGER
ANTICIPATED.

COZ072>089-093-094-097-099-280700-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-140728T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LA VETA PASS...PONCHA PASS...
BLANCA PEAK...CUCHARA...STONEWALL...WESTON...SPANISH PEAKS...
COALDALE...COTOPAXI...HILLSIDE...HOWARD...SWISSVALE...
TEXAS CREEK...SILVER CLIFF...WESTCLIFFE...RYE...GREENHORN MTN...
WOODLAND PARK...PIKES PEAK...CANON CITY...PENROSE...
BLACK FOREST...AIR FORCE ACADEMY...COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO...
WALSENBURG...TRINIDAD...ORDWAY...OLNEY SPRINGS...LA JUNTA...
ROCKY FORD...BRANSON...KIM...LAS ANIMAS...SPRINGFIELD...WALSH
1149 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL EXPIRE AT
MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT. 

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH FLASH FLOODING NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1210 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPDATED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA. COMBINATION OF FACTORS ALL POINT TO HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING: 1) HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS...NR 60 DEGREES OVER
THE PLAINS. 2) FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS
MOISTURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND PROVIDED EXTRA LIFT. 3) DEEP
MOISTURE...MONSOON PLUME IN PLACE WITH PRECIP H2O IN THE 1.4-1.6
INCH RANGE. HISTORICALLY...THESE ARE STRONG INDICATORS FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE ONE NEGATIVE...AND IT IS POTENTIALLY
A GAME CHANGER...IS THAT THE FRONT WILL COME IN EARLY...BEFORE
ANY WIDESPREAD DIURNAL HEATING CAN OCCUR. THIS WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY REDUCE RAINFALL RATES TO A RANGE WHERE
FLOODING BECOMES LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...ENOUGH INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS APPROPRIATE. WILL
LEAVE OUT THE BORDER COUNTIES OF KIOWA...BENT AND PROWERS WHERE
FORCING WILL NOT BE AS GREAT...HOWEVER...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF SE CO INCLUDING THE WRN PORTIONS/MTS. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 855 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

UPDATED SKY AND POPS BASED ON OBS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED SHORT TERM SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE...

PATTERN TODAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.  UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH COLORADO UNDER THE
MONSOON MOISTURE FEED ROTATING AROUND THE TOP SIDE OF THE HIGH.
WATER VAPOR PICTURES THIS MORNING SHOW TEMPORARY DRYING OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO...BUT THIS LIKELY TO CHANGE AS MORE MONSOON
MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SIMILAR IN COVERAGE TO WHAT
OCCURRED YESTERDAY.  HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SEND UP INITIAL
CONVECTION JUST A BIT LATER THAN YESTERDAY.  THERE ARE 2 AREAS OF
DEVELOPMENT TO WATCH FOR INITIALLY.  FIRST...THERE IS THE MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION STARTING UP AROUND 17Z AND THEN TRANSITIONING ONTO THE
PLAINS AROUND 21Z.  A SECOND AREA TO WATCH IS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...ALONG A BOUNDARY...STARTING AROUND 21Z. WINDS SHEAR IS
STILL NOT LOOKING GREAT SO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW. WITH
PRECIPITABLE VALUES AROUND AN INCH IN MOST AREAS...THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING OVER A BURN
SCAR...URBAN DRAINAGE SYSTEM...OR OTHER FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREA.
LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO BE CONCERNS.

MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THEY EVEN KEEP SOME
ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS.  SO...MAY
NOT BE THE TYPICAL QUIET AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ON MOST NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL SET UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...

ACTIVE PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOKS PROBABLE FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH
TAPS MONSOON MOISTURE AND WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ACROSS OLD
MEXICO...AND FUNNELS THEM UP ACROSS AZ/NM AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CO.
MEANWHILE...SFC FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH MUCH OF THIS
TIME WHICH WILL KEEP PERSISTENT EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PINNED UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS A TYPICAL HEAVY RAIN SET UP FOR
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF CO...WHICH CARRIES THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND EVEN RIVER FLOODING AS THIS MULTI-DAY EVENT UNFOLDS.
AS ALWAYS...SUBTLE FEATURES WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE ON WHERE
THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS. THERE MAY BE SOME DAYS WHERE THE PLAINS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT STABLE AND CAPPED...BUT DIFFICULT TO SAY THIS FAR OUT
WHICH DAYS THESE WILL BE. THE SE MOUNTAINS...AND THE BURN SCARS
LOOK PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THESE AREAS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE REPEATED HEAVY RAIN EVENTS.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS EARLY ON SUNDAY
AS FRONT DRIVES SOUTHWARD AND WAA SETS UP OVERTOP FRONT.  WE COULD
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING ON
SUNDAY...THOUGH 00Z GFS WAS DRIER IN THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S WITH MID 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.  THIS WILL
PUT CAPE VALUES UP AROUND 1000 J/KG OR A LITTLE BETTER IN AND NEAR
THE SE MTS.  WITH SE LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH NW FLOW ALOFT...TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
THE SE MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS WHICH COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
TO NOT ONLY THE BURN SCARS BUT REALLY ANYWHERE IN AND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. APPEARS BEST PARAMETERS FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT
MAY BE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NE
NM...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN CO...SO WILL PLAY HIGHEST
POPS DOWN THIS WAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERALL DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT DAY AS DEEP
LAYER SHEARS ARE LOW. BUT LCLS ARE LOW AND SOUNDINGS STRONGLY
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WARM RAIN PROCESSES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. WE MAY END UP NEEDING SOME FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE
SOUTHEAST MTS THIS DAY IN SPITE OF THE FACT THAT WE'VE HAD A
RELATIVELY DRY WEEK UP UNTIL NOW AND WIDESPREAD ANTECEDENT SOIL
MOISTURE PROBABLY ISN'T TERRIBLY HIGH YET. TIMING OF THE EVENT
MAY ALSO COME INTO PLAY AS NAM12 HAS MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WE'VE REALIZED THE
FULL EXTENT OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. SO
THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS.

ON MONDAY...GFS SHOWS ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOC WITH AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH NM/AZ INTO SOUTHERN
CO.  SO LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER POTENTIAL REPEAT PERFORMANCE.  NAM12 IS A
DRIER ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH SOUNDINGS DON'T APPEAR TOO CAPPED.
NAM DOES GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SUGGESTS MAJORITY OF
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SRN/CEN NM AND CRN TX.  GFS BY CONTRAST SUGGESTS
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES...AND EC KEEPS THIS MORE ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE AND FAR SE CORNER.  TEND TO BELIEVE THE ECMWF FOR NOW AND
HAVE TRENDED POP FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.  ONCE AGAIN...SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOW LCLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

SIGNALS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THAT ANOTHER MCS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD AND 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. GFS ALSO SHOWS A NICE DISTURBANCE
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND DROPPING DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CO TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE COULD BE DEALING WITH A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WELL INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS ON TUESDAY IF ALL
COMES TOGETHER AS GFS SUGGESTS. ECMWF ALSO LATCHES ON TO THIS
SCENARIO.

THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGH DETAILS
BECOME MORE MURKY WITH TIME SO WILL HAVE TO RELY ON BROADER SCALE
PATTERN. PERSISTENT FETCH OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA WITH UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING BEHIND ANOTHER SOUTHWARD SURGE OF
THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.  ECMWF SUGGESTS A LITTLE DRYING FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
HOWEVER GFS SUGGESTS DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S AND BOTH
MODELS KEEP THE MONSOON TAP OVER THE REGION...SO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER/NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THUS THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON AREA BURN SCARS...WILL CONTINUE.
ALL IN ALL...ITS SHAPING UP TO BE AN ACTIVE WEEK. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MAIN AVN CONCERNS WILL BE IMPACT OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
WILL SEE SCT TS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z. TODAY...STORMS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO IMPACT KCOS BUT COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE...AND BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LOW CIGS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH EL PASO COUNTY SOMETIME
AFTER 12Z TUE...AND WILL REACH THE NM BORDER BY 18Z. LOW CIGS WILL
BE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE WIDESPREAD.
KCOS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY MVFR CIGS TUE MORNING.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND/OR TS DURING MUCH OF TUE...THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. HEAVIEST
PRECIP WILL PROBABLY BE LOCATED ALONG AND E OF I-25...OVER THE E
SLOPES OF THE SRN FRONT RANGE...AND ALONG AND N OF THE RATON MESA.
EXTENDED PERIODS OF MVFR ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
COZ072>089-093-094-099.

&&

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
650 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-271300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
650 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS COLORADO.  AS A
RESULT...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY.  STORMS SHOULD START UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AND THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

WIND SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
PRIMARY CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND
GUSTY WINDS.

AREA BURN SCARS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SPREADS OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THIS WILL MEAN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
LOCATIONS WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHERE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL TRANSPORT RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. BURN SCARS WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH MID WEEK.

AS STORM MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...THEY MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE THREAT FOR 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH...ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
THESE MAY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WHICH
MAY BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THIS THREAT LOOKS GREATEST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
POTENTIAL MULTI-DAY RAINFALL EVENT UNFOLDS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PORTIONS OF THE ARKANSAS AND PURGATORIE RIVERS...ALONG WITH THEIR
TRIBUTARY CREEKS AND STREAMS MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLOODING AT
TIMES...THOUGH THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN FALLS.

HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS COMPARED TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS. BURN SCARS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO THIS RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON AREA BURN SCARS.

50/31