Dust Storm Warning 3, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
301 PM MST SAT JUL 5 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER
HUMIDITIES...AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT EARLIER CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO INCREASING INSOLATION AND INSTABILITY.
LATEST GPS-IPW AT TEMPE REGISTERED AT 1.8 INCHES...MORE TYPICAL OF A
VERY MOIST AUGUST DAY THAN JULY. HOWEVER...EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE
EXISTS ACROSS SW AZ DOWNSTREAM OF THE GOC. CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOST
CONCENTRATED SO FAR IN THE VICINITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT. WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA...A STRONG CELL EARLIER THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN JTNP PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS QUITE WEAK BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SE CA AND AN ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHING FROM
UT INTO SOUTHERN NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
INITIALIZING AND RESOLVING THE MULTIPLE VORTICES AND MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITIES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CONSENSUS AMONG BOTH
THE PARAMETERIZED AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS IS THAT HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ. WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL CONSEQUENTLY INHIBIT PROPAGATION AND CONGEALING
OUTFLOWS IN THE LOWER DESERTS. NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED AIR MASS
STORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE (BLENDED
150-200% OF NORMAL) ALREADY IN PLACE. GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING
FLOW...THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND ISOLATED STRONG WINDS.

LATEST PAINTBALL AND NEIGHBORHOOD ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FROM THE
CAMS ALSO SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS IS CERTAINLY
A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT MCV LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A TYPICAL EARLY JULY MONSOON PATTERN
FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. THERE AREN\T ANY SPECIFIC DAYS THAT STAND OUT AS ACTIVE
AND NO OBVIOUS TROUGHS/PV DISTURBANCES EVIDENT FROM ANY OF THE MAJOR
MODELS. IN THE SHORT TERM...SUNDAY\S FORECAST WILL BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT UPON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY /HARD TO GET BACK TO BACK ACTIVE
DAYS...ALSO UNLIKELY TO GET BACK TO BACK QUIET DAYS IN THIS REGIME/.
WILL LEAVE POPS RELATIVELY ELEVATED FOR SUNDAY...THEN TRANSITION
INTO A MORE CLIMO-LIKE APPEARANCE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON WHAT THE MODELS DO WITH A TROUGH ON TUESDAY. EUROPEAN
BRINGS AN H5 WAVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO...INTO SONORA...THEN BACK
THROUGH ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED
THIS SOLUTION FOR AT LEAST 2 CONSECUTIVE RUNS...THE GFS ISN\T NEARLY
AS ENTHUSED AND ACTUALLY SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. NOT GOING TO PUT MUCH STOCK IN EITHER
SOLUTION THIS FAR IN ADVANCE SINCE NEITHER SEEM LIKE A LOCK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MORE NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
EVENING/OVERNIGHT STORMS AT AIRFIELDS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO
REFLECT IN THE TAFS...BUT GENERALLY SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS AOA 9000FT
WILL PERSIST DURING THE PERIOD. IF ANY STORMS MANAGE TO FORM THEY
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...STRONG OUTFLOWS TO 45KT...
WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOWERED CEILINGS.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE LIGHT WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KT AT ALL TAF SITES
FROM 03Z THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HUMIDITIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH A SLOW DECLINE OF STORM CHANCES. HOWEVER...ANY GIVEN DAY COULD
TURN OUT TO BE QUITE ACTIVE WHICH WOULD REVERSE ANY DOWNWARD
HUMIDITY TRENDS. EXPECT A LIGHT WIND REGIME EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/AJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
352 PM MST SAT JUL 5 2014

AZZ021-052315-
LA PAZ AZ-
352 PM MST SAT JUL 5 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL LA PAZ COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 415 PM MST

AT 350 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR QUARTZSITE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   QUARTZSITE...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY PONDING ON SOME ROADS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN HEAVY RAINFALL...SLOW DOWN
TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING...AND LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE
BETWEEN YOURSELF AND OTHER VEHICLES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING. IF STORMS APPROACH
YOUR LOCATION OR YOU HEAR THUNDER...MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING OR
AN ALL METAL VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3376 11430 3371 11409 3360 11416 3360 11432
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 220DEG 4KT 3365 11423

KUHLMAN

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