Wind Advisory 6, NWS Portland, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BRING A
WARMER AND WET WEEK TO THE PACIFIC NW. THE STRONGEST STORMS OF THE
WEEK ARE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH PLENTY
OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS...THEN ANOTHER WET STORM IS EXPECTED
FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...EARLY TUE MORNING SOME SUB FREEZING TEMPS STUBBORNLY
WERE HOLDING ON IN THE VICINTY OF HOOD RIVER AND UP THE HOOD RIVER
VALLEY. BY 1 AM THE TTD TO DLS PRES GRADIENT FINALLY TURNED WEAKLY
ONSHORE...AND WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INDICATE ONSHORE PRES
GRADIENTS DEVELOPING EXPECT WARMING TO BRING FREEZING RAIN TO AN END
AROUND DAYBREAK. STILL...WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO MONITOR NEED FOR ANY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY.

OVERALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL SEE ONSHORE FLOW WITH FAIRLY STRONG
WSW FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVELS IN THIS PATTERN REMAIN MOIST...SO CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGH MID WEEK. THE DOMINANT SYSTEM
THOUGH IS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A JET MAX ALONG THE WA OREGON BORDER 12Z WED...WHILE
DRAWING UP A LONG MOISTURE PLUME WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SFC
LOW ON THE ORDER OF 990 MB NE ACROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND EARLY WED
MORNING...WITH A STRONG SFC PRES GRADIENT EXTENDING S ALONG THE
COAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN EARLY WED. WITH STRONG DYNAMICS...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE EXPECT A WET NIGHT TUE NIGHT...AND
HIGH WINDS WITH THE FRONT LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. IN
ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN...WILL ADD A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW TO
THE S WA CASCADES.

STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION HIGH WED...THEN SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND WEAKENING FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN POPS WED NIGHT AND THU.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE MORE
ZONAL...MILDER...AND DAMP PATTERN THAT BEGAN DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM...WITH A MOIST
WARM FRONT MOVING THURSDAY NIGHT AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM FRONT SATURDAY AND
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS HAVE DEEP SURFACE
LOWS THAT MOVE INTO B.C....AND MAY PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR COAST. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE RAIN FOR OUR AREA THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN SOME TIME. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHETHER ANY FLOODING
COULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT CURRENT MODELS MAY HAVE ENOUGH BREAK BETWEEN
SYSTEMS TO AVOID FLOODING. WE MAY ADD A LITTLE SNOW TO THE CASCADES A
COUPLE OF TIMES...MAINLY FRIDAY AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
				   TOLLESON

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT IS BRINGING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN CONTROL AT
THE COAST...WHILE A MIX OF IFR...MVFR...AND VFR ARE BEING
OBSERVED OVER THE INTERIOR. IN ADDITION TO STRATUS...A FEW
POCKETS OF FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WE MAY ALSO SEE A BIT OF
IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES...WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR WITH
SOME PERIODS OF VFR. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
HEAVY RAIN ONTO THE COAST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD
INLAND TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING CONDITIONS BACK DOWN TO
MVFR OR IFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE -FZRA THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE TEMPS WARM
ABOVE FREEZING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
MORNING IN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE A BIT LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD IN THIS
EVENING...BRINGING CONDITIONS BACK TO IFR/LOW MVFR. PYLE

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY BENIGN OVER THE WATERS THIS
MORNING...WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KT AND SEAS RUNNING
AROUND 5 TO 6 FT. HOWEVER...A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS LATER TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WED MORNING. THE FCST MODELS INDICATE THAT BORDERLINE STORM
FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO SOME COASTAL
JET ENHANCEMENT. DECIDED TO ADD SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 50 TO 55
KT TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT DO NOT THINK THAT THESE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO UPGRADE FROM THE GALE WARNING. STRONG WLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
LATEST MODELS RUNS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES THU NIGHT AND
OTHER ONE OVER THE WEEKEND.

SEAS BUILD TO 10 FT LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN
REACH 15 TO 18 FT TUE NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE WIND-WAVE COMPONENT TUE
NIGHT. FAIRLY ACTIVE SEA STATE THE REST OF THE WEEK...POSSIBLY
REACHING CLOSE TO 20 FT OVER THE WEEKEND. PYLE

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-COAST RANGE OF
     NORTHWEST OREGON.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     WILLAPA HILLS.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.

	 WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE S WA CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
     AND TONIGHT.

PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM PST
     THIS EVENING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM PST
     WEDNESDAY.

&&

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.