Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1247 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EAST IDAHO AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALONG COAST WITH CUT OFF LOW OFF CALIFORNIA
COAST COMBINING WITH SLOWLY PROGRESSING STRONG SORTWAVE IN
WASHINGTON STATE. MONSOON SURGE EXTENDS NORTH INTO EASTERN IDAHO
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING NORTHEAST THROUGH GREAT BASIN. RADAR
SHOWING LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS EASTERN PORTIONS BUT BELIEVE LITTLE
IS REACHING THE GROUND. CLOUD COVER KEEPING MUCH OF THIS REGION
CAPPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS FURTHER
NORTH IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS INCLUDING RAP/HRRR CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
CONTINUING NORTH INTO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT MIGHT BE OVERDONE
WITH THUNDER UNDER CURRENT CLOUD COVER. GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE
EJECTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CORNER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAVE MUCH OF
REGION IN WEAK UNSETTLED RIDGE OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
INTO IDAHO THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. UPPER TROUGH BECOMES VERY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TITLED
INTO THURSDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IDAHO. BOTH
GFS AND NAM SHOWING STRONG INDICATION THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO KEEP REGION DRY. LATEST WRINKLE
IN THE FORECAST HEADED INTO FRIDAY IS A RETURN TO THE SOLUTION OF
DEEP CUT OFF LOW OVER PACNW. NAM AND GFS DIFFER IN POSITION OF
CENTER OF LOW. NAM FURTHER NORTH AND MORE OPEN THAN
GFS...RESULTING IN MORE PRECIP ACROSS EAST IDAHO THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. DMH

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MADE NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT FORECAST. ECMWF AND GFS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
RUN...BOTH SUPPORTING SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW FROM PACNW
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH IDAHO INTO OPEN TROUGH IN NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
SUNDAY. CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH DAY OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW
FLATTENS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN DIVIDE. TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE MONDAY...SHIFTING
INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY. CURRENT GRIDS MAINTAIN POPS NEAR
CLIMO AND WILL LEAVE FOR NOW. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW AND
BEYOND. WE WILL CARRY AT THE VERY LEAST VCTS AND VCSH IN THE TAFS.
GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 KTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY.  KEYES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY ACROSS
MOST OF EASTERN IDAHO. THE BEST PERIODS FOR ANY RAINFALL OVER 0.10
INCHES WILL BE THROUGH TOMORROW AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY ALSO NOW
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. GUSTY WINDS
OVER 35MPH AT TIMES ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. WE
WILL SEE INCREASING SURFACE WINDS BUT HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD NEGATE
ANY CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. THE MODELS ARE NOW NOT
TRYING TO DRY OUT THE SOUTHERN FIRE DISTRICTS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
BACK TO WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE STORM SAGGING
INTO THE NORTHERN STATES. WE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF SOME
DRYING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLAND.  KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
147 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

IDZ018-031-032-192030-
BLAINE ID-CUSTER ID-
147 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CUSTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL IDAHO
  NORTHWESTERN BLAINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL IDAHO

UNTIL 230 PM MDT

AT 144 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
MULTIPLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADVISORY AREA...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  STANLEY...
  CLAYTON...
  CHALLIS...
  GALENA SUMMIT...
  REDFISH AND ALTURAS LAKES...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4478 11510 4473 11495 4481 11481 4466 11473
      4458 11456 4483 11428 4475 11420 4474 11406
      4449 11380 4443 11352 4446 11345 4432 11334
      4356 11462 4360 11469 4380 11471 4385 11499
      4415 11503 4433 11530 4449 11524 4458 11531
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 258DEG 22KT 4367 11456

JKEYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
204 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

IDZ019-020-023-192100-
CARIBOU ID-TETON ID-BINGHAM ID-BONNEVILLE ID-MADISON ID-
204 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  BONNEVILLE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  EAST CENTRAL BINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  SOUTHERN TETON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  NORTHERN CARIBOU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO

UNTIL 300 PM MDT

AT 200 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS NEAR SWAN VALLEY...PALISADES RESERVOIR TO
NEAR FREEDOM WYOMING ...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.  ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 4385 11106 4268 11105 4273 11191 4346 11186
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 274DEG 8KT 4339 11155

PRESTON