River Flood Warning 21, NWS Portland, OR

165 
WGUS86 KPQR 210123
FLSPQR
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
523 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014
 
NW Oregon/SW Washington Coastal Rivers Bulletin 



...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...Oregon...

  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County
  Nehalem River near Foss affecting Clatsop and Tillamook Counties
  Wilson River near Tillamook affecting Tillamook County
  Trask River near Tillamook affecting Tillamook County
  Siletz River at Siletz affecting Lincoln County
  Alsea River Near Tidewater affecting Benton and Lincoln Counties
  Siuslaw River near Mapleton affecting Lane County

River forecasts are based on observed and forecast rainfall and
temperatures, and they include current and planned reservoir 
releases.

For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit 
weather.gov/portland.

The next update for these locations will be issued by 1:00 am Sunday.

WAC069-210923-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0016.141221T0458Z-141222T0849Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.141221T0458Z.141221T1200Z.141222T0249Z.UU/
523 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Grays River near Rosburg.
* from this evening to late Sunday night or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 2 PM Saturday the stage was...9.4 feet / 3400 cfs.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet and flood flow is 8300 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage around 9 PM 
  Saturday and is expected to crest near 13.0 ft around 4 AM Sunday.
* Impact...Above 12.0 feet, expect some flooding of roads along and 
  near the Grays River, including roadway approaches to the Altoona 
  Bridge over the Grays, and portions of Covered Bridge Road, 
  Barr-Durrah Road, and Loop Road near Rosburg and Hwy 4.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4630 12368 4631 12370 4636 12361 4637 12355 4635 12356

$$

ORC007-057-210923-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0017.141221T0817Z-141222T1329Z/
/FSSO3.1.ER.141221T0817Z.141221T1800Z.141222T0729Z.NO/
523 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Nehalem River near Foss.
* from late tonight to late Sunday night or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 5 PM Saturday the stage was...11.5 feet / 15400 cfs.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet and flood flow is 25900 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage around 12 AM 
  Sunday and is expected to crest near 16.8 ft around 10 AM Sunday.
* Impact...Above 15 ft, expect minor flooding of low lying farm land 
  and structures.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4568 12389 4573 12391 4574 12387 4573 12376 4570 12375

$$

ORC057-210923-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0018.141221T0321Z-141222T0332Z/
/TLMO3.1.ER.141221T0321Z.141221T1200Z.141221T2132Z.UU/
523 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wilson River near Tillamook.
* until Sunday evening or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 4 PM Saturday the stage was...11.1 feet / 13900 cfs.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet and flood flow is 16200 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage around 7 PM 
  Saturday and is expected to crest near 13.4 ft around 4 AM Sunday.
* Impact...Above 12 ft, Minor flooding of low lying dairy and pasture 
  land north and east of Tillamook can be expected, particularly 
  during high tides.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4546 12385 4549 12385 4548 12373 4547 12372 4546 12375

$$

ORC057-210923-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0019.141221T0951Z-141222T0009Z/
/TRAO3.1.ER.141221T0951Z.141221T1200Z.141221T1809Z.NO/
523 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Trask River near Tillamook.
* from late tonight to Sunday afternoon or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 4 PM Saturday the stage was...9.9 feet / 2600 cfs.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet and flood flow is 12100 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage around 2 AM 
  Sunday and is expected to crest near 18.5 ft around 4 AM Sunday.
* Impact...Above 16.5 ft, Expect some minor flooding along the lower 
  Trask River. Dairy farms, buildings, and a few residences adjacent 
  to the Trask in the vicinity of Hwy 101 may be threatened.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4543 12372 4542 12381 4545 12388 4546 12388 4544 12371

$$

ORC041-210923-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0020.141221T0113Z-141222T0449Z/
/SILO3.1.ER.141221T0014Z.141221T0600Z.141221T2249Z.NO/
523 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Siletz River at Siletz.
* from this afternoon to Sunday evening or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 4 PM Saturday the stage was...16.3 feet / 19500 cfs.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet and flood flow is 19000 cfs.
* Forecast...This river will crest around 18.0 ft around 10 PM Saturday. 
  After the crest, this river is forecast to fall below flood stage 
  Sunday afternoon.
* Impact...Above 18 ft, Expect minor flooding of a small housing 
  development near mile post 8 down stream from Mack Landing. 
  Widespread lowland and pasture land flooding also occurs at this 
  level. Flooding may be exacerbated during high tide.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4470 12394 4490 12401 4489 12391 4472 12386

$$

ORC003-041-210922-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0021.141221T1107Z-141222T1735Z/
/TIDO3.1.ER.141221T1107Z.141222T0000Z.141222T1135Z.NO/
523 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alsea River Near Tidewater.
* from late tonight to Monday morning or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 5 PM Saturday the stage was...14.0 feet / 13100 cfs.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 19500 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage around 3 AM 
  Sunday and is expected to crest near 19.5 ft around 4 PM Sunday.
* Impact...Above 18 ft, Expect minor flooding of low-lying pasture 
  land, roads, and a few structures close to the river.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4437 12382 4440 12402 4444 12402 4441 12382

$$

ORC039-210922-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0022.141221T0216Z-141222T1929Z/
/MPLO3.1.ER.141221T0216Z.141221T1800Z.141222T1329Z.NO/
523 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Siuslaw River near Mapleton.
* until Monday morning or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 5 PM Saturday the stage was...17.5 feet / 21300 cfs.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 22400 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage around 6 PM 
  Saturday and is expected to crest near 21.4 ft around 10 AM Sunday.
* Impact...Above 20.O feet, Expect water over East Mapleton Road. 
  Flooding of some low-lying homes and structures begins. Flooding 
  may be exacerbated by high tide.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4397 12402 4400 12404 4408 12387 4406 12380 4401 12384

$$

495 
WGUS86 KPQR 210600
FLSPQR
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014
 
NW Oregon/SW Washington Coastal Rivers Bulletin 


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oregon...

  Trask River near Tillamook affecting Tillamook County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...

  Nehalem River near Foss affecting Clatsop and Tillamook Counties
  Wilson River near Tillamook affecting Tillamook County
  Siletz River at Siletz affecting Lincoln County
  Alsea River Near Tidewater affecting Benton and Lincoln Counties
  Siuslaw River near Mapleton affecting Lane County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...
  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County

River forecasts are based on observed and forecast rainfall and
temperatures, and they include current and planned reservoir 
releases.

For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit 
weather.gov/portland.

The next update for these locations will be issued by 8:00 am Sunday.

WAC069-211600-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-141222T0849Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.141221T0305Z.141221T1200Z.141222T0249Z.UU/
1000 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Grays River near Rosburg.
* At 8 PM Saturday the stage was...12.5 feet / 9300 cfs.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet and flood flow is 8300 cfs.
* Forecast...This river will crest near 13.1 ft around 4 AM Sunday. 
  After the crest, this river is forecast to fall below flood stage 
  Sunday evening.
* Impact...Above 12.0 feet, expect some flooding of roads along and 
  near the Grays River, including roadway approaches to the Altoona 
  Bridge over the Grays, and portions of Covered Bridge Road, 
  Barr-Durrah Road, and Loop Road near Rosburg and Hwy 4.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4630 12368 4631 12370 4636 12361 4637 12355 4635 12356

$$

ORC007-057-211600-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0017.141221T1156Z-141222T0818Z/
/FSSO3.1.ER.141221T1156Z.141221T1800Z.141222T0218Z.NO/
1000 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Nehalem River near Foss.
* from late tonight to late Sunday night or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 9 PM Saturday the stage was...12.7 feet / 19000 cfs.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet and flood flow is 25900 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage around 4 AM 
  Sunday and is expected to crest near 15.9 ft around 10 AM Sunday.
* Impact...Above 15 ft, expect minor flooding of low lying farm land 
  and structures.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4568 12389 4573 12391 4574 12387 4573 12376 4570 12375

$$

ORC057-211559-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-141222T0421Z/
/TLMO3.1.ER.141221T0220Z.141221T1200Z.141221T2221Z.UU/
1000 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wilson River near Tillamook.
* At 8 PM Saturday the stage was...12.8 feet / 17600 cfs.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet and flood flow is 16200 cfs.
* Forecast...This river will crest near 13.6 ft around 4 AM Sunday. 
  After the crest, this river is forecast to fall below flood stage 
  Sunday afternoon.
* Impact...Above 12 ft, minor flooding of low lying dairy and pasture 
  land north and east of Tillamook can be expected, particularly 
  during high tides.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4546 12385 4549 12385 4548 12373 4547 12372 4546 12375

$$

ORC057-210630-
/O.CAN.KPQR.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-141222T0009Z/
/TRAO3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1000 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Trask River near Tillamook.
* At 9 PM Saturday the stage was...10.6 feet / 3200 cfs.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet and flood flow is 12100 cfs.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise later, reaching levels around 16.0 
  ft by 4 AM Sunday. At this time, any rise is expected to remain 
  below flood stage.
* Impact...Above 16.5 ft, expect some minor flooding along the lower 
  Trask River. Dairy farms, buildings, and a few residences adjacent 
  to the Trask in the vicinity of Hwy 101 may be threatened.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4543 12372 4542 12381 4545 12388 4546 12388 4544 12371

$$

ORC041-211559-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-141222T0738Z/
/SILO3.1.ER.141221T0014Z.141221T1200Z.141222T0138Z.NO/
1000 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Siletz River at Siletz.
* At 9 PM Saturday the stage was...19.4 feet / 25900 cfs.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet and flood flow is 19000 cfs.
* Forecast...This river is expected to crest near 20.0 ft early Sunday 
  morning. This river is expected to fall below flood stage Sunday evening
  and continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 18 ft, expect minor flooding of a small housing 
  development near mile post 8 down stream from Mack Landing. 
  Widespread lowland and pasture land flooding also occurs at this 
  level. Flooding may be exacerbated during high tide.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4470 12394 4490 12401 4489 12391 4472 12386

$$

ORC003-041-211559-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0021.141221T0843Z-141222T0952Z/
/TIDO3.1.ER.141221T0843Z.141221T1800Z.141222T0352Z.NO/
1000 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alsea River Near Tidewater.
* from late tonight to late Sunday night or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 9 PM Saturday the stage was...17.2 feet / 18700 cfs.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 19500 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise above flood stage around 1 AM 
  Sunday and is expected to crest near 19.2 ft around 10 AM Sunday.
* Impact...Above 18 ft, expect minor flooding of low-lying pasture 
  land, roads, and a few structures close to the river.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4437 12382 4440 12402 4444 12402 4441 12382

$$

ORC039-211559-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-141222T0552Z/
/MPLO3.1.ER.141221T0123Z.141221T1200Z.141221T2352Z.NO/
1000 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Siuslaw River near Mapleton.
* At 9 PM Saturday the stage was...21.0 feet / 29000 cfs.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 22400 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested near 21.0 ft at 12/20 21:00. This river
  is expected to fall below flood stage Sunday evening and continue 
  falling for the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 20 feet, expect water over East Mapleton Road. 
  Flooding of some low-lying homes and structures begins. Flooding 
  may be exacerbated by high tide.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4397 12402 4400 12404 4408 12387 4406 12380 4401 12384

$$

477 
WGUS86 KPQR 210912
FLSPQR
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
112 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014
 
NW Oregon/SW Washington Coastal Rivers Bulletin 


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...Oregon...

  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County
  Nehalem River near Foss affecting Clatsop and Tillamook Counties
  Wilson River near Tillamook affecting Tillamook County
  Alsea River Near Tidewater affecting Benton and Lincoln Counties
  Siletz River at Siletz affecting Lincoln County
  Siuslaw River near Mapleton affecting Lane County

River forecasts are based on observed and forecast rainfall and
temperatures, and they include current and planned reservoir 
releases.

For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit 
weather.gov/portland.

The next update for these locations will be issued by 9 am Sunday.

WAC069-211712-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-141222T0720Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.141221T0305Z.141221T1200Z.141222T0120Z.UU/
112 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Grays River near Rosburg.
* At 11 PM Saturday the stage was...13.4 feet / 11234 cfs.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet and flood flow is 8300 cfs.
* Forecast...This river is expected to crest near 13.7 ft around
  3 am Sunday. After the crest, this river is forecast to fall
  below flood stage around 5 PM Sunday and continue falling for
  the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 14.0 feet, expect widespread lowland flooding and 
  numerous flooded roads near Rosburg and Hwy 4. This includes the 
  roadway approaches to the Altoona Bridge over the Grays River.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4630 12368 4631 12370 4636 12361 4637 12355 4635 12356

$$

ORC007-057-211712-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0017.141221T1749Z-141222T0011Z/
/FSSO3.1.ER.141221T1749Z.141221T1800Z.141221T1811Z.NO/
112 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Nehalem River near Foss.
* from this morning to this afternoon or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 12 AM Sunday the stage was...13.5 feet / 21400 cfs.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet and flood flow is 25900 cfs.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...This river will rise to flood stage around 10 AM 
  Sunay and is expected to crest at 15.0 ft around 10 AM Sunday.
* Impact...Above 15 ft, expect minor flooding of low lying farm land 
  and structures.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4568 12389 4573 12391 4574 12387 4573 12376 4570 12375

$$

ORC057-211711-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-141222T0251Z/
/TLMO3.1.ER.141221T0220Z.141221T0830Z.141221T2051Z.UU/
112 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wilson River near Tillamook.
* At 12 AM Sunday the stage was...14.1 feet / 20004 cfs.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet and flood flow is 16200 cfs.
* Forecast...This river is expected to crest near 14.2 ft around
  3 am Sunday. After the crest, this river is expected to fall
  below flood stage around 1 PM Sunday and continue falling for
  the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 14 ft, widespread lowland and dairy land flooding 
  begins. Sloughs north of the city, mainly Dougherty, begin to 
  overflow. Minor flooding begins in the business district north of 
  Tillamook and along Hwy 101, particularly during high tide.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4546 12385 4549 12385 4548 12373 4547 12372 4546 12375

$$

ORC041-211711-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-141222T0605Z/
/SILO3.2.ER.141221T0014Z.141221T0947Z.141222T0005Z.NO/
112 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Siletz River at Siletz.
* At 12 AM Sunday the stage was...20.3 feet / 29137 cfs.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet and flood flow is 19000 cfs.
* Forecast...This river is expected to crest near 20.5 ft around
  2 am Sunday. After the crest, this river is expected to fall
  below flood stage around 4 PM Sunday and continue falling 
  for the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 20 ft, expect widespread flooding downstream. 
  Increased flooding can be expected in the housing development 
  downstream from Mack Landing. Numerous private roads and a trailor 
  park between mile post 2.5 and mile post 5 near Sunset Landing to 
  Coyote Rock are flooded. Flooding may be exacerbated during high 
  tide.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4470 12394 4490 12401 4489 12391 4472 12386

$$

ORC003-041-211711-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-141222T1435Z/
/TIDO3.1.ER.141221T0621Z.141221T1800Z.141222T0835Z.NO/
112 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alsea River Near Tidewater.
* At 12 AM Sunday the stage was...18.5 feet / 21081 cfs.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 19500 cfs.
* Forecast...This river will crest at 19.6 ft around 10 AM Sunday. 
  After the crest, this river is forecast to fall below flood stage 
  around 1 AM Monday.
* Impact...Above 20 ft, Water begins to surround houses at the 'Little
  Albany' community on Highway 34 near Milepost 8. Widespread pasture
  and dairy land flooding can be expected. Flooding of numerous roads
  along and near the river occurs at this level.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4437 12382 4440 12402 4444 12402 4441 12382

$$

ORC039-211711-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-141222T1906Z/
/MPLO3.2.ER.141221T0123Z.141221T1200Z.141222T1306Z.NO/
112 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Siuslaw River near Mapleton.
* At 12 AM Sunday the stage was...22.4 feet / 32525 cfs.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 22400 cfs.
* Forecast...This river will crest at 22.9 ft around 7 am Sunday.
  After the crest, this river is expected to fall below flood
  stage around 5 AM Monday and continue falling for the next couple
  days.
* Impact...Above 22 ft, expect widespread flooding of low-lying land. 
  Several homes and structures in low areas of Mapleton start to 
  flood. Numerous rural roads along and near the Siuslaw River will 
  likely be flooded, and water begins to cover the lower sections of 
  Hwy 126 at this stage. Flooding may be exacerbated during high 
  tide.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4397 12402 4400 12404 4408 12387 4406 12380 4401 12384

$$

923 
WGUS86 KPQR 211143
FLSPQR
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
343 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014
 
NW Oregon/SW Washington Coastal Rivers Bulletin 



...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oregon...

  Nehalem River near Foss affecting Clatsop and Tillamook Counties

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...

  Siletz River at Siletz affecting Lincoln County
  Alsea River Near Tidewater affecting Benton and Lincoln Counties
  Siuslaw River near Mapleton affecting Lane County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...Oregon...
  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County
  Wilson River near Tillamook affecting Tillamook County

.[optional - insert summary. Leave starting dot -or- delete line.]

River forecasts are based on observed and forecast rainfall and
temperatures, and they include current and planned reservoir 
releases.

For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit 
weather.gov/portland.

The next update for these locations will be issued by ***hour / day 
of next update***.

WAC069-211943-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-141222T0720Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.141221T0305Z.141221T1200Z.141222T0120Z.UU/
343 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Grays River near Rosburg.
* At 2 AM Sunday the stage was...13.5 feet / 11370 cfs.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet and flood flow is 8300 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested at 13.5 ft at 12/21 02:00. this river
  is expected to fall below flood stage around 5 PM Sunday and 
  continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 14.0 feet, expect widespread lowland flooding and 
  numerous flooded roads near Rosburg and Hwy 4. This includes the 
  roadway approaches to the Altoona Bridge over the Grays River.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4630 12368 4631 12370 4636 12361 4637 12355 4635 12356

$$

ORC007-057-211213-
/O.CAN.KPQR.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-141222T0011Z/
/FSSO3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
343 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Nehalem River near Foss.
* At 3 AM Sunday the stage was...13.7 feet / 22023 cfs.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet and flood flow is 25900 cfs.
* No flooding is currently forecast.
* Forecast...This river will continue to fall. Another rise is 
  expected later, reaching levels around 13.7 ft by 10 AM Sunday. At 
  this time, any rise is expected to remain below flood stage.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4568 12389 4573 12391 4574 12387 4573 12376 4570 12375

$$

ORC057-211943-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-141222T0251Z/
/TLMO3.1.ER.141221T0220Z.141221T0830Z.141221T2051Z.UU/
343 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wilson River near Tillamook.
* At 2 AM Sunday the stage was...13.8 feet / 19482 cfs.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet and flood flow is 16200 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested at 14.0 ft at 12/21 01:45. this river
  is expected to fall below flood stage around 1 PM Sunday and 
  continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 14 ft, widespread lowland and dairy land flooding 
  begins. Sloughs north of the city, mainly Dougherty, begin to 
  overflow. Minor flooding begins in the business district north of 
  Tillamook and along Hwy 101, particularly during high tide.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4546 12385 4549 12385 4548 12373 4547 12372 4546 12375

$$

ORC041-211943-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-141222T0645Z/
/SILO3.2.ER.141221T0014Z.141221T0830Z.141222T0045Z.NO/
343 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Siletz River at Siletz.
* At 3 AM Sunday the stage was...20.1 feet / 28756 cfs.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet and flood flow is 19000 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested at 20.3 ft at 12/21 00:30. this river
  is expected to fall below flood stage around 5 PM Sunday and 
  continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 20 ft, expect widespread flooding downstream. 
  Increased flooding can be expected in the housing development 
  downstream from Mack Landing. Numerous private roads and a trailor 
  park between mile post 2.5 and mile post 5 near Sunset Landing to 
  Coyote Rock are flooded. Flooding may be exacerbated during high 
  tide.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4470 12394 4490 12401 4489 12391 4472 12386

$$

ORC003-041-211943-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-141222T0620Z/
/TIDO3.1.ER.141221T0621Z.141221T1030Z.141222T0020Z.NO/
343 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alsea River Near Tidewater.
* At 3 AM Sunday the stage was...18.9 feet / 21810 cfs.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 19500 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested at 18.9 ft at 12/21 02:30. this river
  is expected to fall below flood stage around 4 PM Sunday and 
  continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 20 ft, Water begins to surround houses at the 'Little
  Albany' community on Highway 34 near Milepost 8. Widespread pasture
  and dairy land flooding can be expected. Flooding of numerous roads
  along and near the river occurs at this level.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4437 12382 4440 12402 4444 12402 4441 12382

$$

ORC039-211943-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-141222T1750Z/
/MPLO3.2.ER.141221T0123Z.141221T1100Z.141222T1150Z.NO/
343 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Siuslaw River near Mapleton.
* At 3 AM Sunday the stage was...22.8 feet / 33593 cfs.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 22400 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested at 22.8 ft at 12/21 03:00. this river
  is expected to fall below flood stage around 4 AM Monday and 
  continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 22 ft, expect widespread flooding of low-lying land. 
  Several homes and structures in low areas of Mapleton start to 
  flood. Numerous rural roads along and near the Siuslaw River will 
  likely be flooded, and water begins to cover the lower sections of 
  Hwy 126 at this stage. Flooding may be exacerbated during high 
  tide.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4397 12402 4400 12404 4408 12387 4406 12380 4401 12384

$$

309 
WGUS86 KPQR 211149
FLSPQR
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
349 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014
 
NW Oregon/SW Washington Coastal Rivers Bulletin 


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...Oregon...
  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County
  Wilson River near Tillamook affecting Tillamook County
  Siletz River at Siletz affecting Lincoln County
  Alsea River Near Tidewater affecting Benton and Lincoln Counties
  Siuslaw River near Mapleton affecting Lane County

River forecasts are based on observed and forecast rainfall and
temperatures, and they include current and planned reservoir 
releases.

For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit 
weather.gov/portland.

The next update for these locations will be issued by 10 am Sunday.

WAC069-211949-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-141222T0720Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.141221T0305Z.141221T1200Z.141222T0120Z.UU/
349 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Grays River near Rosburg.
* At 2 AM Sunday the stage was...13.5 feet / 11370 cfs.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet and flood flow is 8300 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested at 13.5 ft at 2 am Sunday. This river
  is expected to fall below flood stage around 5 PM Sunday and 
  continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 14.0 feet, expect widespread lowland flooding and 
  numerous flooded roads near Rosburg and Hwy 4. This includes the 
  roadway approaches to the Altoona Bridge over the Grays River.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4630 12368 4631 12370 4636 12361 4637 12355 4635 12356

$$

ORC057-211949-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-141222T0251Z/
/TLMO3.1.ER.141221T0220Z.141221T0830Z.141221T2051Z.UU/
349 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wilson River near Tillamook.
* At 3 AM Sunday the stage was...13.7 feet / 19282 cfs.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet and flood flow is 16200 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested at 13.8 ft at 3 am Sunday. This river
  is expected to fall below flood stage around 1 PM Sunday and 
  continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 14 ft, widespread lowland and dairy land flooding 
  begins. Sloughs north of the city, mainly Dougherty, begin to 
  overflow. Minor flooding begins in the business district north of 
  Tillamook and along Hwy 101, particularly during high tide.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4546 12385 4549 12385 4548 12373 4547 12372 4546 12375

$$

ORC041-211948-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-141222T0645Z/
/SILO3.2.ER.141221T0014Z.141221T0830Z.141222T0045Z.NO/
349 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Siletz River at Siletz.
* At 3 AM Sunday the stage was...20.0 feet / 28250 cfs.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet and flood flow is 19000 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested at 20.3 ft at 1230 am Sunday. This
  river is expected to fall below flood stage around 5 PM Sunday and 
  continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 20 ft, expect widespread flooding downstream. 
  Increased flooding can be expected in the housing development 
  downstream from Mack Landing. Numerous private roads and a trailor 
  park between mile post 2.5 and mile post 5 near Sunset Landing to 
  Coyote Rock are flooded. Flooding may be exacerbated during high 
  tide.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4470 12394 4490 12401 4489 12391 4472 12386

$$

ORC003-041-211948-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-141222T0620Z/
/TIDO3.1.ER.141221T0621Z.141221T1030Z.141222T0020Z.NO/
349 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alsea River Near Tidewater.
* At 3 AM Sunday the stage was...18.9 feet / 21810 cfs.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 19500 cfs.
* Forecast...This river was near a crest at 18.9 ft at 3 am Sunday.
  This river is expected to fall below flood stage around 4 PM Sunday and 
  continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 18 ft, expect minor flooding of low-lying pasture 
  land, roads, and a few structures close to the river.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4437 12382 4440 12402 4444 12402 4441 12382

$$

ORC039-211948-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-141222T1750Z/
/MPLO3.2.ER.141221T0123Z.141221T1100Z.141222T1150Z.NO/
349 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Siuslaw River near Mapleton.
* At 3 AM Sunday the stage was...22.8 feet / 33593 cfs.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 22400 cfs.
* Forecast...This river was near a crest at 22.8 ft at 3 am Sunday.
  This river is expected to fall below flood stage around 4 AM Monday
  and continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 22 ft, expect widespread flooding of low-lying land. 
  Several homes and structures in low areas of Mapleton start to 
  flood. Numerous rural roads along and near the Siuslaw River will 
  likely be flooded, and water begins to cover the lower sections of 
  Hwy 126 at this stage. Flooding may be exacerbated during high 
  tide.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4397 12402 4400 12404 4408 12387 4406 12380 4401 12384

$$

728 
WGUS86 KPQR 211749
FLSPQR
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
949 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014
 
NW Oregon/SW Washington Coastal Rivers Bulletin 

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...

  Wilson River near Tillamook affecting Tillamook County
  Siletz River at Siletz affecting Lincoln County
  Alsea River Near Tidewater affecting Benton and Lincoln Counties
  Siuslaw River near Mapleton affecting Lane County

River forecasts are based on observed and forecast rainfall and
temperatures, and they include current and planned reservoir 
releases.

For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit 
weather.gov/portland.

The next update for these locations will be issued by 2 pm today.

WAC069-211819-
/O.CAN.KPQR.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-141222T0720Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.141221T0305Z.141221T0845Z.141221T1613Z.UU/
949 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Grays River near Rosburg.
* At 930 AM Sunday the stage was...11.9 feet / 8155 cfs.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet and flood flow is 8300 cfs.
* No additional flooding is currently forecast.
* Forecast...This river is expected to continue falling.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4630 12368 4631 12370 4636 12361 4637 12355 4635 12356

$$

ORC057-220007-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-141222T0007Z/
/TLMO3.1.ER.141221T0220Z.141221T0830Z.141221T1807Z.UU/
949 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wilson River near Tillamook.
* At 9 AM Sunday the stage was...12.1 feet / 16325 cfs.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet and flood flow is 16200 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested at 13.3 ft at 12/21 05:30 am. This river
  is expected to fall below flood stage around 11 AM Sunday and 
  continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 12 ft, minor flooding of low lying dairy and pasture 
  land north and east of Tillamook can be expected, particularly 
  during high tides.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4546 12385 4549 12385 4548 12373 4547 12372 4546 12375

$$

ORC041-220149-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-141222T0306Z/
/SILO3.2.ER.141221T0014Z.141221T0830Z.141221T2106Z.NO/
949 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Siletz River at Siletz.
* At 9 AM Sunday the stage was...18.3 feet / 24115 cfs.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet and flood flow is 19000 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested at 20.3 ft at 12/21 00:30 am. This river
  is expected to fall below flood stage around 4 PM Sunday and 
  continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 18 ft, expect minor flooding of a small housing 
  development near mile post 8 down stream from Mack Landing. 
  Widespread lowland and pasture land flooding also occurs at this 
  level. Flooding may be exacerbated during high tide.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4470 12394 4490 12401 4489 12391 4472 12386

$$

ORC003-041-220149-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-141222T0235Z/
/TIDO3.1.ER.141221T0621Z.141221T1030Z.141221T2035Z.NO/
949 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alsea River Near Tidewater.
* At 9 AM Sunday the stage was...18.3 feet / 20945 cfs.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 19500 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested at 18.9 ft at 12/21 03:00 am. This river
  is expected to fall below flood stage around 1 PM Sunday and 
  continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 18 ft, expect minor flooding of low-lying pasture 
  land, roads, and a few structures close to the river.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4437 12382 4440 12402 4444 12402 4441 12382

$$

ORC039-220149-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-141222T1539Z/
/MPLO3.2.ER.141221T0123Z.141221T1800Z.141222T0939Z.NO/
949 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Siuslaw River near Mapleton.
* At 9 AM Sunday the stage was...22.6 feet / 33140 cfs.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 22400 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested at 22.7 ft at 12/21 08:45 am. This river
  is expected to fall below flood stage around 2 AM Monday and 
  continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 22 ft, expect widespread flooding of low-lying land. 
  Several homes and structures in low areas of Mapleton start to 
  flood. Numerous rural roads along and near the Siuslaw River will 
  likely be flooded, and water begins to cover the lower sections of 
  Hwy 126 at this stage. Flooding may be exacerbated during high 
  tide.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4397 12402 4400 12404 4408 12387 4406 12380 4401 12384

$$

037 
WGUS86 KPQR 212026
FLSPQR
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1226 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014
 
NW Oregon/SW Washington Coastal Rivers Bulletin 

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oregon...

  Wilson River near Tillamook affecting Tillamook County
  Alsea River near Tidewater affecting Benton and Lincoln Counties

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...

  Siletz River at Siletz affecting Lincoln County
  Siuslaw River near Mapleton affecting Lane County

River forecasts are based on observed and forecast rainfall and
temperatures, and they include current and planned reservoir 
releases.

For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit 
weather.gov/portland.

The next update for these locations will be issued by 8 pm Sunday.

ORC057-212056-
/O.CAN.KPQR.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-141222T0007Z/
/TLMO3.1.ER.141221T0220Z.141221T0830Z.141221T1830Z.UU/
1226 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Wilson River near Tillamook.
* At 11 AM Sunday the stage was...11.7 feet / 15330 cfs.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet and flood flow is 16200 cfs.
* No additional flooding is currently forecast.
* Forecast...This river is expected to continue falling.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4546 12385 4549 12385 4548 12373 4547 12372 4546 12375

$$

ORC041-220415-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-141222T0415Z/
/SILO3.2.ER.141221T0014Z.141221T0830Z.141221T2215Z.NO/
1226 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Siletz River at Siletz.
* At 11 AM Sunday the stage was...17.5 feet / 22330 cfs.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet and flood flow is 19000 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested at 20.3 ft at 12/21 00:30 am. This river
  is expected to fall below flood stage around 4 PM Sunday and 
  continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 18 ft, expect minor flooding of a small housing 
  development near mile post 8 down stream from Mack Landing. 
  Widespread lowland and pasture land flooding also occurs at this 
  level. Flooding may be exacerbated during high tide.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4470 12394 4490 12401 4489 12391 4472 12386

$$

ORC003-041-212056-
/O.CAN.KPQR.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-141222T0235Z/
/TIDO3.1.ER.141221T0621Z.141221T1030Z.141221T1903Z.NO/
1226 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Alsea River near Tidewater.
* At 12 PM Sunday the stage was...17.9 feet / 19840 cfs.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 20100 cfs.
* No additional flooding is currently forecast.
* Forecast...This river is expected to continue falling.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4437 12382 4440 12402 4444 12402 4441 12382

$$

ORC039-220426-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-141222T1539Z/
/MPLO3.2.ER.141221T0123Z.141221T1145Z.141222T0939Z.NO/
1226 PM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Siuslaw River near Mapleton.
* At 12 PM Sunday the stage was...22.0 feet / 31530 cfs.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet and flood flow is 22400 cfs.
* Forecast...This river crested at 22.5 ft at 12/21 10:00 am. This river
  is expected to fall below flood stage around 2 AM Monday and 
  continue falling for the next couple days.
* Impact...Above 22 ft, expect widespread flooding of low-lying land. 
  Several homes and structures in low areas of Mapleton start to 
  flood. Numerous rural roads along and near the Siuslaw River will 
  likely be flooded, and water begins to cover the lower sections of 
  Hwy 126 at this stage. Flooding may be exacerbated during high 
  tide.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4397 12402 4400 12404 4408 12387 4406 12380 4401 12384

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1004 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND VERY WET WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
OR PLUME OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ALL AREAS WILL SEE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINS. THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD EASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING A
COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH SNOW DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE.
&&

.MORNING UPDATE...RAINFALL RATES HAVE PICKED UP SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT STREAMS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE ONSHORE. AMSU DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A PLUME
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.25+ INCHES FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM. SO
FAR THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN ALONG THE OREGON COAST AND COAST
RANGE...WHERE IN GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO
FAR. THERE IS A POCKET OF EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE
WILSON AND NESTUCCA RIVER BASINS EAST OF TILLAMOOK. DID NOT MAKE TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE PREDICTED RAINFALL TOTALS THIS MORNING AS THINGS
GENERALLY SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. THE MAIN FCST UPDATE WAS TO DECREASE
THE QPF FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TONIGHT AND SUN. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL LOSE SOME OF THE FORCING
WE ARE CURRENTLY RECEIVING FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE WARM FRONT.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. WITH THE
850 MB WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 TO 50 KT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SUN...THERE WILL BE VERY STRONG LIFT ALONG
THE COAST RANGE AND DOWNWARD MOTION ON THE LEE SIDE...WHICH SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHADOW EFFECT. THE LATEST TOTAL QPF
FOR THE VALLEY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE VALLEY CLOSER TO THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

WILL HANG ON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR OVER THE CASCADES
HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO LEAVE...AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING AS LOW AS 4000 TO 4500 FT ACCORDING TO SEVERAL OF THE
S WA CASCADE SNOTELS. WITH RADAR SHOWING FAIRLY HEAVY PRECIP NOW OVER
THE CASCADES...LOCATIONS THE HIGHER CASCADE PASSES MAY PICK UP
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING SOONER RATHER THAN
LATER...WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING WELL ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT. PYLE

ALSO...INDIVIDUALS PLANNING TO BE ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST. THE LARGE...LONG
PERIOD SEAS WILL BRING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO THE SURF ZONE. ANYONE
ON BEACHES SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND REMAIN ALERT AS LARGE
WAVES MAY WASH ASHORE WITH LITTLE WARNING. LARGE WAVES MAY ALSO
CRASH OVER JETTIES AND SWEEP AWAY UNSUSPECTING BEACHGOERS AND STORM
WATCHERS. CULLEN

.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 258 AM SAT DEC 20...

.SHORT TERM...OUR WELL ADVERTISED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT HAS BEGUN
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OVERRUNNING RAIN
HAVING SPREAD ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG WARM
FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF WARM FRONTAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH
TODAY THAT WILL KEEP TODAY VERY WET...WITH A DECENT SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH MID DAY THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME RATHER
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WE MAY GET CLOSE TO HIGH WIND VALUES AT
THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS...BUT WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
OF JUST BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

THE MAIN STORY THOUGH WILL BE THE RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATER TODAY...SEVERAL MORE SURGES OF RAIN FOLLOW TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN THE CONTINUED STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LOWER LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AS WELL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND WE MAY
START TO SEE A BIT OF RAIN SHADOWING TO THE LEE OF THE COAST RANGE.
BUT THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUED TO HIT HARD BY THE
RAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.

AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD AS WE SHOULD START
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MANY AREA RIVERS BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN MY MIND RIGHT NOW IS IF THERE WILL BE ANY LET
UP OR BREAKS IN THE HEAVY RAIN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATER TODAY AND BETWEEN ANY OF THE MOISTURE SURGES COMING IN TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY CONTROL HOW MANY RIVERS FLOOD AND
HOW HIGH THEY GET. NEVERTHELESS...THE HYDRO SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE UPDATED THIS MORNING AS IT STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW STARTS TO BUCKLE LATE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE STARTS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WHICH CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT IN OUR AREA IS THAT
IT WILL THE PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE COMING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DECREASE AS THE ONSHORE FLOW ABATES...THOUGH IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY RIVERS THAT FLOOD TO REACT AND RECEDE.

WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR SNOW THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WARM FRONT. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD RISE AND THE SNOW TURN TO MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OREGON CASCADES WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING AS WELL.
TOLLESON
&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS DIRTY
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STARTS TO SHIFT INLAND. THIS MARKS THE NEXT
BEST SHOT FOR THE CASCADES TO FINALLY SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 2000 TO 2500 FT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADED OVER THE CASCADE PASSES WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. COLDER NORTH FLOW WILL FOLLOW
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL WELL BELOW NORMAL AS CONDITIONS DRY
OUT NEXT FRIDAY. /27
&&

.HYDROLOGY...A CLASSIC ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS
UNDERWAY OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY. A VERY LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE WITH
ORIGINS WEST TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IS FEEDING INTO THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEP AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE FLOW FORECASTED TO
REMAIN PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...EXPECT STRONG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO
LEAD TO THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COAST
RANGE...FOOTHILLS AND CASCADES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IN THE RANGE OF
6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
LOWER BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT TOTALS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER
TERRAIN. PROJECTED RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST IS FORECASTED TO BE
AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

GIVEN THE LATEST FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS...IT APPEARS THAT
THERE IS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND ON
NUMEROUS RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES DRAINING THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES. A FEW RIVERS MAY EVEN REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. THE
CURRENT RIVER STAGE FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE FASTER RESPONDING
RIVERS COULD REACH FLOOD STAGE AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THERE ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTS FROM URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING PASTURE LAND.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME TIDALLY INFLUENCE FLOODING CONCERNS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TIDE THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR TOKE POINT WILL LIKELY TOUCH JUST ABOVE 11 FT DUE TO A
TIDAL ANOMALY AROUND 1.5 FT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SOME
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW ISSUES FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
HOWEVER...CONCERN REMAINS GREATER FOR HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR BOTH THE OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTS GIVEN THAT ABUNDANT
RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY PUSH FLOWS ON COASTAL RIVERS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. SEVERAL COASTAL RIVERS WILL BE APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...SO SUSPECT THAT TIDAL
OVERFLOW CONCERNS MAY ENCOMPASS MANY COASTAL SPOTS. RIVERS LIKELY
REMAIN HIGH INTO MONDAY...SO THERE MAY BE IMPACTS AGAIN DURING HIGH
TIDES. ANY TIDAL OVERFLOW ISSUES THAT MATERIALIZE WILL LIKELY BE MOST
PREVALENT BETWEEN 9 AM AND 3 PM ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING CONCERNS...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE LANDSLIDES...DEBRIS FLOWS...AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
IN THE VICINITY OF RECENT WILDFIRE BURN SCARS. BURN SCARS FROM TWO
LARGE FIRES THIS SUMMER...THE 36 PIT FIRE IN THE CLACKAMAS RIVER
BASIN NEAR ESTACADA AND THE DECEPTION COMPLEX NEAR OAKRIDGE...WILL
BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECASTS. RIVER FORECASTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PQR (ALL LOWER CASE).
PYLE/CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND IFR/MVFR AT THE COAST. TREND OF
INCREASINGLY MVFR OVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED RAIN...WITH POCKETS OF
IFR LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE. EXPECT HIGHER
TERRAIN TO BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY
S WINDS ALONG THE COAST TO 35-45 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN
EASING TONIGHT.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL THIS EVENING...LIKELY
REMAINING NEAR 2000 FT. VIS WILL ALSO BECOME RESTRICTED...DOWN TO
3-4 SM BY 19Z THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
WITH HEAVIER RAIN CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
WITH INCREASING W-SW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LLWS 21Z-03Z THIS EVENING. CULLEN

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY GALES ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER BURST OF STRONGER GALE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED LOW END STORM FORCE GUSTS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE COAST...BUT THINK THESE WILL BE LOCAL AND INFREQUENT AT MOST.
WINDS WILL EASE GRADUALLY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SOLID SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL WINDS OVER THE WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO
EASE THROUGH DAY SUN...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS FOR LATE
SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...TRENDING TO W OR NW.

SEAS REMAIN AROUND 19 TO 21 FT OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD STAY IN THE RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...PERHAPS RUNNING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE FAR OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 15 FT BY EARLY SUNDAY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. CULLEN

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWEST OREGON.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PST SUNDAY.

&&

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.