Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
156 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...BROAD UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS PACNW PER WV
SAT IMAGERY. LEADING SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH EAST IDAHO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN EVIDENCE OF MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO SEATTLE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP TO REINFORCE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF DEEPENING LOW IN PACNW SO EXPECT MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE TO POOL OVER EAST IDAHO WITH CONVECTIVE THREAT
CONTINUING PAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO NUDGE POPS
UPWARD PARTICULARLY EASTERN HALF OF FCST AREA EACH PERIOD THROUGH
SATURDAY. MAIN SHORTWAVE CARVING THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH LIFTS
INTO GREAT PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF STILL HINTING AT SECONDARY WAVE
DROPPING INTO REGION FROM CANADIAN DIVIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. COOLER TEMPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH POPS CLOSE
TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...WV/IR IMAGERY TODAY SHOWING MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING
EASTWARD AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
RE-DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HINT AT A
BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...BUT SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING PICKS UP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF UPPER JET SPEED
MAX. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD KEEP STABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THUS KEEPING MORNING THUNDER MENTION OUT OF TAFS. FORECAST
LIFTED INDICES BELOW ZERO WOULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING JUST AFTER NOON FRIDAY. LOW VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
PREVAIL...BUT FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS HINTING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY SHOW UP AT KIDA.  HINSBERGER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTHEAST IDAHO WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND
THE TROUGH WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL HELP MITIGATE FIRE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS A CONCERN AS
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT COMPARATIVELY GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS THAN TODAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD GREATLY
REDUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHTNING-IGNITED FIRES...BUT ALSO MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A GREATER FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN BURN SCARS. MODELS
SUGGEST A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...BUT DRIVE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY THOUGH AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
ON TUESDAY USHERING IN A PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.
HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
504 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ARCO                    43.63N 113.30W
08/21/2014                   BUTTE              ID   CO-OP OBSERVER

            AS A RESULT OF HEAVY SUSTAINED RAINFALL AND HAIL WEST AND
            WNW OF ARCO FROM 2 TO 4 PM TODAY, THE RAINFAL AND MELTING
            HAIL HAVE NOW REACHED HWY 20/26/93. THE FLOODING IS ABOUT
            TO CROSS OVER THIS HIGHWAY FROM MILE MARKERS 241 TO 243.
            MINOR RESIDENTIAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED WITH FLOODING
            INTO THE HOSPITAL. ALL THIS WATER IS COMING OUT OF ROCK
            CANYON NOW THAT ALL THE FARMERS CANALS ARE COMPLETELY
            FULL. A CITY BRIDGE ON ERA STREET HAS WASHED OUT AND THE
            STREET IS NOW CLOSED. MINOR FLOODING ON HWY 33.

&&

GWICKLUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
526 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     HAIL             NW ROBERTS              43.72N 112.13W
08/21/2014  M0.88 INCH       JEFFERSON          ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL HAS FALLEN FOR THE PAST 10 MINUTES, WITH CONTINUOUS
            LIGHTNING.

&&

GWICKLUN

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