Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Phoenix, AZ

529 
WWUS85 KPSR 170920
RFWPSR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
220 AM MST TUE JUN 17 2014

AZZ131>133-CAZ231-180200-
/O.CON.KPSR.FW.W.0010.140617T1800Z-140618T0200Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 131                                    
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 132                                    
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 133                                    
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
CALIFORNIA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 231                                 
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
220 AM MST TUE JUN 17 2014 /220 AM PDT TUE JUN 17 2014/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MST /11 AM PDT/
THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST /7 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING FOR STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE TONTO
NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS...THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN ARIZONA...YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND 
  VICINITY/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND 
  SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL 
  FOREST FOOTHILLS. IN CALIFORNIA...LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY 
  CA.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING...PEAKING
  THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...5-10 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...FUELS ARE VERY DRY AND FIRE DANGER IS BECOMING VERY 
  HIGH TO EXTREME. THESE CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE 
  HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS 
  FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

236 
WWUS85 KPSR 172034
RFWPSR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
134 PM MST TUE JUN 17 2014

AZZ131>133-CAZ231-180200-
/O.CON.KPSR.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140618T0200Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 131                                    
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 132                                    
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 133                                    
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
CALIFORNIA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 231                                 
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
134 PM MST TUE JUN 17 2014 /134 PM PDT TUE JUN 17 2014/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST /7 PM PDT/
FOR STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH FIRE DANGER 
OVER A LARGE PART OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN ARIZONA...YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND 
  VICINITY/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND 
  SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL 
  FOREST FOOTHILLS. IN CALIFORNIA...LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY 
  CA.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING
  AFTER SUNSET.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 7 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...FUELS ARE VERY DRY AND FIRE DANGER IS BECOMING VERY 
  HIGH TO EXTREME. THESE CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE 
  HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS 
  FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

017 
WWUS85 KPSR 180209
RFWPSR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
709 PM MST TUE JUN 17 2014

AZZ131>133-CAZ231-180315-
/O.EXP.KPSR.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140618T0200Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 131                                    
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 132                                    
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 133                                    
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
CALIFORNIA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 231                                 
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
709 PM MST TUE JUN 17 2014 /709 PM PDT TUE JUN 17 2014/

...RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AT 7 PM MST/PDT FOR STRONG WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE
AND VICINITY...THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
DESERTS...SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...AND THE TONTO NATIONAL FOREST
FOOTHILLS...


ALTHOUGH LOCALLY BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STILL CONTINUING
ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...THE DESERTS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS
EVENING...WINDS HAD TAPERED OFF QUITE A BIT SINCE LATE AFTERNOON AND
WERE WELL BELOW RED FLAG WARNING THRESHOLDS FOR THE MOST PART. AS A
RESULT THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
255 PM MST MON JUN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN DRY
WESTERLY FLOW AND NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS AND LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST HAZARD FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. A SEASONABLY BROAD AND DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE WRN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BASAL PORTION OF THE
JET CORE ROUNDING THROUGH NRN ARIZONA/SRN UTAH. THIS TROUGH WILL
REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND FURTHEST SOUTHERN REACH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE FILLING AND LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
MIDWEEK AND BEYOND. THE LOWEST HEIGHTS DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL SUPPORT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH EVEN THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA FAILING TO REACH THE 100F THRESHOLD ON WEDNESDAY.

IN THE INTERIM...A STEEP LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE H7-H5 JET CORE
CHARACTERIZED BY 30-60KT WINDS TOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DUE TO
UNUSUALLY DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING DEPTHS (ON THE ORDER OF 15K-17K
FT)...A PORTION OF THIS JET CORE AND MOMENTUM WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO
THE SFC (PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN) SUCH THAT WIND GUSTS IN A
25-40 MPH RANGE WILL BE COMMON. IF ANYTHING...MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY
OCCUR QUICKER TUESDAY (POTENTIALLY WITH EVEN STRONGER SUSTAINED
WINDS) IN CONJUNCTION WITH FALLING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...SUCH
THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS SHOULD BE MET FOR A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY FUELS AND ABNORMALLY HIGH
ERC MEASURES THROUGHOUT THE REGION...FELT IT PRUDENT TO HOIST A RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARIZONA DISTRICTS. IN REALITY...THE
AREAS OF MOST CONCERN EXTEND FROM BLYTHE/PARKER ACROSS TO
WICKENBURG...AS WELL AS NEAR TERRAIN FEATURES OF ERN MARICOPA/SRN
GILA COUNTY (IE. NOT INCLUDING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA).

OTHERWISE...THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL OUTPUT STILL SUGGESTS A SWATH OF
MODEST LOW AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS SERN ARIZONA
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MIXING RATIOS AROUND 5 G/KG THROUGH THE
SFC-H7 LAYER STILL APPEAR PROBABLE IN A FEED FROM NRN SONORA
CLIPPING INTO PINAL AND SRN GILA COUNTIES. ACTIVITY/DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA PER SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON STILL
APPEARS RATHER FLAT AND NON-DESCRIPT (LIKELY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
INVERSION)...WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATING THE MORE
ROBUST/DEEPER CONVECTION LIMITED TO FAR SERN ARIZONA. AFTERNOON
RADAR MOSAICS ARE SAMPLING THE FIRST SIGNS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES
ALONG I-10 EAST OF TUCSON...WITH SREF QPF PROBABILITIES MINIMAL
ELSEWHERE AND ONLY A FEW NMM CORES SUGGESTING ACTIVITY SPREADING
NORTHWARD.

WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND THETA-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX WHILE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW SCOURS ANY REMAINING SCANT MOISTURE EASTWARD. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW AND DAMPENED HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL LIKELY TRAIL THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEEPING KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RANGE. BY THE WEEKEND...RIDGE HEIGHTS
(H5 HEIGHTS AOA 588DM) WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 06Z TUE...SCT HIGH CLDS AOA 17 THSD MSL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 30 KNOTS. FROM 06Z TUE TO 17Z TUE...SCT HIGH CLDS AOA 17
THSD MSL. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 7 TO 10 KNOTS. FROM 18Z TUE TO 03Z
WED...SCT CLDS AOA 17 THSD MSL. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND 15 TO 30
KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH EACH DAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 9 PERCENT RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY AZZ020>028.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM PDT TUESDAY CAZ031.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION....HV
FIRE WEATHER...HV