Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OFF THE NW BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST AND A HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION WITH
SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATING NORTH ACROSS THE ERN GREAT
BASIN. UPON CLOSER INSPECTION...TWO VORT-FEATURES WERE NOTED IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE GREAT BASIN...ONE LIFTING ENE OUT OF THE
WINNEMUCCA AREA AND A SECOND PROGRESSING ENE ACROSS CNTRL UTAH. THE
MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS SE IDAHO
THIS AFTERNOON/EVE AS THE VORT-FEATURE LIFTING OUT OF NEVADA
TRAVERSES THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATELY DRY LOWER
LEVELS WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45-50 MPH
FROM ANY WELL DEVELOPED CELLS. THE NAM IS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
TSTM ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS THE SRN HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT...AND
PER THE WRF...MAYBE EVEN SNEAKING OUT INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY AT SOME
POINT. FOR FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGATHERS
ITSELF WHILE A SECOND PACIFIC LOW ROTATES TOWARD THE BC COAST. WEAK
INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAIN OVER SE IDAHO TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS
FIRM NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND THEN EXPANDS WEST AND
NORTH SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LIMITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION AND PROMOTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE SECOND PAC LOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO
WRN CANADA NUDGING THE RIDGE EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND OPENING THE DOOR
FOR A SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF
THIS SURGE IS A LITTLE DUBIOUS AT THIS POINT BUT WILL ADJUST TO THE
MODELS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MINIMAL THROUGH 1 PM BUT KEPT IN VICINITY
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z AS THINK COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS BUT GUSTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. GK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WAVE SLIDES
THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM THE STORMS. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS TO RETURN FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE FAR EAST. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY IN THE
SHORT TERM WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE EXPECTED. GK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
222 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014

IDZ019-032-032115-
CLARK ID-BUTTE ID-CUSTER ID-
222 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EXTREME EAST CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL IDAHO
  NORTH CENTRAL BUTTE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IDAHO
  SOUTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY IN EASTERN IDAHO

UNTIL 315 PM MDT

AT 218 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST OF MACKAY AND NORTH OF
HOWE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
BRIEF MODERATE RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL NORTHERN BUTTE COUNTY...
  RURAL SOUTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY...

LAT...LON 4389 11313 4420 11347 4426 11333 4424 11332
      4424 11283 4437 11282 4438 11281 4415 11255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 238DEG 16KT 4418 11329 4401 11310

HUSTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
235 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014

IDZ023-032130-
CARIBOU ID-BINGHAM ID-BONNEVILLE ID-
235 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL BONNEVILLE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  EAST CENTRAL BINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  NORTH CENTRAL CARIBOU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO

UNTIL 330 PM MDT

AT 230 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF HENRY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL SOUTHERN BONNEVILLE COUNTY...
  RURAL EASTERN BINGHAM COUNTY...
  RURAL NORTHERN CARIBOU COUNTY...

LAT...LON 4341 11150 4322 11110 4296 11160 4308 11175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 211DEG 11KT 4306 11160

HUSTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
237 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014

IDZ022-032130-
CASSIA ID-
237 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN CASSIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO

UNTIL 330 PM MDT

AT 230 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF ELBA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
BRIEF MODERATE RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   ELBA...

LAT...LON 4247 11332 4227 11307 4204 11349 4217 11365
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 226DEG 10KT 4216 11348

HUSTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
247 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014

IDZ023-032145-
CARIBOU ID-BINGHAM ID-BANNOCK ID-
247 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL BANNOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  SOUTHEASTERN BINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  NORTHWESTERN CARIBOU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO

UNTIL 345 PM MDT

AT 242 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM EAST OF INKOM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL WESTERN CARIBOU COUNTY...
  RURAL NORTHERN BANNOCK COUNTY...
  RURAL SOUTHEASTERN BINGHAM COUNTY...

LAT...LON 4268 11216 4277 11229 4309 11200 4289 11172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 224DEG 9KT 4280 11214

HUSTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
252 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014

IDZ023-032145-
BINGHAM ID-BONNEVILLE ID-
252 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN BONNEVILLE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  EXTREME EAST CENTRAL BINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO

UNTIL 345 PM MDT

AT 248 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OF PALISADES...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   PALISADES...

LAT...LON 4331 11104 4302 11150 4314 11167 4356 11123
      4354 11118
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 222DEG 12KT 4331 11134 4310 11153

HUSTON

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