Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL AFFECT OUR REGION TONIGHT.
IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY THURSDAY...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL START
MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE BY LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD
OUR AREA BY SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE
POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY AT MID AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
3000 J/KG IN MUCH OF OUR REGION. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND UNTIL 900
PM FOR THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE STORMS ARE RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES.
AS A RESULT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE EXCEEDED 100 IN MUCH OF OUR HIGHLY URBANIZED
CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON. THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REACH THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BY THAT TIME, COOLING TEMPERATURES.

A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ARE
EXPECTED FOR OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S WITH A
LIGHT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO STALL
OVER OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED IN OUR REGION.
AS A RESULT, WE ARE ANTICIPATING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY MORNING AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND WE ARE CONCERNED
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE
AREAS.

WE HAVE GONE A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER. THE WIND
SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
STILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY SLINK ACROSS THE REGION AS IT BECOMES BETTER
ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS TS ARTHUR IS EXPECTED
TO PASS WELL TO OUR EAST. THE TROUGHING SHOULD LIFT THROUGH BY THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED BY MID NEXT
WEEK.

FRIDAY...THIS IS THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE WE HARDLY SEE A ROBUST
COLD FRONT RIP THROUGH THE REGION GIVING WAY TO A MORE REFRESHING
AIRMASS. AS PER THE NORM, THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BASICALLY LIMP
THROUGH LATER ON FRIDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS
PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2 INHCES...MORE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. AT THIS
TIME THE CURRENT TRACK OF TS ARTHUR MAKES ITS CLOSEST PASS OF OUR
REGION, STILL WELL OFFSHORE, AS IT RACES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST SO
DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH SOME MOISTURE
ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A RETURN FLOW SETS UP SO
WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
DIFFERS A BIT ON HOW FAST THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS UNDER THE WARM
AIR/THETA-E ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE TIMING OF THE NEXT MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE IS ALSO SUSPECT WITH THE GFS MUCH WETTER THAN THE EURO. FOR
THE TIME BEING USED A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND WPC GIVING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER ZONES.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...PRE-FRONTAL HEAT TROUGHS BOTH AFTERNOONS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS/STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERY
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE VFR CATEGORY, THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD LESSEN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ANTICIPATED. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES.

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THE WIND SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS
INTO THIS EVENING. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR
OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS IS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MOSTLY POOR CONDITIONS WITH CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND OCNL
SHOWERS/TSTMS. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WINDS SAT.

MONDAY...VFR. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF PHL.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 10
TO 20 KNOT RANGE.

WE WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS TO CONTINUE
UNTIL 1000 PM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE,
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BE BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF ARTHUR PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS.

SAT THRU MON...SCA SEAS EARLY SAT THEN SUB-SCA THRU MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AND ALL POINTS WESTWARD BETWEEN 12Z THURSDAY AND 16Z FRIDAY.

REASONS...SLOW MOVING SURFACE FRONT, 2.00" PW'S AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT, AMPLE INSTABILITY, PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENT OR PRE.

TIMING...WHILE AN ABOVE INGREDIENT OR TWO ARE IN PLACE AT SOME TIME
TEMPORALLY WITHIN THE WATCH, THEY ALL COME TOGETHER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING. DURING THIS TIME, THE PW'S PEAK
AROUND 2.00" AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE H25 JET IS OVERHEAD.

PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENTS (PRE)...AT THE MOMENT, THE GENERAL QPF
CONSENSUS FOR THE REGION IS BETWEEN ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL,
FALLING TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, IS IT KNOWN THAT
NWP MODELS CAN UNDERESTIMATE HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE.

DO WE HAVE PRE INGREDIENTS? YES WE DO. THIS INCLUDES THE RIGHT REAR
UPPER JET, BEING AHEAD OF THE MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS AT THE
MID-LEVELS, AND NEAR OR JUST WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS.
ADDITIONALLY, IF YOU LOOK AT THE CLIMATOLOGY OF PRE'S, MORE OF THEM
ARE TO THE LEFT OF A CYCLONE TRACK.

ALL OF THE ABOVE, AT LEAST AT THIS TIME, SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER
OVER SOUTHEAST PA. THIS IS WHY WE ARE PAINTING THE WATCH ACROSS THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE RIDGING RIGHT TO THE WEST OF ARTHUR
COULD SLOW THE APPROACHING FRONT DOWN EVEN MORE THAN WHAT MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING.

ON A POSITIVE NOTE, ONE OF THE MORE TYPICAL INGREDIENTS WE COMMONLY
SEE IN LARGE RAIN EVENTS ACROSS THE FALL LINE IS A PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH AN EXTENDED FETCH. IN THIS CASE, WE ARE NOT
SEEING THAT, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS SHOULD GO SOUTHEAST RIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE.

RAINFALL...1.00 TO 3.00", BUT WITH PW'S AROUND 2.00" CAN DEFINITELY
SEE 4.00", MAYBE 5.00" IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS.

FLOODING...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING FLOODING ON ANY MAINSTEMS AT THIS
TIME. OUR CONCERN LIES WITH THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN DELAWARE AS WELL AS URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
AN INCREASE IN RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AS TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATE IF NOT HIGH DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND GIVEN
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST. THIS POSES A HUGE CONCERN CONSIDERING THE
LARGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE, INCLUDING THE LESS EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS,
WHO WILL VENTURE OUT DURING ONE OF THE BIGGEST BEACH WEEKENDS OF
THE YEAR. THE TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON LAND THIS WEEKEND
COULD LEAD TO A FALSE SENSE OF SAFETY IN THE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE-THREATENING IF YOU/RE NOT PREPARED TO
HANDLE THEM. FOR THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SAFETY...SWIM ONLY UNDER
THE WATCHFUL EYES OF LIFEGUARDS. OTHERWISE ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR
RESCUE CAN SUFFER FROM A MUCH GREATER RESPONSE DELAY AND BE FATAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>106.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ009-010-012-
     013-015-017>020-027.
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ001.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GAINES/O'HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...HEAVENER/O'HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
RIP CURRENTS...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

MDZ008-NJZ001-007-008-016-032015-
CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-SALEM-
411 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND
THEN OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL EXIST IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANY
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE SIZE AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER
TO THE THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER WHILE WE KEEP YOU UPDATED ON ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE
REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ001-NJZ009-010-012-013-015-017>019-PAZ070-071-101>106-032015-
NEW CASTLE-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
411 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND
THEN OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL EXIST IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANY
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE SIZE AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER
TO THE THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER WHILE WE KEEP YOU UPDATED ON ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE
REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ002-003-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ021>023-032015-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
411 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND
THEN OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL EXIST IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANY
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE SIZE AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER
TO THE THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER WHILE WE KEEP YOU UPDATED ON ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE
REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ020-027-032015-
OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
411 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND
THEN OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL EXIST IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANY
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE SIZE AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER
TO THE THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER WHILE WE KEEP YOU UPDATED ON ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE
REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ054-055-060>062-032015-
CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
411 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND
THEN OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL EXIST IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANY
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE SIZE AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER
TO THE THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER WHILE WE KEEP YOU UPDATED ON ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE
REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-032015-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
411 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND
THEN OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL EXIST IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANY
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE SIZE AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER
TO THE THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER WHILE WE KEEP YOU UPDATED ON ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE
REGION.

ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ450>455-032015-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
411 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND
THEN OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK. ANY
IMPACTS, INCLUDING WINDS AND SEAS, WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE SIZE
AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
PLEASE REFER TO THE THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER WHILE WE KEEP YOU UPDATED ON ANY POTENTIAL
IMPACTS TO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ430-431-032015-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
411 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND
THEN OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK. ANY
IMPACTS, INCLUDING WINDS AND SEAS, WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE SIZE
AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
PLEASE REFER TO THE THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER WHILE WE KEEP YOU UPDATED ON ANY POTENTIAL
IMPACTS TO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
245 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

PAZ060-021915-
BERKS PA-
245 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BERKS COUNTY...

AT 244 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SINKING SPRING...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MOHNTON AROUND 250 PM...FLYING HILLS AROUND
300 PM...LORANE AROUND 310 PM AND BIRDSBORO AROUND 320 PM.

LAT...LON 4039 7614 4037 7562 4014 7586 4015 7591
      4031 7615

FORECASTER:SFJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
248 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

NJZ001-021930-
SUSSEX NJ-
248 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SUSSEX COUNTY...

AT 244 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR FIVE POINTS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BRANCHVILLE AROUND 300 PM...PELLETTOWN AROUND
310 PM...SUSSEX AROUND 320 PM AND HIGH POINT AROUND 330 PM.

LAT...LON 4124 7444 4121 7447 4099 7484 4111 7499
      4118 7489 4121 7487 4123 7487 4129 7484
      4135 7475 4136 7469

FORECASTER:SFJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
256 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             POCONO SUMMIT           41.11N  75.39W
07/02/2014  M0.75 INCH       MONROE             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN POCONO SUMMIT.

0204 PM     HAIL             SCOTRUN                 41.07N  75.32W
07/02/2014  M0.33 INCH       MONROE             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1400351 PHI1400352

STAFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
324 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

PAZ060-103>106-022030-
BERKS PA-EASTERN MONTGOMERY PA-LOWER BUCKS PA-UPPER BUCKS PA-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY PA-
324 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BUCKS...EAST CENTRAL
BERKS AND NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 323 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BOYERTOWN...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN CAN CAUSE RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BOYERTOWN...HALFWAY HOUSE...BECHTELSVILLE...
AND POTTSTOWN AROUND 330 PM...GILBERTSVILLE...POTTSGROVE...AND
SANATOGA AROUND 335 PM...BALLY AROUND 340 PM...RED HILL AND PENNSBURG
AROUND 350 PM.

LAT...LON 4040 7581 4043 7549 4042 7548 4043 7546
      4047 7509 4020 7508 4022 7559 4024 7560
      4022 7561 4024 7565 4024 7570 4022 7573
      4022 7580

ROBERTSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
325 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

PAZ054-055-022030-
CARBON PA-MONROE PA-
325 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CARBON AND MONROE
COUNTIES...

AT 323 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
BLOOMING GROVE TO HAZLETON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR ALBRIGHTSVILLE...ALBRIGHTSVILLE...SUMMIT
HILL...AND NESQUEHONING AROUND 330 PM...WEISSPORT...WEISSPORT EAST...
PARRYVILLE...AND JIM THORPE AROUND 340 PM...LONG POND AND LONG POND
AROUND 350 PM.

LAT...LON 4125 7512 4116 7515 4113 7506 4076 7577
      4077 7582 4090 7599 4096 7590 4100 7575
      4102 7574 4104 7576 4124 7541 4126 7517

FORECASTER:SFJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
508 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

NJZ009-010-PAZ105-022200-
HUNTERDON NJ-SOMERSET NJ-UPPER BUCKS PA-
508 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HUNTERDON...NORTH
CENTRAL BUCKS AND WEST CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTIES...

AT 507 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 14 MILES SOUTH OF EASTON...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR FRENCHTOWN AROUND 520 PM...SAND BROOK AROUND
530 PM...FLEMINGTON AROUND 540 PM AND WHITE HOUSE STATION AROUND 550
PM.

LAT...LON 4046 7467 4040 7503 4041 7504 4040 7506
      4037 7520 4054 7528 4071 7477

FORECASTER:SFJ