High Wind Warning 6, NWS Portland, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1011 AM PST MON FEB 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE NEXT IN A CONTINUING SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND...RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY. A MUCH
COOLER AND SHOWERY PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN PERSISTS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THINGS SETTLE DOWN TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT THE NEXT INSTALLMENT OF THE CURRENT PARADE OF STORMS IS
SCHEDULED FOR TUESDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA
INDICATE THE LATEST COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS OF
1630Z. HRLY RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE AND
SW WA WILLAPA HILLS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO AROUND ONE-TENTH TO
ONE-QUARTER INCH PER HOUR. THE S WA CASCADES HAVE BEEN GETTING
POUNDED BY PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. THE SURPRISES LAKE
SNOTEL...AT AROUND 4250 FT...HAS RECEIVED 1.30 INCHES OF SNOW WATER
EQUIVILANT SINCE MIDNIGHT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST 10-15 INCHES
OF SNOW. THUS...THE WINTER STORM WARNING THERE LOOKS TO BE VERIFYING
NICELY.

THE WIND HAS SETTLED DOWN QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND ALL
WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS CURRENT SYSTEM ARE FINISHED. ATTENTION NOW
TURNS TO THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUE
MORNING. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS 925 MB WIND CLOSE TO 50 KT ALONG THE
OREGON COAST  AT 15Z...BUT RAMPS UP TO 70-75 KT AT 18Z. THE NAM DID
QUITE WELL DEPICTING THE CORE OF 40-45 KT WIND IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY WITH THIS PAST SYSTEM. IT SHOWS ANOTHER RIBBON OF 45-50 KT 925
MB WIND SPEEDS TUE MORNING. THE 4KM WRF-GFS IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST
WITH THE WIND SPEEDS...MAINTAINING 35-40 KT 10M WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE
COAST. WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT UP ANOTHER HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES 16Z TUE THROUGH 01Z WED. WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERING A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY FOR TUE BUT WILL WAIT FOR ALL
12Z GUIDANCE TO MAKE THE CALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KSLE AND KPDX
INDICATE 50-55 KT AROUND 2500 FEET MLS 18Z TUE. MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND
MIXING GIVE A PRETY DECENT CHANCE OF 40-50 MPH INTO THE VALLEY LATE
TUE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS THE FRONT REACHING
THE COAST AROUND 18Z THEN MOVING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY 21Z.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER AND A FAST-MOVER. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW CASCADE SNOW LEVELS TO CREEP
UP TO NEAR PASS-LEVEL BY TUE MORNING.

OROGRAPHICS FOR THIS SYSTEM INITIALLY FAVOR THE S WA CASCADES...BUT
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER HEALTHY DOSE OF SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE CASCADE
RANGE. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ALREADY UP FOR THE S WA CASCADES
STARTING 12Z TUE. WILL WAIT TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING UNTIL THE CURRENT
WARNING IS FINISHED OR ENDED EARLIER THAN THE 00Z TUE EXPIRATION. THE
QPF AND THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION WOULD SUGGEST A HIGH END ADVISORY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CASCADES.

SHOWERS PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER AND
DRAGS COLDER AIR BACK OVER AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FEET. SHOWERS CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A NW SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND THEN MAYBE SOME
EASING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR

.HYDROLOGY...DESPITE THE RECENT LOWLAND SNOW AND HEAVY RAIN
EPISODES...THE RIVER SITUATION IS NOT TOO BAD. CURRENTLY THE GRAYS
RIVER IN SW WA...AND THE PUDDING AND NEHALEM RIVERS IN NW OREGON ARE
IN MINOR FLOOD STATUS. THE GRAYS RIVER HAS CRESTED AND SHOULD FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CHECK THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVERS TO REACH FLOOD STAGE WITH THE TUE SYSTEM. WEISHAAR

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DRIER PATTERN BEGINS
NEXT WEEKEND AFTER A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BB

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS
SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE
SHOWERY. STEADY RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE
MVFR TO VFR. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON THE COAST TONIGHT.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WITH THE NEXT FRONT LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HARTLEY

KPDX AND APPROACHES...FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO PASS THROUGH THE
AIRPORT. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO BECOME WEST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. MOSTLY VFR WITH SHOWERS REST OF TODAY. NEXT FRONT WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TUE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HARTLEY

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BEHIND THE FRONT...AND HAVE DROPPED
THE GALE WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED AT BUOY #50 SO
STILL HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN
INNER WATERS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS ARE STILL HIGH...AROUND 18 FEET SO HAVE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF GALES TO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL BARRIER JET BRINGING
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE SEAS WILL STAY BELOW
20 FEET...BUT WILL TAKE A MUCH CLOSER LOOK AT WINDS AND SEAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. HARTLEY

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-GREATER
     PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON CASCADES.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GREATER VANCOUVER
     AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM
     PST TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.