River Flood Warning 1, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EARLY SEASON PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES
FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WARMING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MCS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MARICOPA
COUNTY...DROPPING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX AREA.
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH VALLEY GENERALLY RECEIVED BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. HOWEVER...FCDMC
GAGES HAVE RECORDED AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST. THIS HAS PRODUCED AREAS OF URBAN FLOODING ALONG WITH
ELEVATED FLOW IN WASHES AND CREEKS INCLUDING CAVE CREEK AND THE AGUA
FRIA RIVER. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES UNTIL NOON. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY.

LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL DRYING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE LOWER LEVELS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S AND CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSTABLE FROM PHOENIX
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE CO RIVER VALLEY WITH MLCAPE > 1000 J/KG.
BACKBUILDING SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MARICOPA
COUNTY AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CELLS ARE EXPECTED INTO LA PAZ
COUNTY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL THEN SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS
FURTHER EAST ACROSS MARICOPA AND GILA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REFINE THE POPS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PWATS FALL INTO THE 1.25-150
INCH RANGE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER. STILL...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS BEING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
INCREASES BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SECOND HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY NOW
LOOKS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...SINCE LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE NOW
SHOWING MUCH LESS TROPICAL MOISTURE...FROM TROPICAL STORM
LOWELL...BEING PULLED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THUS...HAVE
REDUCED POPS SOMEWHAT ON THU/FRI...BUT STILL KEEPING THINGS
BROADBRUSHED A BIT...SINCE THE EURO CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER...TAKING IT ACROSS AZ ON
FRIDAY...WHILE THE FASTER GFS CONTINUES TO MOVE IT THROUGH ON
THURSDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE COMBINATION OF A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT
WILL LIKELY KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT CLIMO...OR
BELOW LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND TO KEEP US FROM
ELIMINATING CHANCES FOR POPS ENTIRELY AT THIS POINT...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
AS UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MONSOON MOISTURE
INCREASES...STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THIS
MORNING...BECOMING NUMEROUS BY 14-15Z. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDER...AS VCTS...IN TAFS THRU ABOUT 16Z...THEN FIGURE RAIN WILL
HAVE COOLED AND STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD BE
IN A MORE SHOWERY REGIME THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE IS SEEN THIS AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEAL WITH AT THE TERMINALS. WILL
WAIT FOR LATER TO SEE HOW THAT PLAYS OUT. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
FAVOR THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...TRANSITIONING MORE
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

NOTE...IF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO TAKE THEIR TIME
DEVELOPING...THE TAFS WILL BE OVERPLAYING THE WEATHER AND WILL NEED
TO BE UPDATED TO PUSH BACK THE PRECIP ONSET.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOSTLY STAY EAST OF KIPL TODAY...WITH
COVERAGE AT KBLH TO BE MORE ON THE ISOLATED SIDE. WITH UPPER JET
APPROACHING...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR AFTN/EARLY EVE THUNDER AT
THE TERMINAL AND THUS WILL KEEP VCTS IN THE KBLH TAF. WINDS TO FAVOR
THE SOUTH AT KBLH...BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AOB
20KT. AT KIPL...EXPECT MID/UPPER CLOUD DECKS TO SCATTER OUT BY 18Z
WITH WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST...BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY
FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL STAY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH COOLER DESERTS FALLING INTO THE 90S.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY QUITE ELEVATED WITH MOST OF THE DESERTS
RECORDING MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. A STEADY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY SUNDAY
THERE WILL BE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE DRYING
TREND...MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL STAY ON THE ELEVATED SIDE AND SHOULD
MOSTLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT. NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
347 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

AZZ020>028-CAZ031-201100-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
347 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2014 /347 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WEST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER (FOR MID-
AUGUST) APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO BE FROM THE
MID-MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVY RAIN...LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF A UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION AND LINGERING MONSOON MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX
SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS. DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,,,AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
823 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WSW DESERT RIDGE MARK 33.65N 112.03W
08/19/2014  M1.32 INCH       MARICOPA           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED RAINFALL BETWEEN 0630 AND 0730 MST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400217

MCLANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
854 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WNW SOUTH MOUNTAIN PA 33.35N 112.14W
08/19/2014                   MARICOPA           AZ   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WATER RESCUE CONDUCTED BY PHOENIX FIRE DEPARTMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400218

MCLANE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
932 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NEW RIVER               33.92N 112.13W
08/19/2014                   MARICOPA           AZ   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WATER RESCUE CONDUCTED BY PHOENIX FIRE DEPARTMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400220

MCLANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
939 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ESE NEW RIVER         33.89N 112.05W
08/19/2014                   MARICOPA           AZ   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WATER RESCUE CONDUCTED BY PHOENIX FIRE DEPARTMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400221

MCLANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W CAVE CREEK          33.81N 112.06W
08/19/2014                   MARICOPA           AZ   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WATER RESCUE CONDUCTED BY PHOENIX FIRE DEPARTMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400222

MCLANE