Wind Advisory 19, NWS Portland, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
827 PM PST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONE LAST SHORT WAVE OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...MAINTAINING THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWERS WITH MODERATE
SNOW IN THE CASCADES. DRYING BUT VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR INCREASING OFFSHORE EAST WINDS...WHILE USHERING
IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON. THE WIDESPREAD EAST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
COULD APPROACH VALUES SEEN IN MID NOVEMBER. THIS COLD AIR MASS WILL
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS APPEAR PROBABLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES
ON TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS WEAK AND UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS SOME
MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ONE LAST SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...MAINTAINING THE COLD SHOWER ONSHORE FLOW
INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON...AND PRODUCING SOME
MODERATE SNOWFALL AT TIMES IN THE CASCADES AND WILL MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT SNOW ADVISORIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS COULD BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW TO THE
HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND THE HIGHER COAST RANGE AS WELL.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTH IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING AND
ACROSS THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS MUCH COLDER AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND BRISK EAST WINDS BEGIN TO
SPREAD OVER THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN ARCTIC FRONT AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLDER AIR MASS THAT MOVES THROUGH THE GORGE AND
ACROSS THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND MUCH OF THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES
MONDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SNOW WITH THIS IN THE
GORGE...BUT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AND WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF AMOUNTS COULD REACH
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. AS THE COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD...THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF
SNOWFLAKES MONDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

OF MORE IMPORTANCE IS THE DEVELOPING EAST WIND EVENT. THIS LOOKS LIKE
A WIDESPREAD EVENT UP AND OVER THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE AND
IMPACTING THE DOWNSTREAM VALLEYS AND COAST. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND REACH THEIR PEAK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS LOOKS MUCH LIKE THE DOWNSLOPE EAST WINDSTORMS WE HAD IN OCTOBER
AND MID NOVEMBER...AND WIND SPEEDS COULD GET CLOSE TO THOSE VALUES.
LEAVES ARE MOSTLY OFF THE TREES...BUT SOME POWER DISRUPTIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE PORTLAND AND
VANCOUVER METRO AREAS AND ADJACENT CASCADE FOOTHILLS FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE AIDED BY THE STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT AS THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD
EASE BY TUESDAY EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...THE DRY AND COLD AIR MASS AND
SOME EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY INTO
THURSDAY.

THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. THESE WILL LIKELY FALL THIS
WEEK TO THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR. WE COULD SEE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN WINDY AREAS
STAYING UP IN THE MID 20S OR SO. DAYTIME TEMPS THIS WEEK WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS. ALL IN ALL A PRETTY COLD
AND MISERABLE WEEK COMING UP. TOLLESON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...EASTERLY WINDS START TO
WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BRINGING RAIN
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
BRINGING THE SYSTEM THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING IT THROUGH ON FRIDAY
MORNING AS OPPOSED TO THURSDAY NIGHT AS FORECAST YESTERDAY. THE
TIMING COULD EASILY STILL CHANGE. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WINTRY
MIX ALL THE WAY TO THE VALLEY FLOOR AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING AND ONSHORE WINDS CHANGE OVER
PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN BELOW 3000 FT. MORE SEASONAL...RAINY
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...COOL NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z MON.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH
AS THE SW WA WILLAPA HILLS...OREGON COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES WILL
BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED IN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND
1000 FT BY MON MORNING. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM N
TO S MON AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. VFR CLEAR ACROSS THE
REGION BY 00Z TUE EXCEPT FOR EAST UPSLOPE FLOW AGAINST THE CASCADE
EAST SLOPES RESULTING IN OVC CONDITIONS NEAR THE CREST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z
TUE...BUT OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING IN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF -SHRASN 12Z-18Z MON BUT NO IMPACT
TO RUNWAY OPERATIONS. RAPID CLEARING MON AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. EAST WIND LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT KTTD
16Z-18Z...BUT NOT AT KPDX UNTIL 20Z OR SO. GUSTS 50-65 KT AT THE W
END OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE AFTER 00Z TUE. WEISHAAR
&&

.MARINE...GUSTY NW WIND WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...WITH
THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NRN WATERS. LATEST NAM MODEL SHOWS
A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AROUND 09Z
MON...THEN SLIDING S MON MORNING. NAM AND GFS SHOW 20-25 KT WIND
SPEEDS OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING...PRIMARILY OVER THE OUTER WATERS
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW. BASED ON THIS HAVE OPTED
TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND IN THE S WATERS. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE N WATERS MON AFTERNOON AND THEN
STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS TO THE S WATERS BY MON EVENING. THIS DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A COASTAL GAP SITUATION BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT. THERE
MAY BE A FEW HOUR RESPITE IN WIND SPEEDS OVER THE S WATERS MON
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE AND
JUST EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WIND THROUGH 12Z TUE. THE
NAM SHOWS A CHANGE TO MORE N-NE WIND AROUND MID-WEEK... WHICH WOULD
FAVOR THE S WATERS WITH CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS.

WAVE HEIGHTS 11 TO 14 FT AS OF 04Z...A FOOT OR TWO HIGHER THAN THE
ENP GUIDANCE. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS LOOKS
GOOD AND WILL LEAVE AS IS. SEAS TO BECOME MORE WIND-WAVE DOMINATED
BEGINNING LATE MON OR MON EVENING. SPECTRAL ANALYSIS BULLETIN FOR
BUOY 029 INDICATES 4 FT WAVE HEIGHTS 06Z TUE WITH THE PRIMARY
LONGER-PERIOD SWELL ONLY 2 FT. SEAS WILL BECOME RATHER CHOPPY WITH
THE SHORTER-PERIOD WIND WAVE COMPONENT. WEISHAAR
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-NORTHERN OREGON
     CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST MONDAY FOR CASCADES IN
     LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR  NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

WA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
     FOOTHILLS.

     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST MONDAY FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
     OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM PST MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 3 AM
     PST MONDAY.

&&

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

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