Areal Flood Advisory 13, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
300 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014

UPR RIDGE IS OVR THE AREA...WHILE A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW OVR UT
HEADING TOWARD CO WAS HELPING TO INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE WRN
CO BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECTING TO SEE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE DEW
POINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S...AND WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WL
BE...WITH LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM.  OVR THE SERN PLAINS TEMPS ARE
COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS FRONT...AND LAPSE RATES ARE
ONLY AROUND 7C/KM.  NAM12 AND RAP13 ARE SHOWING AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING CAPE VALUES ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR UP TO 1400
J/KG WITH AROUND 40 KTS OF SHEAR.  CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO.  THE FAR SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.  SHOULD SEE
MOST OF THE CONVECTION DIE OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

LATE TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BRING MORE
LOW LEVEL MSTR INTO THE SRN BORDER AREA.  THERE COULD BE SOME LOW
STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE OVR LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY THE UPR RIDGE AXIS WL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AS
AN UPR LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROF MOVE OVR THE WEST COAST.  THE
FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA WL INCREASE FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SFC THERE WL BE SOME BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH TO SW WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY WL HAVE MIN RH VALUES THAT
ARE TOO HIGH TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT.  THE UPR ARKANSAS
VALLEY FROM CHAFFEE COUNTY THROUGH FREMONT AND INTO PUEBLO
COUNTY...MAY SEE RH VALUES FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW 15 PERCENT...ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH...BUT THE FUELS IN CHAFFEE AND FREMONT
COUNTY ARE NOT CRITICAL AND PUEBLO COUNTY IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF LOW RH.  FRI AFTERNOON THE NAM AND GFS HAVE
SHOW SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVR
THE FAR SERN PLAINS.  AT 21Z THE NAM12 HAS LOW TO MID 50 DEW POINTS
OVR FAR SERN CO...RESULTING IN CAPE VALUES UP TO 2300 J/KG.  0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 30 KTS. THE
GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM. GIVEN THIS...CANT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS OVR THE FAR ERN AREAS FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPS ACRS THE AREA ON FRI WL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
WARM CONDITIONS AND LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
BECOMING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST INTO KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MIXING OF DRIER AIR AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE FUEL DEPENDENT...AND WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES PLANNED FOR
SATURDAY...EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED. WITH THE UPPER WAVE PASSING
WELL TO THE NORTH...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS OUR CWA. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE ONE OR TWO CELLS MAY POP
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE RESIDENCE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
BY SUNDAY WITH WEAK ENERGY MOVING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND WEAK NATURE OF THE
DISTURBANCES...HAVE A FEELING MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF STORMS CAN FIRE...THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ENERGY IN THE WESTERLY FLOW.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE OUT OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO COLORADO. MODELS ARE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH 80S TO 90S FOR THE PLAINS. IF THE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A FEW AREAS
MAY START TO PUSH 100 DEGREES.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014

KCOS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR SOME
TSTMS IN THE VCNTY. IF SOME HEAVIER RAIN MOVES OVR THE AREA...THIS
COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. OTRW KCOS SHOULD HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  FRI AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND MAY GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS.

KPUB IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME TSTMS COULD MOVE INTO THE
VCNTY THIS EVENING.  FRI AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND MAY GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS.

KALS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR SOME
TSTMS IN THE VCNTY. IF SOME HEAVIER RAIN MOVES OVR THE AREA...THIS
COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. OTRW KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1118 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014

COZ058>089-093>099-131730-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1118 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.  ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE IN AND
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...PRODUCING HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
ISOLATED...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCARS IN AND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. THEREFORE THOSE IN AND NEAR THE BURN SCARS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS THEY MOVE
EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ENCOUNTER COOLER...MORE STABLE AIR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1/2
INCH IN DIAMETER AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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