Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF
OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST IS THEN EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
FOR LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOTS TO TALK ABOUT WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMAINS WELL NW OF THE REGION, OVER THE UP OF
MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME. EXPECT IT TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE SE. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DEEPENING OR INTENSIFYING AS IT DOES SO,
LIMITING SOMEWHAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AT LEAST ONE HIGH RES MODEL SHOWS THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE, AND BEING THE MAIN SHOW FOR THE DAY.
WHILE THE CURRENT CONVECTION COULD UNDERCUT THE INSTABILITY OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING, DO STILL THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME
REDEVELOPMENT MID DAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PRIMARY REASON FOR THINKING THIS IS THAT WHILE THE WARM FRONT WILL
PROBABLY STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION, EXPECT A PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE REGION MID DAY. WITH ON SHORE
EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, AND WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH, SHOULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE TO HELP WITH INITIATION. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHEN WILL
STORMS INITIATE ALONG THE TROUGH, AND WHERE WILL IT BE AT THAT TIME.
FORECAST FAVORS THE NAM, SHOWING THE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND WELL EAST OF THE FALL LINE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING HELPING THE TROUGH PROPAGATE EAST, AND GIVEN
PERSISTENT ON SHORE FLOW AHEAD OF IT, THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN.

AS FOR THE SEVERE RISK...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF ML
CAPE VALUES 500 TO 1000 J/KG OVER THE REGION (THOUGH SOME MODELS
SEEM TO BE BRINGING THE WARM FRONT TOO FAR NORTH). THIS COMBINED
WITH 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT, SHOULD RESULT IN
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS, IF THEY CAN OVERCOME MODEST CIN BELOW 800 MB.
THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL DRY LAYERS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS,
WHICH INCREASES THE RISK FOR DOWNDRAFTS. HOWEVER, AT THE SAME TIME,
ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS PWAT VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY
BEHIND THE TROUGH. AS FOR THE HAIL THREAT, THE MELTING LAYER IS
RELATIVELY HIGH, SO WHILE IT CANT BE RULED OUT GIVEN MODEST CAPE
VALUES THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH REGION, DO NOT THINK IT IS AS BIG OF
A THREAT AS STRONG WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, AS WITH THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF IT. WE SHOULD SEE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOP,
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HOWEVER, HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN AS THERE IS SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORE EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED LOW TO
OUR NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
ALOFT, WITH A COLD POOL NEARLY OVERHEAD, AND WARMING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH SATURDAY...MAYBE SOME PEA SIZE
HAIL WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT.

THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISH ITS GRIP ON
THE REGION HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGING SLIDES EASTWARD...JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL SETUP A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH ANOTHER
INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE EXPECTED, TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER,
THROUGH MID-WEEK. WE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING, THOUGH THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF "RING OF FIRE" ACTIVITY WITH RIDGING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO
ENTER FROM THE WEST LATER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR THROUGH SUNRISE, THOUGH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
(AND HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT KRDG).

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL WAVE NOW COULD AFFECT KABE AND KTTN
THROUGH 12Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP BY MID DAY AND
LAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. IF OR EXACTLY WHERE THESE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, LATEST HIGH RES MODELS
SHOW THE BEST SURFACE CONFLUENCE, AND THUS BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF ALL THE TAF TERMINALS EXCEPT KMIV
AND KACY. AT KMIV AND KACY THOUGH, LOW CLOUDS IF THEY LAST LONG
ENOUGH COULD REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR LATER THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MID DAY OR LATER HOWEVER, EXPECT VRB AND STRONG
WINDS. SOME SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH GENERALLY BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z.
WITH THE FRONT, EXPECT A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A LULL IN
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS A SMALL RISK FOR PATCHY BR
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 20KT LATE
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION, STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REGAINS CONTROL OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KDIX RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE AS
ELECTRONIC TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK TO REPAIR THE MODULATOR
ASSEMBLY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER/MIKETTA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/MIKETTA
EQUIPMENT...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106-230800-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
358 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THERE IS A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-230800-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
358 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
608 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

MDZ015-019-020-221115-
CAROLINE MD-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-TALBOT MD-
608 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CAROLINE...SOUTHWESTERN
QUEEN ANNE'S AND TALBOT COUNTIES...

AT 605 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ANNAPOLIS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. DO
NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN CAN CAUSE RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR STEVENSVILLE SOUTH AROUND 620 AM...TALBOT
AROUND 630 AM...ST. MICHAELS AROUND 640 AM...EASTON AROUND 650 AM...
WINDYHILL AROUND 700 AM AND CHOPTANK AROUND 710 AM.

LAT...LON 3876 7636 3887 7625 3881 7621 3883 7620
      3894 7624 3890 7624 3893 7628 3889 7627
      3891 7632 3884 7639 3897 7636 3900 7633
      3871 7572 3867 7575 3869 7589 3857 7602
      3859 7612 3873 7626 3867 7635 3877 7639

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

NJZ019-020-026-221500-
COASTAL OCEAN NJ-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-
958 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL BURLINGTON AND
NORTHERN OCEAN COUNTIES...

AT 953 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR GEORGETOWN...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN CAN CAUSE RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WOODRUFF AROUND 1010 AM...LAKEHURST AROUND
1020 AM...LEISURE KNOLL AROUND 1030 AM...SILVERTON AROUND 1040 AM AND
LAVALLETTE AROUND 1050 AM.

LAT...LON 3987 7407 3988 7410 3992 7410 3988 7413
      3998 7470 4014 7466 4014 7459 4008 7455
      4013 7446 4012 7424 4010 7415 4012 7413
      4011 7409 4009 7407 4011 7403 4006 7402

FORECASTER:PO