Dust Storm Warning 2, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
229 PM MST THU JUL 3 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARRIVAL OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH MORE CLOUDS
AND INCREASING STORM CHANCES. STORM CHANCES PEAK FOR THE FOURTH OF
JULY HOLIDAY AND ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS COULD REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE HAS MIGRATED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS IS PRODUCING A FAVORABLE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AND
AFTERNOON MDCRS FLIGHTS SUGGEST WINDS NEAR 15K FT HAVE INCREASED TO
15-20 KT. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY
COOL...CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH CENTER IS CLOSE...RESULTING IN
STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES >7C/KM. TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB HAVE
BEEN MEASURED AS LOW AS -8/-9C THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST GPS-IPW AT
TEMPE ALSO INDICATES THAT TOTAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STEADILY
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES. EVEN AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MID 50S PREVALENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
AND EVEN UPPER 60S IN THE IMPERIAL VALLEY.

CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INDICATING THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ...INCLUDING PINAL AND SOUTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTIES...THOUGH RECENT TRENDS IN THE U OF A WRFS AND HRRR
SUGGEST THAT PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX AREA MAY BE ACTIVE AS WELL THIS
EVENING. SOME INHIBITION IS PRESENT DUE TO WARMING AROUND 450 MB.
HOWEVER...NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOWS WILL PROMOTE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER DESERTS MAINLY FROM MARICOPA COUNTY
EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING. POPS WERE RAISED TO AROUND 30 PERCENT
IN THESE AREAS...THOUGH THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD IS AGAIN FOR
WIND/DUST IMPACTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SEASONAL
REVERSAL OF WINDS THAT DEFINES THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THAT TYPICALLY DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MONTH OF JUNE
BECOMES EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY...AS WE BEGIN TO WORK OUR WAY
DEEPER INTO THE 1ST WEEK OF JULY.

AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS CONCERNED...LATEST
MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO RAISE PWAT'S INTO THE 1.50-1.80 INCH RANGE
AND MUCAPES INTO THE 700-1000 J/KG RANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AND NOW HOLD THEM AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT EACH DAY...IT APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
AZ...AND EVEN A FEW INTO SOUTHEAST CA...AND BRING OUR FIRST
MEASURABLE RAIN OF THE SUMMER SEASON TO SOME LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS.
AS FAR AS WHICH DAY WILL BE MOST ACTIVE...THAT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SPREADS NORTHWARD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD INHIBIT ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS ALLOW SATURDAY TO BE THE BUSIER DAY. ANYWAYS...AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS THAT FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILE AND DEEPER MOISTURE COLUMN TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...ON EITHER
DAY...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG WINDS...AND DENSE BLOWING DUST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE STORMS IN
EACH AREA TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS WHICH WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
METRO PHOENIX AREA SOMETIME THIS EVENING WITH THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME BEING BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z. GUSTY WINDS...BLOWING DUST...AND
EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
PHOENIX TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KIWA. CONFIDENCE IN HOW STRONG THE
WINDS WILL BE AND AS FAR AS HOW LOW VISIBILITIES COULD GO DOWN TO IS
STILL LOW...BUT THERE IS DEFINITELY A FAIR SHOT AT SOME GUSTY WINDS
GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS AND DENSE BLOWING DUST. AM CURRENTLY WAITING
FOR THE STORMS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED TO ADD ANY STRONG WINDS OR
BLOWING DUST TO THE TAFS.

WILL CERTAINLY SEE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS
CLOUD DECKS OVERSPREAD THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SOME BASES DOWN TO NEAR 10K FEET BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS POSSIBLY SPREADING IN FROM THE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 12KT EXPECTED AT KIPL
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY...AND KBLH INTO TONIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL RAMP-UP OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LINGERING FOR SATURDAY BEFORE SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
HIGHEST MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES LIKELY TO BE ON SATURDAY WITH
MOST DESERT AREAS IN EXCESS OF 20 PERCENT. SLIGHT DRYING EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 15
PERCENT OVER THE SERN CA/SWRN AZ DESERTS. DUE TO HIGH HUMIDITY
VALUES AND CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL LOWER TO
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...THEN CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL OR EVEN
SLIGHT ABOVE BY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE VALUES GRADUALLY DECREASE.
WINDS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
344 AM MST THU JUL 3 2014

AZZ022>024-027-028-041045-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
344 AM MST THU JUL 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AND OVER THE RIM COUNTY AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR TODAY WILL AREAS OF
DENSE BLOWING DUST GENERATED BY DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
OVER PINAL AND MARICOPA COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS...AND AREAS OF DENSE BLOWING DUST. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

AZZ020-021-025-026-CAZ030>033-041045-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
344 AM MST THU JUL 3 2014 /344 AM PDT THU JUL 3 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WEST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE THREAT OF
LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST NEAR ANY PARENT THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FURTHER INCREASE OF MONSOON MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WILL BRING CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY LAST INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

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