Alert archive / New Jersey / Winter Weather Advisories in 2014

Winter Weather Advisory 12, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

February 17, 20144 states

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this winter weather advisory at Feb 17, 2014, 2:40 PM EST for 4 states. It took effect at Feb 18, 2014, 3:00 AM EST. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 17, 2014, 2:40 PM EST (19:40 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 18, 2014, 3:00 AM EST
Expired
Feb 18, 2014, 8:37 AM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
All 32 counties

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Caroline County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Kent County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 220 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2014-02-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2014-02-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 171 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1299 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
85 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
171 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
271 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

083 
WWUS41 KPHI 171940
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014
 
NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-103>106-180700-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.140218T0800Z-140218T1800Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...
CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, THE POCONOS, LEHIGH
VALLEY, BERKS COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN PHILADELPHIA SUBURBS FOR
SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY.
 
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. 
 
* TIMING...SNOW SHOULD COME IN RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND FALL MODERATE
  TO HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW SHOULD 
  END CLOSE TO NOON ON TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
  DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THIS WILL MAKE DRIVING AND PLOWING
  DIFFICULT. THE ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL CAUSE MORE STRAIN ON
  WEAKENED STRUCTURES INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR COLLAPSES. ISOLATED
  POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.
 
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES WHILE ITS
  SNOWING, RISING ABOVE FREEZING LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY, EXCEPT 
  IN THE POCONOS.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN HALF A MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW. WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. GIVE YOURSELF MORE
TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION ON TUESDAY MORNING. DOUBLING OF 
COMMUTING TIMES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DO NOT TAILGATE.
 
&&

$$

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-101-102-180700-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.140218T0800Z-140218T1600Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...
WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE
240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN
DELMARVA THROUGH THE LOCAL PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA FOR 
SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY.
 
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. 

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY A TRACE.
 
* TIMING...THE SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON
  TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL FALL MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES
  DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. A CHANGE TO
  FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
  LESSENS LATER IN THE MORNING.
 
* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY DURING
  THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MORNING
  COMMUTE AND IMPACT BOTH TRAVELING AND PLOWING.
 
* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DEGREES WHILE ITS SNOWING, RISING ABOVE
  FREEZING LATER IN THE DAY.

* VISIBILITIES...AROUND HALF A MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY 
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING. EXPECT LONGER COMMUTING TIMES. DO NOT TAILGATE.

&&

$$

DEZ002-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ020>022-027-180700-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.140218T0800Z-140218T1400Z/
KENT-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...
JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...WHARTON STATE FOREST
240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY.
 
* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET AND THEN SOME FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES...ALONG WITH
  LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.
  
* TIMING...SNOW WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TRANSITION TO SLEET
  AND FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE
  WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN LATER IN THE MORNING BEFORE ENDING.

* IMPACTS...THE WINTRY MIX WILL MAKE FOR LONGER COMMUTING TIMES ON'
  TUESDAY MORNING.
 
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S DURING THE WINTRY MIX, RISING
  INTO THE 40S LATER ON TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

ROBERTSON/GIGI
5 follow-up statements
111 
WWUS41 KPHI 172021
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
321 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-103>106-180730-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.140218T0800Z-140218T1800Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...
CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
321 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM
EST TUESDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 4 INCHES...EXCEPT 4 TO
  6 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER OF THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

* TIMING...SNOW SHOULD COME IN RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND FALL 
  MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE. 
  SNOW SHOULD END CLOSE TO NOON ON TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR 
  DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THIS WILL MAKE DRIVING AND PLOWING 
  DIFFICULT. THE ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL CAUSE MORE STRAIN ON 
  WEAKENED STRUCTURES INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR COLLAPSES. 
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES WHILE ITS 
  SNOWING... RISING ABOVE FREEZING LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY... 
  EXCEPT IN THE POCONOS.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN HALF A MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW. WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. GIVE YOURSELF MORE
TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION ON TUESDAY MORNING. DOUBLING OF
COMMUTING TIMES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DO NOT TAILGATE.

&&

$$

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-101-102-180730-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.140218T0800Z-140218T1600Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...
WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE
321 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM
EST TUESDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY A TRACE.

* TIMING...THE SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE 
  ON TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL FALL MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES 
  DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. A CHANGE TO 
  FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY 
  LESSENS LATER IN THE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY 
  DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE 
  MORNING COMMUTE AND IMPACT BOTH TRAVELING AND PLOWING.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DEGREES WHILE ITS SNOWING... RISING 
  ABOVE FREEZING LATER IN THE DAY.

* VISIBILITIES...AROUND HALF A MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING. EXPECT LONGER COMMUTING TIMES. DO NOT TAILGATE.

&&

$$

DEZ002-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ020>022-027-180730-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.140218T0800Z-140218T1400Z/
KENT-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...
JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...WHARTON STATE FOREST
321 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM
EST TUESDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET AND THEN SOME FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES...ALONG WITH 
  LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TRANSITION TO 
  SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING 
  COMMUTE WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN LATER IN THE MORNING BEFORE 
  ENDING.

* IMPACTS...THE WINTRY MIX WILL MAKE FOR LONGER COMMUTING TIMES 
  ON' TUESDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S DURING THE WINTRY MIX... 
  RISING INTO THE 40S LATER ON TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

GIGI/ROBERTSON/MORE ACCUMULATION SPECIFICITY IN THE FIRST ADVISORY
GROUP.
805 
WWUS41 KPHI 180220
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
920 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-103>106-181100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.140218T0800Z-140218T1800Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...
CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
920 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM
EST TUESDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...HIGHEST
  ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

* TIMING...SNOW SHOULD START CLOSE TO 3 AM TUESDAY MORNING AND
  FALL MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE
  SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF IN THE PHILADELPHIA SUBURBS AND
  BERKS COUNTY IN THE MID MORNING AND LATER THAT MORNING IN THE
  LEHIGH VALLEY, POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

* IMPACTS...ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
  DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THIS WILL MAKE DRIVING AND PLOWING
  DIFFICULT. THE ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL CAUSE MORE STRAIN ON
  WEAKENED STRUCTURES INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR COLLAPSES.
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES WHILE ITS
  SNOWING...RISING ABOVE FREEZING LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY...
  EXCEPT IN THE POCONOS.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN HALF A MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW. WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. GIVE YOURSELF MORE
TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION ON TUESDAY MORNING. DOUBLING OF
COMMUTING TIMES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DO NOT TAILGATE.

&&

$$

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-101-102-181100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.140218T0800Z-140218T1600Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...
WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE
920 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM
EST TUESDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...CHANCE OF A TRACE.

* TIMING...THE SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON
  TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL FALL MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES
  DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. A CHANGE TO
  FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION
  INTENSITY LESSENS DURING THE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY DURING
  THE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE FIRST HALF
  OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND IMPACT BOTH TRAVELING AND PLOWING. 

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DEGREES WHILE ITS SNOWING...RISING
  ABOVE FREEZING LATER IN THE DAY.

* VISIBILITIES...AROUND HALF A MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING. EXPECT LONGER COMMUTING TIMES. DO NOT TAILGATE.

&&

$$

DEZ002-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ020>022-027-181100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.140218T0800Z-140218T1400Z/
KENT-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...
JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...WHARTON STATE FOREST
920 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM
EST TUESDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET AND THEN SOME FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES...ALONG WITH 
  LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN 3 AM AND 5 AM. A TRANSITION TO
  SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING
  COMMUTE WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN LATER IN THE MORNING BEFORE
  PRECIPITATION ENDS.

* IMPACTS...THE WINTRY MIX WILL MAKE FOR LONGER COMMUTING TIMES
  AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS ON TUESDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S DURING THE WINTRY MIX... 
  RISING INTO THE 40S LATER ON TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
028 
WWUS41 KPHI 180825
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
325 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-103>106-181630-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-140218T1800Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...
CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
325 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...HIGHEST
  ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW
  JERSEY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY 5AM...BUT LIGHT SNOW
  COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

* IMPACTS...ICY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON AREA ROADS. THE
  ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL CAUSE MORE STRAIN ON WEAKENED STRUCTURES
  INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR COLLAPSES. 

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGHS
  TODAY HOWEVER SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.

* VISIBILITIES...AROUND ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW. WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. GIVE YOURSELF MORE
TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION ON TUESDAY MORNING. DOUBLING OF
COMMUTING TIMES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DO NOT TAILGATE.

&&

$$

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-101-102-181600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-140218T1600Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...
WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE
325 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY 5AM...BUT LIGHT SNOW
  COULD LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ICY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON AREA ROADS. THE
  ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL CAUSE MORE STRAIN ON WEAKENED STRUCTURES
  INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR COLLAPSES.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DEGREES WHILE ITS SNOWING...RISING 
  ABOVE FREEZING LATER IN THE DAY.

* VISIBILITIES...AROUND ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING. EXPECT LONGER COMMUTING TIMES. DO NOT TAILGATE.

&&

$$

DEZ002-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ020>022-027-181400-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-140218T1400Z/
KENT-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...
JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...WHARTON STATE FOREST
325 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES..

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY 5 AM.

* IMPACTS...ICY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON AREA ROADS THROUGH
  EARLY THIS MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S THIS MORNING... RISING INTO THE
  40S BY MID DAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

JOHNSON
938 
WWUS41 KPHI 181144
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
644 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-103>106-181245-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-140218T1800Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...
CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
644 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF...THOUGH THERE REMAIN JUST A FEW LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

$$

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-PAZ070-071-101-102-181245-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-140218T1600Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNET SQUARE
644 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF...THOUGH THERE REMAIN JUST A FEW LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

$$

DEZ002-MDZ015-019-020-181245-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-140218T1400Z/
KENT-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON
644 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF...THOUGH THERE REMAIN JUST A FEW LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

$$

NJZ009-010-012-013-015-181800-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-140218T1800Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON
644 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT LIGHT
  SNOW COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

* IMPACTS...ICY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON AREA ROADS. THE 
  ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL CAUSE MORE STRAIN ON WEAKENED STRUCTURES 
  INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR COLLAPSES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S EARLY THIS MORNING. 
  HIGHS TODAY HOWEVER SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.

* VISIBILITIES...AROUND ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW. WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. GIVE YOURSELF MORE
TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION ON TUESDAY MORNING. DOUBLING OF
COMMUTING TIMES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DO NOT TAILGATE.

&&

$$

NJZ016>019-181600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-140218T1600Z/
SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...
CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY
644 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT LIGHT
  SNOW COULD LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ICY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON AREA ROADS. THE 
  ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL CAUSE MORE STRAIN ON WEAKENED STRUCTURES 
  INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR COLLAPSES.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DEGREES WHILE ITS SNOWING...RISING 
  ABOVE FREEZING LATER IN THE DAY.

* VISIBILITIES...AROUND ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING. EXPECT LONGER COMMUTING TIMES. DO NOT TAILGATE.

&&

$$

NJZ020>022-027-181400-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-140218T1400Z/
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
WHARTON STATE FOREST
644 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
  AND MAY MIX WITH RAIN.

* IMPACTS...ICY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON AREA ROADS THROUGH 
  EARLY THIS MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S THIS MORNING... RISING INTO 
  THE 40S BY MID DAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$


JOHNSON
503 
WWUS41 KPHI 181337
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
837 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

NJZ009-010-012-013-015-181445-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-140218T1800Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON
837 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS COME TO AN END, THEREFORE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THERE COULD STILL
REMAIN SOME SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH SNOW COVERED
AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS.

$$

NJZ020>022-027-181445-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-140218T1400Z/
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
WHARTON STATE FOREST
837 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS COME TO AN END, THEREFORE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THERE COULD STILL
REMAIN SOME SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH SNOW COVERED
AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS.

$$

NJZ016>019-181445-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-140218T1600Z/
SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...
CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY
837 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS COME TO AN END, THEREFORE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THERE COULD STILL
REMAIN SOME SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH SNOW COVERED
AND SLIPPERY ROADWAYS.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter weather advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter weather advisory went out at Feb 17, 10:49 AM EST, 3 hours 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 17, 10:49 AM EST, 3 hours 51 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1049 AM EST MON FEB 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE A SERIES OF FRONTS. THE
FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION BY
TOMORROW. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT WILL BE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWED BY
A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY,
BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WIND WILL
BECOME MORE WLY THEN SWLY AND LIGHTER AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INCREASE A BIT AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY. IF WE'RE LUCKY WE MAY MAKE
IT TO FREEZING FROM PHL S AND E. BUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE (COUPLED
WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE) AND LIGHTER WIND IT WILL FEEL WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
1048 AM NOTE: WE ARE AWARE OF THE ROBUST 12Z/17 NAM AND RGEM
MODELS AND THE LESSER BUT STILL MORE ROBUST 12Z GFS WHEN COMPARED
TO THE 06Z VSN...ALL THIS FOR THE NJT AND I95 REGION TUESDAY
MORNING AND EVALUATING TOGETHER WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
THE NCEP. NO CHANGES IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME.

THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRES MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE AS A
WK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES EWD. THIS LOW WILL BRING PRECIP
TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PD. OVER NRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. ELSEWHERE PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SOMETHING ELSE. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MDLS. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRIER
THAN THE MDL CONSENSUS. IT IS ALSO SLOWER. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN
MOST OF THE PRECIP AFTER 18/12Z WHILE THE OTHER MDLS BRING IT IN
PRIOR TO 12Z. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF MOST PRECIP UNTIL THE 09-12Z
TIME FRAME FROM W TO E. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL ALSO HOLD OFF ANY
HEADLINES UNTIL THERE IS MORE CERTAINTY WITHIN THE MDLS. IF THE
ECMWF SOLN IS CORRECT THEY MAY NOT BE NEEDED AT ALL. ALSO, TEMPS
FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR S AND E WILL BE MARGINAL AFTER 12Z AND WE
GET INTO TIMING, QPF AND TIME OF DAY ISSUES AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT TOO MUCH TO ADD TO THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. ONE
CONCERN IN THE MORNING HOURS IS THAT IF THE FASTER NAM/GFS
SOLUTIONS COME TRUE...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD FOR DRIZZLE OR
EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE PRECIP LEAVES THE REGION AT OR
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OUT A
PAIR OF FRONTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS A BIT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT GIVEN THE
PATTERN THIS WINTER...I WOULDN'T RULE OUT PRECIP WITH THE
SYSTEM...THUS HAVE KEPT THE 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
THE BEGINNINGS OF THE NEXT...AND BIGGER SYSTEM...WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY. THOUGH THERE REMAIN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE
TIMING...EXPECT THE MAIN WARM FRONT TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
MOSTLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY...THE BIG QUESTION THIS DAY WILL BE WHAT TIME THE COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE FRONT TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION FROM EARLY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WHAT THIS TIMING WILL MEAN FOR THE REGIONS WEATHER IS THAT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE MAX TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE 40S IN THE POCONOS WHERE
THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE FIRST...TO NEAR 60 IN SOUTHERN DE...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE LAST LOCATION IN OUR REGION TO SEE THE FRONT. IT
ALSO MEANS THAT GENERALLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ESPECIALLY IN SE NJ AND DE. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST AS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT IS THAT THE
TEMPERATURE TREND MAY NOT BE A TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND IF THE FRONT
SPEEDS UP ANY MORE THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THERE MAY
CONTINUE TO BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY TAKE OVER BY EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY....AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE
MAY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS TIME...THOUGH THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH. FOR NOW...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PD, BUT CONDS
WILL DECREASE TO MVFR OR PERHAPS EVEN IFR TWD THE END OF THE FCST.
HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WX FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND
EXPECT DRY WX AND DECREASING WIND THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS INTO THE
FIRST PORTION OF TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE FEW CLOUDS TODAY BUT THEY
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN TONIGHT.

BY LATER TONIGHT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE W. THIS LOW WILL TOUCH OFF SOME SNOW BY DAYBREAK TUE FROM W TO
E. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO THIS FEATURE
BUT CERTAINLY SOME MVFR AND LCLY IFR IS PSBL TWD THE END OF THE
FCST PD.

WIND WILL BE NW TO START AND GRADUALLY BECOME SE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND INTO TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENLY BE LESS THAN
10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM ISOLATED IFR AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO VFR BY AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIPITATION LEAVES THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA OR SHSN ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO MVFR IN -RA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT...BUT ALSO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM AS WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20-25
KNOTS, HOWEVER, NO ADDITIONAL FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE LATEST GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TURNING WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.

THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WINDS AND WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PROBABLE SCA CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY...SCA LIKELY...NEAR GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY IN THE MORNING...THEN TAKING AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR TUESDAY FEBRUARY 18 WHERE THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF EQUALING OR EXCEEDING.

PHL 3.6 2000
ABE 3.7 1964
ILG 2.5 1964

THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 15TH HAVE AVERAGED ABOUT
3 DEGREES (SOUTH) TO 6 DEGREES (NORTH)...COLDER THAN NORMAL.

SEASONAL SNOW TOTALS AND RANKING AS OF 7 AM TODAY-SUNDAY FEBRUARY 16.

PHL 55.4 IS TIED FOR #3   OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1884

1. 78.7  2009-10
2. 65.5  1995-96
3. 55.4  2013-14
         1898-99
5. 54.9  1977-78

ABE 65.4 IS #4   OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1922

1. 75.4  1993-94
2. 71.4  1995-96
3. 67.2  1966-67
4. 65.4  2013-14
5. 65.2  1960-61

ILG 45.9 IS #5   OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1894

1. 72.8 2009-10
2. 49.5 1957-58
3. 48.8 1906-07 (MISSING DAYS)
4. 46.1 2002-03
5. 45.9 2013-14

ACY 27.0 RANKED 18. OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1874.

FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY THROUGH 7AM TODAY-SUNDAY 2/16/14

PHL 18.3 RANKED 10TH AND MAY JUMP TO # 7 TUESDAY MORNING? HERE IS
THE PHILADELPHIA FEBRUARY SNOWFALL RANKING LISTING BELOW.

1. 51.5 2010
2. 31.5 1899
3. 29.6 2003
4. 27.6 1979
5. 26.1 1983
6. 24.1 1907
7. 19.0 1978
8/9 18.5 1967 AND 1934
10. 18.3 2014

ABE 35.2 RANKED #2 BEHIND THE 42.9 OF 2010.

ILG 16.5 RANKED #11 BEHIND THE 18.0 #10 OF 1899 AND THE #1 46.9 OF
2010.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 1048A
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...1048A
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 17, 4:03 AM EST, 10 hours 37 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 AM EST MON FEB 17 2014

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-180915-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
403 AM EST MON FEB 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SNOW IS POSSIBLE STARTING LATE TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD NEAR DAWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE ISSUED LATER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>019-PAZ070-071-
101>106-180915-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
403 AM EST MON FEB 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SNOW IS POSSIBLE STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED LATER IF THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ003-004-NJZ020>027-180915-
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
403 AM EST MON FEB 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ONE INCH.
HOWEVER...IF THE GROUND IS COLD ENOUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME ICY
CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADS TOMORROW MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-180915-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
403 AM EST MON FEB 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

JOHNSON

The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 17, 3:27 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryPHI30 hr

Nearby

Winter Weather Advisories in New Jersey, 2014Winter Weather Advisories in Pennsylvania, 2014Winter Weather Advisories in Maryland, 2014Every winter weather advisory in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.