Flash Flood Warning 58, NWS Phoenix, AZ

942 
WGUS75 KPSR 090239
FFSPSR

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
739 PM MST MON SEP 8 2014

AZC012-090400-
/O.CON.KPSR.FF.W.0058.000000T0000Z-140909T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LA PAZ AZ-
739 PM MST MON SEP 8 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MST FOR
CENTRAL LA PAZ COUNTY...

AT 734 PM MST...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS STARTING TO TAPER OFF BUT 
RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING UNTIL ABOUT 9 PM.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
BOUSE...BRENDA...AND HIGHWAY 72 AND HIGHWAY 60.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT PEOPLE ALONG THE BANKS OF WASHES AND
CREEKS SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. NORMALLY DRY WASHES
AND STREAMS WILL SUDDENLY HAVE RUNNING WATER AND MAKE UNBRIDGED
CROSSINGS IMPASSABLE. STREETS...UNDERPASSES...AND LOW SPOTS WILL
BECOME INUNDATED MAKING DRIVING HAZARDOUS IN THE WARNED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3404 11425 3408 11397 3366 11383 3360 11404

$$

AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
452 PM MST MON SEP 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...HOWEVER MOST OF THE LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THUS...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY...THOUGH
SOME COULD STILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND WILL BEGIN STARTING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TIL MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS OF EXTREME SW
AZ AND PORTIONS OF SE CA. WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING IN THESE
AREAS...FELT IT PRUDENT TO KEEP THE WATCH IN PLACE. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE PHOENIX AREA THE THREAT FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
WANING AND THE WATCH WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RECORD AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAVE SURGED INTO THE REGION
WITH 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SAMPLING 2.03 INCH PWAT (A RECORD FOR THE
MONTH OF SEPTEMBER). COMBINED WITH ASCENT FROM A WAVE CAUGHT BETWEEN
THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF WHAT WAS NORBERT AND A WAVE IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ENTERING THE SIERRA...ALL-TIME RECORD RAINFALL HAS FALLEN
THROUGHOUT THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. SKY HARBOR HAS RECORDED 3.29
INCHES OF RAIN BREAKING THE CALENDAR DAY RECORD OF 2.91 INCHES SET
BACK IN 1939. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE...STRONGER SUBSIDENCE HAS
BUILT INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS NOW TIED TO 2 SHORTWAVES...1) THE LINGERING CNTRL ARIZONA
WAVE OVER THE FAR SERN PARTS OF THE STATE...AND 2) A SECONDARY
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DRIVING EAST TOWARDS SRN NEVADA. AS SUCH...ONLY
SCT/ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
PRIMARILY FOCUSED THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS MANY COMPETING FEATURES COME
INTO PLAY DRIVING (OR INHIBITING) CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
COVERAGE. FORCES/ELEMENTS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION INCLUDE A
CONTINUATION OF AN ABNORMALLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING RATIOS 11-14 G/KG) AND FORCED ASCENT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING TOWARDS NORTHWEST
ARIZONA. DETRIMENTAL FACTORS INCLUDE A VERY DISCERNIBLE DRYSLOT
MOVING NORTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE OLD NORBERT CIRCULATION WEST
OF THE BAJA...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MIDLEVELS HELPING REDUCE
OVERALL INSTABILITY. THE VAST MAJORITY OF HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE
MODELS (WHICH HAVE PERFORMED VERY WELL IN THIS EVENT TO THIS POINT)
REALLY TARGET NORTHWEST ARIZONA EXTENDING SOUTH INTO LA PAZ AND YUMA
COUNTIES AS THE PRIME REAL ESTATE FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
THEREFORE...HAVE REALLY TRIMMED POPS OVER THE SERN CWA INCLUDING THE
PHOENIX METRO...WHILE FOCUSING 50 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND
WILL COMMENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STEADILY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. TOTAL MOISTURE WILL RATHER SLOW TO ERODE AS LOW/MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE...HOWEVER NOTABLE DRY AIR
SEEN IN WV IMAGERY OVER THE EAST PACIFIC SHOULD OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...THOUGH UPPER WINDS WILL MOSTLY
FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS AN UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR BRINGING
ANY HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE...REACHING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
VALUES BY ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CHANCES OF GETTING ANY ADDITIONAL TS/SHRA INTO TERMINALS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING IS UNLIKELY. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY
PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES...LOWER CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO HUG
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING OPERATIONS.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH GENERALLY AOA 7K
FT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION...THOUGH MAY
VEER TO SW FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SOME ISOLD THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN CALIFORNIA
TERMINALS...THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE SITES.
HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF VCSH AS THE MAJORITY OF LIGHTNING HAS
MOVED NORTH. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY SCT AND
ABOVE 6K FT. SFC WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT MAY
BECOME VARIABLE IN SOME CASES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD BE VERY SLIGHT...AND PRIMARILY LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GILA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO A
15-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. ASIDE
FROM SOME AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT AZZ020-021.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT CAZ030>032.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/MO/CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
544 PM MST MON SEP 8 2014

AZZ020-021-CAZ030>032-091400-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-
544 PM MST MON SEP 8 2014 /544 PM PDT MON SEP 8 2014/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO
URBAN FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

AZZ022>028-CAZ033-091400-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
IMPERIAL COUNTY-
544 PM MST MON SEP 8 2014 /544 PM PDT MON SEP 8 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LINGERING RUNOFF FROM EARLY
MORNING STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT HOWEVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
WINDS TO 45 MPH AND DEADLY LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED.

A GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
114 PM MST MON SEP 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E TEMPE               33.38N 111.90W
09/08/2014  M4.80 INCH       MARICOPA           AZ   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400277

KINCAID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
150 PM MST MON SEP 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SE TEMPE              33.36N 111.90W
09/08/2014  M5.75 INCH       MARICOPA           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400278

KINCAID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
545 PM MST MON SEP 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW BOUSE              33.94N 114.01W
09/08/2014  M0.50 INCH       LA PAZ             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.5 INCHES RAIN IN 30 MIN. BOUSE WASH RUNNING

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1400279

DEWEY