Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
727 AM MDT WED AUG 6 2014

.UPDATE...

LOOKING AT NEW MODELS STARTING TO ARRIVE ALONG WITH CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGES...DECIDED TO INCLUDE ENTIRE CWA IN FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. CURRENT BAND OF RAIN IS PRIMARILY EXTENDS FROM SHOSHONE
THROUGH MUDLAKE. SEEING SOME CLEARING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS
BAND...ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. ANTICIPATE THIS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

VALLE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM MDT WED AUG 6 2014/

DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
REMAIN ABOVE ONE INCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALL FLOOD
WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE UPPER AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN
WILL BE ADDED TO THE WATCH AS WELL. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A
NICE CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT HAS DEVELOPED...DISSIPATED...AND
REDEVELOPED OVER WESTERN CASSIA COUNTY AREA OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE VARIED WIDELY IN THAT AREA...BUT
THERE ARE MULTIPLE SITES THAT HAVE RECORDED RAIN IN EXCESS OF ONE
INCH. A REMOTE WEATHER STATION NORTHEAST OF MAGIC MOUNTAIN...TRAIL
GULCH REPORTED 1.68 INCHES IN THE LAST 12 HOURS ALONE. BOTH THE
00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUN OF THE NAM12 MODEL MOVE THE CLOSED 700 MB
CIRCULATION FROM THAT AREA...CLOSER TO POCATELLO BY NOON TODAY.
MODEL SUGGESTS .25 TO .50 INCH RAIN POSSIBLE WHEN THAT HAPPENS IN
THE AREA OF POCATELLO...IDAHO FALLS...ABERDEEN AND ALL FOUR FORT
HALL LODGES. WITH THE ABUNDANT RAIN OF THE PAST TWO DAYS...FEEL IT
PRUDENT TO EXPAND THE WATCH TO INCLUDE THAT AREA. THE 700MB
CIRCULATION REMAINS ROUGHLY IN THAT LOCATION WELL INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AND SLOWLY DRIFTS TO NEAR DRIGGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND
FINALLY CROSSES INTO WYOMING BY FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEW TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS
NEAR THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PORTION TRACKS THROUGH THE
PAN HANDLE WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION BECOMES A NEW CUT OFF LOW
FEATURE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GFS IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT
WAS YESTERDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNDAY OR MONDAY...BUT THE MODEL STILL
SAYS THERE IS A CHANCE. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SUGGESTING THIS MIGHT
BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY. RS

AVIATION...UPPER LOW NEAR KTWF THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND OCNL IFR CIGS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY. WITH MONSOON MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVE. OCNL MVFR VIS CAN BE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS...AND OCNL LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY AFTN
AT KBYI. HEDGES

FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MAGIC VALLEY TODAY WILL RESULT
IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AND HUMIDITY HIGH.
RESIDUAL MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MTNS AND ISOLATED ACTIVITY
IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO
MORE NORMAL SUMMER READINGS OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A DROP IN
HUMIDITY. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IDZ017>025-031-032.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1151 AM MDT WED AUG 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 NW AMERICAN FALLS     42.82N 112.91W
08/06/2014                   POWER              ID   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED NEAR PLEASANT VALLEY RD.

&&

EP