Winter Weather Advisory 15, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

887 
WWUS41 KPHI 160844
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
444 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ023-024-162100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0008.140317T0000Z-140317T1600Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...
CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY
444 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON EDT MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE MARYLAND COUNTIES OF QUEEN ANNE'S, TALBOT AND
  CAROLINE, THE DELAWARE COUNTIES OF KENT AND SUSSEX, AND CAPE
  MAY COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
  THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
  SNOW THIS EVENING. THE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MODERATE TO
  HEAVY FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 OR 30
  MPH.

* VISIBILITY...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S
  DURING MUCH OF THE SNOW EVENT.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
  OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
  ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ016>018-020>022-025>027-162100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0015.140317T0000Z-140317T1600Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...JACKSON...
MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...
WHARTON STATE FOREST
444 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON EDT MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...CECIL COUNTY AND KENT COUNTY IN MARYLAND, NEW
  CASTLE COUNTY IN DELAWARE, AND THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF SALEM,
  CUMBERLAND, ATLANTIC, GLOUCESTER, CAMDEN, SOUTHEASTERN
  BURLINGTON AND OCEAN.

* HAZARD TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. SOME SPOTS IN
  KENT COUNTY IN MARYLAND, SOUTHERN NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN DELAWARE
  AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY AND ATLANTIC COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY MAY
  RECEIVE CLOSE TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
  REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. THE MIXED
  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING.
  THE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING ON
  MONDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 OR 30
  MPH.

* VISIBILITY...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S
  DURING MUCH OF THE SNOW EVENT.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
  OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
  ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITY. USE EXTRA CAUTION IF DRIVING OVERNIGHT OR ON MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

$$

IOVINO

099 
WWUS41 KPHI 161844
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
244 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ016>018-020>022-025>027-170300-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0015.140317T0000Z-140317T1600Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0008.140317T0000Z-140317T1600Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...JACKSON...
MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...
WHARTON STATE FOREST
244 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON EDT MONDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...CECIL AND KENT COUNTIES IN MARYLAND...NEW CASTLE
  COUNTY IN DELAWARE AND THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF SALEM...
  GLOUCESTER...CAMDEN...OCEAN...CUMBBERLAND...ATLANTIC...AND
  SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON.

* HAZARD TYPE...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. 
 
* TIMING...SNOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
  SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN AT THE START.
  THE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHEN IT WILL FALL
  AT ITS HEAVIEST. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD END ON MONDAY 
  MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MIGHT FALL MONDAY 
  AFTERNOON. 

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. SOME HIGHER
  GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

* VISIBILITY...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S WHILE ITS SNOWING. 

* IMPACTS...THE SNOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS 
  OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. 
  ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS
OR IMPOSSIBLE. GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH 
YOUR DESTINATION. MAKE SURE YOUR CELL PHONES ARE FULLY CHARGED.
 
&&

$$

DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ023-024-170300-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0008.140317T0000Z-140317T1600Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...
CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY
244 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON EDT MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE MARYLAND COUNTIES OF QUEEN ANNE'S...TALBOT AND
  CAROLINE...THE DELAWARE COUNTIES OF KENT AND SUSSEX...AND CAPE
  MAY COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPE...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
  SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO
  SNOW THIS EVENING. THE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MODERATE TO
  HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL
  RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
  THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD END BY NOON ON MONDAY. 

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH
  ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

* VISIBILITY...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S DURING THE HEIGHT
  OF THE STORM.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
  OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
  ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL
  WILL BE DIFFICULT AT BEST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. UNNECESSARY
TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED. GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH 
YOUR DESTINATION. MAKE SURE YOUR CELL PHONES ARE FULLY CHARGED.

&&

$$

NJZ012>015-019-PAZ070-071-101-102-104-106-170300-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.140317T0000Z-140317T1600Z/
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...
TRENTON...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...
HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...
NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
244 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIA AND ITS
  LOCAL NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS NORTHEAST THROUGH MERCER, MIDDLESEX
  AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. 
 
* TIMING...SNOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
  SOUTHWEST DURING THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN AT THE
  START. THE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHEN IT
  WILL FALL AT ITS HEAVIEST. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD END ON
  MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MIGHT FALL
  MONDAY AFTERNOON.
 
* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WHILE ITS SNOWING.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. EXPECT RUSH HOUR 
DELAYS ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

$$

GIGI/O'HARA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OTHER THAN A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES, MAINLY ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES, A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA WAS MAINLY
DRY AND UNEVENTFUL. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS AT LATE EVENING, BUT OTHERWISE A MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT
IS IN STORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. GUSTY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST AND LOW 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND METRO
PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE NRLY SUNDAY...THEN BECOME NE LATE. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S N/W AND LOW 40S S/E. IT WILL BE
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE MORNING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE EXTENDD FCST OCCURS ERLY IN THE PD.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED TO THE N AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRES DEVELOPS ACRS THE SRN PLAINS AND MOVES NEWD OFF THE SRN MID-
ATLC CST.

THE MDLS STILL ARE HAVING SOME DIFFERENCES WRT THIS SYS. HOWEVER,
A FEW THINGS HAVE BECOME CLEARER. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH IS A BIT
STRONGER WHICH INDUCED A SWD SHIFT IN THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD. THE
SWD SHIFT SEEMS TO HAVE STOPPED (AT LEAST FOR NOW), BUT EVEN WITH
THAT, THE MDL DIFFS IN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH, THE LOW POSN AND
THE QPF WILL MAKE A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE IN WHAT OCCURS.

THE NAM/WRF WHICH 24 HOURS AGO WAS THE WETTEST/SNOWIEST SOLN HAS
NOW TURNED 180 DEGREES AND IS THE DRIEST.

DESPITE A STRONGER HIGH AND MOST OF THE MDLS KEEPING THEIR SRN
PRECIP SHIELD, THE GFS HAS HAD A SIGNIFICANT NWD SHIFT WITH ITS
15/12Z RUN. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO ITS HIGHER QPF AND FORCING AT
700 MB, BUT IS SUSPICIOUS NONETHELESS AND IS BEING IGNORED FOR
THIS FCST.

THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE A BIT WETTER THAN PREV RUNS, BUT BOTH HAVE A
FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT. EXACTLY WHERE THAT GRADIENT SETS UP IS THE
MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL BE OVER THE DELMARVA AND PORTION OF EXTREME SRN NJ, WITH
NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA GETTING VERY LITTLE, IF ANYTHING.

IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE OVER DURG THE
MRNG HOURS AND THE WHOLE EVENT SHOULD BE DONE BY ERLY AFTN IF NOT
SOONER.

BASED ON THE LTST FCST, HAVE ISSUED A WS WATCH FOR THE DELMARVA
AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME SRN NJ WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
FOR THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE WATCH, IT MAY END UP BEING AN ADVY
SITUATION, BUT AGAIN, WHERE THE GRADIENT SETS UP WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE THAT. THE HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR
THE OTHER AS ADDITIONAL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.

IN MANY WAYS, THIS EVENT IS SIMILAR TO THE MARCH 3 SYSTEM, BUT
THAT ONE CONTINUED TO SHIFT SWD, WHERE AT LEAST FOR NOW THAT
PROGRESSION HAS STOPPED.

BEYOND THIS SYSTEM, THE HIGH WILL EXERT ITSELF THRU THE ERLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AND IT LOOKS DRY. THERE IS A SECOND LOW THAT
IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE ATLC CST ON TUE/TUE NIGHT BUT ALL OF THE
GUID (EXCEPT THE NAM) KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFF THE CST, BUT IT WOULD
BE RAIN IF ANY PRECIP OCCURS.

ANOTHER LOW PRES SYS WILL BE MOVG ACRS THE NRN TIER ON WED AND
WILL BRING A CDFNT ACRS THE REGION LATER WED INTO ERLY THU. THIS
FRONT COULD TRIGGER SOME PRECIP, BUT TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT RAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

THE MARCH TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES. SUN WILL SEE TEMPS
BELOW NRML, BUT MON LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH
MANY AREAS NOT GETTING ABOVE FREEZING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
IMPACTS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ON TUE AND
RETURN TO NRML BY WED. TEMPS WILL THEN BE WELL INTO THE 50S THU
AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, AND FOR
THE OVERNIGHT, WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY DURING THE MORNING THEN TREND
TOWARDS NE BY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KTS BY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. VFR EXPECTED THRU
00Z MON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...CONDS LOWERING INTO TO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES AS SNOW
BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE W AND SW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND LWR CONDS ARE FOR THE SRN AND ERN AIRPORTS. MDT TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MON...IFR AND MVFR IN THE MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AREA OF SNOW MOVES OFF THE COAST. MDT TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT....VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED-WED NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOWERING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/EVE. LOW-MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THU...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ACROSS THE REGION,
WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS OUR AREA WATERS. WE THERFORE
CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING FOR OUR COASTAL
WATERS. ANY WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH GOING
INTO SUNDAY AND THEN GO NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OR THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS WILL GRADUALLY BE RAMPING BACK UP
GOING INTO LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MON...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN AND LWR DEL BAY.

MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING...SCA CONDS ANTICIPATED.

TUE AFTERNOON THRU THU...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED,
THOUGH WE COULD BE CLOSE TO SCA BY THU BEHIND CDFNT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
TIDAL DEPARTURES. THE FULL MOON OCCURS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FULL MOON ARE RATHER LOW
AND TIDAL DEPARTURES OF GREATER THAN A FOOT AND A HALF WOULD BE
NEEDED FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO OCCUR. BEING THAT THE LOW IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, THE LATEST EXTRA-TROPICAL
SURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. HOWEVER, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BEGORAH, MORE SNOWFALL RECORDS TO FALL AND/OR CLIMBING HIGHER IN
THE SNOWFALL RECORD DEPARTMENT:

DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR:

                  3/16          3/17
ALLENTOWN        12.0 IN 1896   4.2 IN 1967
ATLANTIC CITY     1.7 IN 1978   1.6 IN 1965
PHILADELPHIA      4.1 IN 1978   3.5 IN 1892
WILMINGTON        2.9 IN 1978   2.4 IN 1965

IN PHILADELPHIA, WE HAVE HAD 13 SEPARATE CALENDAR DAYS IN WHICH
AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW HAS FALLEN THIS SEASON. WE HAVE A CHANCE
TO MAKE IT 15 CALENDAR DAYS WHICH WOULD GIVE THIS SEASON SOLE
POSSESSION OF SECOND PLACE. 14 CALENDAR DAYS OCCURRED IN 1898-99
WHILE THE RECORD IS 17 CALENDAR DAYS IN THE 1917-18 SEASON.

SPEAKING OF SECOND PLACE, AN ADDITIONAL 2.7 INCHES WOULD GIVE
PHILADELPHIA (62.9 INCHES CURRENTLY) THE SECOND SNOWIEST SEASON ON
RECORD, SURPASSING THE 65.5 INCHES DURING THE 1995-6 SEASON. THE
ALL-TIME RECORD IS 78.7 INCHES IN 2009-10. IT APPEARS SAFE THROUGH
THIS EVENT. IF 6.6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW WERE TO FALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK, IT WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME EVER THERE HAVE BEEN FOUR DOUBLE
DIGIT MONTHS OF SNOWFALL IN ONE SEASON IN PHILADELPHIA.

ATLANTIC CITY (33.7 INCHES CURRENTLY) NEEDS ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW TO CRACK THE TOP 10 SNOWIEST SEASONS ON RECORD
AND 8.7 ADDITIONAL INCHES TO SUPPLANT 2002-3 AS THE 5TH SNOWIEST.
THE MOST RECENT SNOWIEST WINTER WAS 2010-11 (RANKED 8TH) AT 38.0
INCHES. NUMERO UNO IS THE WINTER OF 2009-10 AT 58.1 INCHES.

WILMINGTON (52.9 INCHES CURRENTLY) NEEDS 3.1 ADDITIONAL INCHES TO
SUPPLANT 1995-6 AS THE SECOND SNOWIEST SEASON ON RECORD. THE
RECORD IS 72.8 INCHES DURING THE 2009-10 SEASON.

ALLENTOWN SEASONAL SNOWFALL RANKS:

75.4 INCHES IN 1993-4
71.4 INCHES IN 1995-6
67.2 INCHES IN 1966-7
66.9 INCHES IN 2013-4

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ016-017-021>024.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...O'HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG/O'HARA
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG/O'HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...GIGI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-170115-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
915 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ009-010-012>015-PAZ060-103>106-170115-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
MERCER-BERKS-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
LOWER BUCKS-
915 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN INCH OR TWO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ018>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-101-102-170115-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-
915 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND TWO OR THREE INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016-017-170115-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
915 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THREE OR FOUR INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ021>024-170115-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
915 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND FOUR TO SIX INCHES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ025-170115-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-
915 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND FOUR TO SIX INCHES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ431-450>455-170115-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
915 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO NOON EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-170115-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
915 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHEAST ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.