Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
140 PM MST TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. EACH DAY
WILL BRING VARYING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY APPEAR TO
BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE THAN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR
FROM THE WEST MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. FOR THE LOWER
DESERTS...THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORM FORMATION WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. DUE TO ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES...HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL STAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION HAD STARTED TO FIRE UP ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM EASTWARD INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION JUST BEGINNING ACROSS SERN AZ. SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE LOWER SRN DESERTS ALTHOUGH THERE WERE ISOLD LIGHTNING
STRIKES NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN MARICOPA COUNTY. MONSOONAL
FLOW PATTERN IS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
DEEP PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH...COVERING MOST
OF ARIZONA. PWAT VALUES FROM THE MORNING AZ SOUNDINGS WERE RUNNING
AROUND 1.8 INCHES...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AT
1 PM WERE ELEVATED AND RANGED FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE MOST
PART. ACTUALLY DEWPOINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN CA WERE UP TO 70.
ALSO...SPC MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS DEPICTED MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AZ WITH PEAK VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG.

PER THE 12Z PLOTS...UPPER HIGH CENTER WAS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FOUR CORNERS...AND THE FLOW ALOFT WAS WEAKLY SELY ACROSS EASTERN
AND CENTRAL AZ...BECOMING MORE SLY TO SWLY ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN
DESERTS. NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING FEATURES/INVERTED TROFS WERE SET TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL BE RATHER
WEAK...MOSTLY LESS THAN 10KT. THERE ARE MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE
FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK DEFORMATION IN THE UPPER STREAMLINE FIELD SO
THERE WILL BE SOME SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION...BUT WE SHOULD NOT SEE
THE TYPE OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT THAT WOULD LEAD TO LARGE SCALE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT
STORMS WILL BE DRIVEN MOSTLY BY BOUNDARY INTERACTION...WITH STORMS
INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN DRIFTING SLOWLY INTO
THE LOWER CENTRAL DESERTS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MERGERS WILL DRIVE NEW
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND WE WILL KEEP DESERT POPS
IN THE 30-40 PERCENT BALLPARK. DUE TO ELEVATED PWAT VALUES...STORMS
TONIGHT WILL MORE LIKELY GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS OPPOSED TO
STRONG DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS. ONE NOTE...LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK PLACED A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA...MAINLY COVERING PINAL COUNTY AS WELL AS FAR SRN FRINGE OF ZONE
23. THIS WAS BASED IN HIGH CAPE AND MOISTURE VALUES...COMBINED WITH
MODEST ELY FLOW IN MID LEVELS. FEEL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE TUS CWA...OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH GUSTY BUT
SUB SEVERE OUTFLOWS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS THIS EVENING.

ALSO...THERE IS SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL
DESERTS TONIGHT FROM A FEW OF THE LOCAL MESOSCALE MODELS...SUCH AS
THE LOCAL WRF AND NMM6KM.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...PROGS SHOW SUBTLE VARIATIONS ON THE
OVERALL THEME...WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN MOISTURE/CAPE VALUES
ACROSS THE DESERTS...AS WELL AS DIFFERING OPINIONS ON PLACEMENT OF
VORT MAXES/DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER.
HOWEVER THE BASIC IDEA IS THE SAME...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY EAST
OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED STORMS IN SERN CA ARE
POSSIBLE BUT POPS WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW AND GENLY BELOW 15 PERCENT
BOTH DAYS. WIND FIELDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK BOTH DAYS...WITH WINDS
ALOFT FAVORING THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SWRN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL DESERTS. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR MAINLY EVENING STORMS
OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WEDNESDAY...AND LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY THURSDAY
AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT AND BECOMES A BIT MORE STABLE.
STILL...POPS WILL STAY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT BALLPARK.

TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL STAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO THE ELEVATED MOISTURE VALUES IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. OF COURSE...SHOULD SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION/RAINS OCCUR
OVER THE DESERTS....HIGH TEMPS COULD DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW 100
DEGREES.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN OPINION ON
MOISTURE AND THE 500 MB PATTERN DURING THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
TIME FRAME. FORECASTS LEAN MORE TOWARD GFS SHOWING A SUBTLE
DOWNTREND FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
THEREAFTER WHICH BETTER REFLECTS CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF PHOENIX WITH OUTFLOWS
SERVING AS THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM. WITH DECENT INSTABILITY IN
PLACE THERE IS A CHANCE STORMS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY. WILL HANG ONTO VCSH/VCTS SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z AS WELL AS INDICATE AN EARLIER THAN USUAL EASTERLY WIND
SHIFT /OUTFLOW DRIVEN/.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
TERMINALS...HOWEVER STORMS COULD JUST SLIP BY TO THE NORTH OF BLYTHE
AS THEY DECAY LATE TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH AT BLH BUT KEEP IPL
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A TYPICAL MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD...WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD LOWER TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES SHOULD SIGNIFICANT MONSOON
RAINS DEVELOP. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON
TAP EACH DAY MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...WITH
SCATTERED STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE EACH DAY...FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL
SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS...HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VM/AJ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...VM/LEINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
700 PM MST TUE JUL 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S QUARTZSITE          33.58N 114.22W
07/08/2014                   LA PAZ             AZ   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORTS FROM QUARTZSITE FIRE AND PRINT MEDIA OF DAMAGED
            AND OVERTURNED RV PROPERTIES IN LA PAZ VALLEY AND SOUTH
            OF QUARTZSITE. WASHES ALSO FLOODING AREA ROADWAYS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400076

NOLTE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
702 PM MST TUE JUL 8 2014

AZZ022-023-027-090245-
MARICOPA AZ-
702 PM MST TUE JUL 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
  FOR THE AREA FROM BUCKEYE SOUTH TO GILA BEND...INCLUDING
  PORTIONS OF STATE HIGHWAY 85...

UNTIL 745 PM MST

AT 650 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...NEAR PALO VERDE NUCLEAR GENERATION
STATION...AND WEST OF GILA BEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BUCKEYE...GILLESPIE
DAM...PALO VERDE AND COTTON CENTER.

LAT...LON 3345 11277 3335 11245 3309 11259 3281 11280
      3282 11330 3358 11299
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 275DEG 4KT 3340 11280

HV
 !

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
738 PM MST TUE JUL 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARKER                  34.13N 114.28W
07/08/2014                   LA PAZ             AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT. 4 MOBILE HOMES FLIPPED OVER. POWER
            POLES DOWN. ROOF DAMAGE. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400077

KINCAID

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
744 PM MST TUE JUL 8 2014

AZZ028-090330-
PINAL AZ-
744 PM MST TUE JUL 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING CASA
  GRANDE...COOLIDGE...INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN PHOENIX AND CASA GRANDE
  AND SACATON...FOR GUSTY 40 TO 45 MPH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH...

UNTIL 830 PM MST

AT 737 PM MST...POWERFUL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF CASA
GRANDE HAVE PRODUCED OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH...
MOVING NORTH. GUSTY CROSS WINDS AND BLOWING DUST COULD HAMPER TRAVEL
ON PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN CASA GRANDE AND PHOENIX.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY...

SOME UNSECURED OBJECTS COULD BE BLOWN AROUND. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS
UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 3276 11174 3276 11177 3279 11178 3278 11187
      3276 11188 3276 11190 3313 11184 3315 11129
      3296 11135 3287 11149 3275 11161 3273 11166
      3273 11174
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 129DEG 3KT 3273 11171

HV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
758 PM MST TUE JUL 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     DUST STORM       ARIZONA CITY            32.75N 111.67W
07/08/2014                   PINAL              AZ   AMATEUR RADIO

            SPOTTER IN ARIZONA CITY REPORTING VSBYS DOWN 10 TO 50FT
            IN DENSE BLOWING DUST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400078

NOLTE

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