Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
208 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOONS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN IN
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM CELLS. BASED ON MORNINGS UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS RANGE UP TO 1.25 INCHES.
INITIAL RADAR ESTIMATES THAT SOME OF THE SLOWER MOVING STORMS SO
FAR HAVE PRODUCED UP TO .75 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE LESS THAN 1
HOUR. DUE TO THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SLOW MOVEMENT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS OF IDAHO.
WIND GUST POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS NEARS 45 TO 50 MPH WHICH
COMBINED WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVEL SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

SATURDAY WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN FOR IMPACT CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ON SUNDAY WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES BY TO
THE NORTH OF US ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ALONG THE IDAHO / MONTANA BORDER. NORTHWEST FLOW
AFTERWARDS KEEPS US WARM AND DRY UNTIL FRIDAY. TWO LONG RANGE
MODELS HINTING AT TROUGH DEVELOPING BUT STRENGTH AND POSITION
LIMIT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT SO JUST PLACING CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT.  PRESTON

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
WILL HAVE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS WELL AS SATURDAY.  HAVE
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL 4 TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  WILL HAVE WIND GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BUT OTHER
THAN THAT NOT EXPECTING STRONG WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS THE DISTRICT.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ZONES 475 AND 476
DEWPOINTS ARE VERY ELEVATED AND EXPECT RAIN WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR.  FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE DISTRICT WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR
THIS EVENING.  EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ022>025.

&&