Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
226 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE ARTHUR LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT BEFORE TRACKING OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA BY SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391 IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL 1000 PM.

ANY FINE TUNING TO THE NEAR TERM WITH THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE
MINIMAL. WHILE OUR AIR MASS WAS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY, ITS
ANYTHING BUT STABLE TODAY. MODEL SFC BASED CAPES ARE PREDICTED TO
TOP 3K JOULES AND ML CAPES ARE ALREADY AROUND 2K JOULES. WEST OF
OUR CWA EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS GREATER THAN 30KTS AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SEVERE. THE SHORT
WAVE/OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER WESTERN PA INITIATING CONVECTION SHOULD
ONLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS THE DAY CONTINUES. PWAT REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0, SO DOUBLE THREAT OF SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NY/PA/WV. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PA BEFORE REACHING EASTERN
PA LATE IN THE DAY. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW
THOUGH WITH AN AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OFFSHORE AND S-SW
STEERING FLOW ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. A MOISTURE- LADEN
AIRMASS ALREADY RESIDES OVER THE AREA WITH SATELLITE-DERIVED PWATS
JUST SHY OF 2 INCHES. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD TODAY AHEAD OF HURRICANE ARTHUR.

EXPECT A SIMILAR SETUP THIS AFTERNOON RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY,
WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS ORGANIZE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
CENTRAL/ EASTERN PA. LIFT WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
AREA WILL BE COLLOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRENGTHENING ULVL JET STREAK AND AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. COVERAGE SHOULD ACCORDINGLY BE WIDESPREAD LATE IN
THE DAY IN THE WESTERN ZONES AND MORE SCATTERED CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 00Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
FOR THIS AFTN, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CONDITIONAL ON STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING OCCURRING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AS THE
SETUP IS PRIMED FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS.

HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT WAS
CONSERVATIVE RELATIVE TO THE WARM MAV GUIDANCE. COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S, HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD, IF NOT STALL, OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASE FURTHER IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ULVL JET STREAK. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE
SLOW MOVING AND HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...RESULTING
IN A CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LINGER THRU THE EVE BUT SHOULD WANE
EARLIER THAN WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY TROPICAL. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL MOVE WELL EAST OF
THE AREA. ITS ENHANCED WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL BE ACROSS NJ/DE DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS FRI. IMPROVING WEATHER WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT.

SAT THRU SUN NIGHT...A DRY FCST AS HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS THE
REGION. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA SAT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING HIGH AND ARTHUR WILL BE ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SAT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOW/MID
80S. HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER AND COMFORTABLE THIS WEEKEND.

MON...THE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE
DRY...BUT THERE IS A CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM ACROSS THE N/W
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL

TUE THRU WED...A BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. A RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WITH THE 18Z TAFS DURING THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION AND WAS HANDLED WITH VCSH FROM THE KPHL AREA AIRPORTS
WESTWARD. SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS.

DURING THIS EVENING WE ARE FORECASTING A LINE OF STRONG, ISOLATED
SEVERE, TSTMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL, BUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY WESTERN AIRPORTS.

OVERNIGHT THE CONGEALING OF MOISTURE FROM ARTHUR AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER WILL OCCUR, BUT TOO LOW COVERAGE TO
INCLUDE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST TO VFR LEVELS.
MIGHT NOT BE TIL THE AFTERNOON AT KMIV AND KACY. NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WINDS SAT.

MONDAY...VFR. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
PHL.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY WINDS 15-20 KT THIS AFTN AND EVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL RANGE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE IN THE COASTAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND 2-3 FT IN THE DELAWARE BAY. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES
POSSIBLE IN TSTMS THIS AFTN AND TNGT. SMWS MAY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...OUTER EDGE OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
WITH ENHANCED WINDS/SEAS. SCA WINDS/SEAS ARE PRESENTLY FCST...BUT
ANY CHANGE TO TRACK OR INTENSITY WILL REQUIRE TROPICAL STORM
FLAGS. STAY TUNED. SAT NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...SUB- SCA
CONDITIONS. LATER SUN THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED ON THE DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR TODAY THRU FRIDAY
MORNING. THE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA
FOR LATE THIS AFTN, TNGT AND NOW INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

REASONS...SLOW MOVING SURFACE FRONT, 2.00" PW'S AHEAD AND ALONG
THE FRONT, AMPLE INSTABILITY, PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE,
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENT OR PRE.

TIMING...WHILE AN ABOVE INGREDIENT OR TWO ARE IN PLACE AT SOME
TIME TEMPORALLY WITHIN THE WATCH, THEY ALL COME TOGETHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DURING THIS TIME, THE PW'S PEAK AROUND
2.00" AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE H25 JET IS OVERHEAD.

PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENTS (PRE)...AT THE MOMENT, THE GENERAL
QPF CONSENSUS FOR THE REGION IS BETWEEN ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
RAINFALL, FALLING THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THAT SAID,
IS IT KNOWN THAT NWP MODELS CAN UNDERESTIMATE HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION IN GENERAL AND PARTICULARLY WITH PRE.

DO WE HAVE PRE INGREDIENTS? YES WE DO. THIS INCLUDES THE RIGHT
REAR UPPER JET, BEING AHEAD OF THE MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS AT
THE MID-LEVELS, AND NEAR OR JUST WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS. ADDITIONALLY, IF YOU LOOK AT THE CLIMATOLOGY OF PRE'S, MORE
OF THEM ARE TO THE LEFT OF A CYCLONE TRACK.

ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENHANCED FLASH
FLOOD RISK AS ONE TO THREE INCHES FELL FROM THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA. THE GROUND
IS SATURATED FROM THIS PRIOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL RUNOFF.

ALL OF THE ABOVE, AT LEAST AT THIS TIME, SEEM TO BE COMING
TOGETHER OVER EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON/EVE AND NJ/DELMARVA TNGT.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE RIDGING RIGHT TO THE WEST OF ARTHUR
COULD SLOW THE APPROACHING FRONT DOWN EVEN MORE THAN WHAT MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

ON A POSITIVE NOTE, ONE OF THE MORE TYPICAL INGREDIENTS WE
COMMONLY SEE IN LARGE RAIN EVENTS ACROSS THE FALL LINE IS A
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH AN EXTENDED FETCH. IN THIS CASE, WE
ARE NOT SEEING THAT, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS SHOULD GO SOUTHEAST RIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE.

RAINFALL...1.00 TO 3.00", BUT WITH PW'S AROUND 2.00" CAN
DEFINITELY SEE 4.00", MAYBE 5.00" IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS.

FLOODING...AT THE MOMENT, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FLOODING ON ANY
MAIN STEMS AT THIS TIME. OUR CONCERN LIES WITH THE SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN DELAWARE AS WELL AS
URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN INCREASE IN RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY FRIDAY AND FOR THE WEEKEND
AS HURRICANE ARTHUR MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATE IF NOT HIGH DURING THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN THE LATEST NHC FORECAST. THIS POSES A HUGE CONCERN
CONSIDERING THE LARGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE, INCLUDING THE LESS
EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS, WHO WILL VENTURE OUT DURING ONE OF THE
BIGGEST BEACH WEEKENDS OF THE YEAR. THE TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON LAND THIS WEEKEND COULD LEAD TO A FALSE SENSE OF
SAFETY IN THE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE-THREATENING IF YOU/RE NOT PREPARED TO
HANDLE THEM. FOR THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SAFETY...SWIM ONLY UNDER
THE WATCHFUL EYES OF LIFEGUARDS. OTHERWISE ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR
RESCUE CAN SUFFER FROM A MUCH GREATER RESPONSE DELAY AND BE FATAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012-013-015>019.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ014-020>027.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/O'HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER/O'HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O'HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O'HARA
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
RIP CURRENTS...STAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-
071-101>106-041930-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
328 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

HURRICANE ARTHUR IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE CAROLINAS
AND THEN OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR UPDATES ON THE TRACK. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST IN ADVANCE OF ARTHUR
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002-003-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ020>023-027-041930-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-OCEAN-
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
328 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

HURRICANE ARTHUR IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE CAROLINAS
AND THEN OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR UPDATES ON THE TRACK. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST IN ADVANCE OF
ARTHUR THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-041930-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
328 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

HURRICANE ARTHUR IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE CAROLINAS
AND THEN OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR UPDATES ON THE TRACK.

ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-041930-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
328 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE ARTHUR IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE CAROLINAS
AND THEN OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR UPDATES ON THE TRACK. GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
WATERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS THE STORM TRACKS CLOSEST TO THE
REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1236 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             POCONO SUMMIT           41.11N  75.39W
07/02/2014  M0.75 INCH       MONROE             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN POCONO SUMMIT.

0204 PM     HAIL             SCOTRUN                 41.07N  75.32W
07/02/2014  M0.33 INCH       MONROE             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL

0407 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SMITHFIELD TWP          41.02N  75.15W
07/02/2014                   MONROE             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG ACE LANE.

0447 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRANKFORD TWP           41.15N  74.72W
07/02/2014                   SUSSEX             NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE FELL ONTO A HOUSE.

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     INDEPENDENCE TWP        40.88N  74.88W
07/02/2014                   WARREN             NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            WIRES DOWN.

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALLAMUCHY TWP           40.92N  74.84W
07/02/2014                   WARREN             NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            WIRES DOWN.

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRENCHTOWN              40.53N  75.06W
07/02/2014                   HUNTERDON          NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FLEMINGTON              40.51N  74.86W
07/02/2014                   HUNTERDON          NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN FLEMINTON

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RARITAN TWP             40.52N  74.88W
07/02/2014                   HUNTERDON          NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN RARITAN TWP

0615 PM     FLOOD            FRENCHTOWN              40.53N  75.06W
07/02/2014                   HUNTERDON          NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            ROUTE 12 FLOODED BETWEEN FRENCHTOWN TO FLEMINGTON

0705 PM     HAIL             PISCATAWAY              40.50N  74.40W
07/02/2014  E0.88 INCH       MIDDLESEX          NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FLEMINGTON              40.51N  74.86W
07/02/2014                   HUNTERDON          NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            CAR STUCK IN ROAD IN FLEMINTON ON ROUTE 212

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PHOENIXVILLE            40.13N  75.52W
07/02/2014                   CHESTER            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ALONG POTTERS POND DRIVE IN
            PHOENIXVILLE.

0744 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E BEAR                39.62N  75.66W
07/02/2014                   NEW CASTLE         DE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UPROOTED TREES AND NUMEROUS DOWNED BRANCHES. ESTIMATED
            59MPH WIND GUST.

0746 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOLMDEL                 40.35N  74.18W
07/02/2014                   MONMOUTH           NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN IN HOLMDEL

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA  40.09N  75.02W
07/02/2014                   PHILADELPHIA       PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS
            NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA.

0810 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW MOUNT HOLLY WFO    39.97N  74.87W
07/02/2014                   BURLINGTON         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ALONG I 295. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW CINNAMINSON        40.02N  75.02W
07/02/2014                   BURLINGTON         NJ   SOCIAL MEDIA

            DAMAGE TO SAIL BOATS REPORTED AS THE STORM MOVED OVER
            THE DELAWARE RIVER.

0821 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LUMBERTON TWP           39.96N  74.81W
07/02/2014                   BURLINGTON         NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            WIRES DOWN.

0858 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WOODBRIDGE              40.56N  74.28W
07/02/2014                   MIDDLESEX          NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF HIGH WATER RESCUES AT ROUTE 9 IN
            WOODBRIDGE.

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PERTH AMBOY             40.52N  74.27W
07/02/2014                   MIDDLESEX          NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ALONG NEW BRUNSWICK AVE IN PERTH
            AMBOY.

0901 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SAYREVILLE              40.47N  74.32W
07/02/2014                   MIDDLESEX          NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF HIGH WATER RESCUES WHERE HIGHWAY
            9... 35... AND ROUTE 4 COME TOGETHER.

0909 PM     HAIL             BERLIN                  39.79N  74.94W
07/02/2014  M0.25 INCH       CAMDEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTED

1155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRASONVILLE             38.96N  76.21W
07/02/2014                   QUEEN ANNE'S       MD   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND LINES DOWN IN GRASONVILLE AND
            CENTERVILLE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

1210 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENSBORO              38.98N  75.81W
07/03/2014                   CAROLINE           MD   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ALONG GREENSBORO ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR

1223 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MARYDEL                 39.11N  75.74W
07/03/2014                   KENT               DE   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

1230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HARTLY                  39.17N  75.71W
07/03/2014                   KENT               DE   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ONTO A BUILDING. ALSO... LARGE TREE DOWN ONTO
            WIRES ALONG CRYSTAL ROAD.

1234 AM     TSTM WND GST     VOSHELL COVE            39.17N  75.60W
07/03/2014  M51 MPH          KENT               DE   MESONET

1238 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CHESWOLD                39.22N  75.58W
07/03/2014                   KENT               DE   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

1258 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HARTLY                  39.17N  75.71W
07/03/2014                   KENT               DE   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN IN HARTLY.

0100 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND CAPE MAY                38.94N  74.90W
07/03/2014  M40 MPH          CAPE MAY           NJ   WEATHER FLOW

0100 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND SHIP JOHN SHOAL NOS     39.30N  75.38W
07/03/2014  M51 MPH          ANZ430             NJ   NOS PLATFORM

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1400351 PHI1400352 PHI1400372 PHI1400373 PHI1400374
PHI1400375 PHI1400362 PHI1400363 PHI1400364 PHI1400361 PHI1400365
PHI1400360 PHI1400377 PHI1400353 PHI1400359 PHI1400376 PHI1400357
PHI1400358 PHI1400381 PHI1400354 PHI1400382 PHI1400355 PHI1400356
PHI1400368 PHI1400366 PHI1400379 PHI1400378 PHI1400367 PHI1400380
PHI1400370 PHI1400369 PHI1400371

STAFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
122 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

NJZ007-PAZ055-062-031800-
MONROE PA-NORTHAMPTON PA-WARREN NJ-
122 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHAMPTON...NORTHERN WARREN
AND SOUTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 118 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR EASTLAWN GARDENS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. DO
NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN CAN CAUSE RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WIND GAP AROUND 130 PM...BANGOR AROUND 140
PM...EAST BANGOR AROUND 150 PM AND COLUMBIA AROUND 200 PM.

LAT...LON 4103 7513 4087 7489 4063 7530 4076 7546

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
223 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

NJZ001-007-008-031915-
MORRIS NJ-SUSSEX NJ-WARREN NJ-
223 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WARREN...NORTHWESTERN
MORRIS AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES...

AT 220 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR HOPE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN CAN CAUSE RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR GREAT MEADOWS-VIENNA AROUND 230 PM...
ALLAMUCHY-PANTHER VALLEY AROUND 240 PM...ANDOVER AROUND 250 PM...
HOPATCONG AROUND 300 PM...OGDENSBURG AROUND 310 PM AND LAKE TELEMARK
AROUND 320 PM.

LAT...LON 4114 7459 4093 7445 4082 7498 4095 7506

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
315 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

PAZ060-032000-
BERKS PA-
315 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL BERKS COUNTY...

AT 313 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PLEASANT HILL...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. DO
NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN CAN CAUSE RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR STRAUSSTOWN AROUND 400 PM.

LAT...LON 4052 7637 4052 7625 4054 7620 4054 7618
      4057 7610 4057 7607 4055 7604 4037 7624
      4049 7644 4050 7643

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WASHINGTON TWP          40.83N  75.20W
07/03/2014                   NORTHAMPTON        PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ONTO WIRES ALONG ACKERMANVILLE ROAD IN
            WASHINGTON TWP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1400383

STAFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

PAZ054-055-032100-
CARBON PA-MONROE PA-
408 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CARBON AND NORTHWESTERN MONROE
COUNTIES...

AT 407 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CHRISTMANS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. DO
NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN CAN CAUSE RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR LAKE HARMONY AROUND 420 PM...ARROWHEAD LAKE
AROUND 430 PM...GOULSBORO STATE PARK AROUND 440 PM AND SKYTOP AROUND
450 PM.

LAT...LON 4125 7515 4083 7566 4095 7590 4101 7574
      4105 7578 4110 7576 4114 7569 4113 7564
      4123 7554 4126 7517

FORECASTER: HEAVENER