Flash Flood Watch 17, NWS Pueblo, CO

076 
WGUS65 KPUB 280951
FFAPUB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
351 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...

.WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ARIZONA WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME CONTINUOUS AND HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND THE WEST FORK COMPLEX BURN
SCARS IN MINERAL COUNTY.

COZ067-068-281800-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0017.000000T0000Z-140929T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH FORK...CREEDE...CUMBRES PASS...
WOLF CREEK PASS
351 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND UPPER RIO GRANDE 
  VALLEY. 

* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

* WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THUNDERSHOWERS OVER ARIZONA WILL TRACK
  ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE WEST FORK
  COMPLEX BURN SCAR AREA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
  RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

* INTENSE AND RAPID RUNOFF RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE 
  POSSIBLE. FAST FLOWING WATER OVER ROADS AND SUDDEN RISES IN 
  WATER LEVELS...MAY CREATE POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING 
  SITUATIONS. DIFFICULTY IN SPOTTING FLASH FLOODS AT NIGHT WILL 
  FURTHER RAISE THE LEVEL OF DANGER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

HODANISH

589 
WGUS65 KPUB 281626
FFAPUB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1026 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...

.SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL WILL BE CONTINUOUS AND MODERATE AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY ALSO BECOME MORE INTENSE WITH SOME AFTERNOON
HEATING. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE BURN SCAR COULD RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND THE WEST FORK COMPLEX BURN
SCARS IN MINERAL COUNTY.

COZ067-068-290000-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0017.000000T0000Z-140929T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH FORK...CREEDE...CUMBRES PASS...
WOLF CREEK PASS
1026 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND UPPER RIO GRANDE 
  VALLEY. 

* UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL TRACK ACROSS
  THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE WEST FORK COMPLEX
  BURN SCAR AREA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
  HOWEVER...WITH AFTERNOON HEATING THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
  BECOME MORE INTENSE...PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WHICH MAY
  QUICKLY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

* INTENSE AND RAPID RUNOFF RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
  POSSIBLE SHOULD A STRONGER CELL IMPACT THE BURN SCARS. FAST
  FLOWING WATER OVER ROADS AND SUDDEN RISES IN WATER LEVELS...MAY
  CREATE POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATIONS. MUD AND ASH
  FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE BURN SCARS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

831 
WGUS65 KPUB 281626 CCA
FFAPUB

FLOOD WATCH...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1026 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...

.SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL WILL BE CONTINUOUS AND MODERATE AT TIMES THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MAY ALSO BECOME MORE INTENSE WITH SOME AFTERNOON
HEATING. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE BURN SCAR COULD RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND THE WEST FORK COMPLEX BURN
SCARS IN MINERAL COUNTY.

COZ067-068-290000-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0017.000000T0000Z-140929T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH FORK...CREEDE...CUMBRES PASS...
WOLF CREEK PASS
1026 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND UPPER RIO GRANDE 
  VALLEY. 

* UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL TRACK ACROSS
  THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE WEST FORK COMPLEX
  BURN SCAR AREA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
  HOWEVER...WITH AFTERNOON HEATING THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
  BECOME MORE INTENSE...PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WHICH MAY
  QUICKLY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

* INTENSE AND RAPID RUNOFF RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
  POSSIBLE SHOULD A STRONGER CELL IMPACT THE BURN SCARS. FAST
  FLOWING WATER OVER ROADS AND SUDDEN RISES IN WATER LEVELS...MAY
  CREATE POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATIONS. MUD AND ASH
  FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE BURN SCARS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

525 
WGUS65 KPUB 282354
FFAPUB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
554 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CANCELLED...

.THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS HAS ENDED...AND ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

COZ067-068-290100-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FF.A.0017.000000T0000Z-140929T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH FORK...CREEDE...CUMBRES PASS...
WOLF CREEK PASS
554 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS
RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
758 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HOISTED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE WEST FORK COMPLEX BURN
SCAR. THIS AREA HAS ALREADY SEEN SOME RAIN THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...LARGE DIFFLUENT REGION OVER ARIZONA WILL APPROACH
THE AREA...KICKING OFF MORE CONTINUOUS AND INTENSE CONVECTION.
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN SAN
JUANS...PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND THE WEST FORK BURN SCAR COMPLEX
IN MINERAL COUNTY.

ADJUSTED POP...SKY COVER...AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE SAN
JUANS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS
WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

REINITIALIZED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SHORT RANGE
SKY COVER GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...WEATHER BECOMING MORE ACTIVE INTO SUNDAY WITH APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM...

UPPER LOW OVER NV AND CEN/SRN CA WILL CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL EASTWARD
MARCH ACROSS NV/WRN UT ON SUNDAY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO. DEW
POINTS TODAY HAVE INCREASED AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVER THOSE OF
YESTERDAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND ALTHOUGH UPPER
FORCING IS STILL WELL BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS UT/AZ...ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE CONTDVD. SOME OF THE CELLS HAVE BEEN ON THE MODERATE TO
STRONG SIDE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THESE.  WEST FORK BURN COMPLEX WILL BE MOST AT RISK FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH THREAT
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY HIT OR MISS AT THIS POINT.  SHORT RANGE HIGH RES
MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THEN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS AS THE NEXT LOBE
OF ENERGY LIFTS UP TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION TOWARDS 12Z SUN.
TYPICALLY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT LACKS THE INSTABILITY FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND LARGER SCALE MODELS KEEP THE HEAVIER QPF
MAXIMA TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA....BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
RADAR AND RAIN GAGES CLOSELY OVERNIGHT ON THE WEST FORK BURN
COMPLEX.

ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING.  DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE PIKE PEAK REGION HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM LOOKS PRETTY
LOW AT THIS POINT.  HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS CIRRUS
SHIELD MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND VALLEYS.

ON SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...A FEW OF WHICH WILL
BE SPILLING ACROSS THE VALLEYS INTO THE SANGRES BY MID TO LATE
MORNING.  BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE IN THE MORNING AS LEAD
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CO BY 18Z.  HOWEVER AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD...ANOTHER ROUND OF
FORCING WILL BE MOVING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE...AND WE MAY BE DEALING
WITH FOG/STRATUS FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING.  WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING SOME...BUT IF WE GET
SUFFICIENT CLOUD BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON...MARGINAL CAPE VALUES AND
DEEP LAYER SHEARS RUNNING AROUND 40-50 KTS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND ADJACENT VALLEYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY INCREASE FOR THE WEST FORK BURN COMPLEX...THOUGH THE
MORNING TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE ENOUGH AT
THIS POINT TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY VIRTUE OF
SOME MINOR COOLING ALOFT. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE PLAINS INCREASE
SOME...WITH GENERALLY 40S AND LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  BUT
WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL WELL BACK TO THE WEST AND UNABLE TO AID IN
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...CAPE VALUES ARE ONLY A MEAGER FEW
HUNDRED J/KG...SO THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...LONG TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE
EJECTION OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND ROCKIES...WITH THE 12Z GFS REMAINING THE FASTEST WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z TUE. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO
BE A TAD SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE GFS AND THE 12Z NAM REMAINS
THE SLOWEST...KEEPING THE TROUGH AXIS BACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO BY 00Z TUE. THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE SYSTEM POSES SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWED TO MOVE INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN MORE STRONGLY BACKED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW WITH THE NAM INDICATING CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR
SE PLAINS LATE MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE AS THE GFS HAS
CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS EARLY MON AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CAPE QUICKLY PUSHING EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE WILL BE AMPLE
SHEAR AND UVV WITH THE BROAD TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE...TO
SUPPORT SUPER CELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG AND DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A LIMITING FACTOR BEING HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN BE GENERATED.

AT ANY RATE...WITH THE BROAD TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE...
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTDVD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE AND SUBSIDENT WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
POSSIBLE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S
ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS...SAVE A FEW POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CONTDVD. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD AGAIN APPROACH AOB FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER BROAD UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE COULD AGAIN BE SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...DRY AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN SLOW BUILDS EAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH KCOS AND KPUB REMAINING DRY.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING.  KALS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF VCTS NEAR THE
TERMINAL...AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS PROBABILITY FROM 23Z TO 01-02Z.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
MVFR STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF KCOS AND KPUB SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH KALS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF VCTS AT THE
TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH KCOS AND KPUB REMAINING DRY.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING.  KALS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF VCTS NEAR THE
TERMINAL...AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS PROBABILITY FROM 23Z TO 01-02Z.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
MVFR STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF KCOS AND KPUB SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH KALS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF VCTS AT THE
TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ067-068.

&&

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
702 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-281300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
702 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES INCLUDING THE RAMPART RANGE AND SANGRE DE
CRISTOS. OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS WILL
BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE WEST FORK BURN SCAR MAY SEE AN
INCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT LATER TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SUNDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS OVER
THE VALLEYS. THE MOST NUMEROUS STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING
OVER THE BURN SCARS IN MINERAL COUNTY COULD OCCUR. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE TREELINE SUNDAY
NIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A COUPLE OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM CALHAN TO LA JUNTA TO KIM. RESIDENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF COLORADO SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT.

27/50

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
328 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

COZ067-068-272200-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT CO-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT CO-
328 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MINERAL AND WESTERN RIO
GRANDE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

AT 328 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM OVER WOLF CREEK PASS...OR 38 MILES NORTH OF
DULCE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO .20 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WEST FORK
BURN SCAR WITH THIS STORM...HOWEVER IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES
FURTHER THEN HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOLF CREEK PASS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3768 10683 3747 10669 3739 10680 3739 10693
      3751 10710
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 141DEG 8KT 3747 10684

KT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
356 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

COZ067-068-272230-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT CO-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT CO-
356 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MINERAL COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM MDT...

AT 356 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF WOLF CREEK PASS...OR 39 MILES
NORTH OF DULCE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO .20 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WEST FORK
BURN SCAR WITH THIS STORM...HOWEVER IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES FURTHER
THEN HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MINERAL COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3755 10679 3744 10695 3751 10708 3768 10690
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 119DEG 6KT 3750 10695

KT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
446 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

COZ067-068-272330-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT CO-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT CO-
446 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MINERAL COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM MDT...

AT 446 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF WOLF CREEK PASS...OR 36 MILES
NORTH OF DULCE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO .20 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WEST FORK
BURN SCAR WITH THIS STORM...HOWEVER IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES
FURTHER THEN HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MINERAL COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3765 10712 3770 10688 3740 10685 3739 10688
      3739 10707 3749 10713
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 165DEG 10KT 3747 10698

MM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
528 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

COZ066>068-280015-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT CO-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT CO-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT CO-
528 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WEST FORK COMPLEX
BURN SCARS IN MINERAL COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

AT 520 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE WOLF CREEK PASS AREA...TRACKING
TO THE NORTH AT 30 MPH ACROSS THE WEST FORK COMPLEX BURN SCARS IN
MINERAL COUNTY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO .20 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WEST FORK
COMPLEX BURN SCARS WITH THESE STORMS.  HOWEVER...IF THESE STORMS
INTENSIFY FURTHER...THEN HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR RUNOFF ISSUES BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE MAJOR FLOOD
PROBLEMS.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST FORK COMPLEX BURN SCARS AND ADJACENT AREAS IN MINERAL COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3779 10714 3772 10671 3756 10672 3741 10680
      3745 10698 3766 10712 3767 10712 3768 10714
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 179DEG 16KT 3760 10699

LW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
626 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

COZ066>068-280100-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT CO-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT CO-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT CO-
626 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MINERAL AND WESTERN
SAGUACHE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT...

AT 625 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAGON WHEEL GAP...OR 47
MILES NORTH OF DULCE...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO .20 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WEST FORK
COMPLEX BURN SCAR WITH THIS STORM...HOWEVER IF THIS STORM
INTENSIFIES FURTHER THEN HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WESTERN MINERAL AND
WESTERN SAGUACHE COUNTIES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3792 10714 3796 10699 3796 10698 3742 10684
      3742 10707 3753 10713 3767 10712 3768 10715
      3770 10715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 162DEG 26KT 3763 10703

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