Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
653 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN STORY REMAINS THE VERY COLD AIR THAT IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA TRAILS
A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WHICH WILL RIP THROUGH
OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER STRONG LOW MOVES FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY TO MAINE MONDAY...WHIPPING ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN SASKATCHEWAN CANADA ON MONDAY WILL SETTLE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE THIS COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. AN ARCTIC FRONT TRAILED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS LOW THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHARP TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE WERE SEVERAL
AREAS OF MORE FOCUSED 850 MB WAA FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CAROLINAS.
A POTENT CYCLONICALLY CURVED 250 MB JET WAS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THEN UP ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.

WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT HELPED TO GENERATE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA EARLIER, AND THAT FORCING HAS
SHIFTED OFF THE COAST. THERE WAS ALSO AN AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING COMBINED WITH INITIAL SEEDING FROM HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
THROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, A POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, INDICATING STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE LIFT.
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND THE INTENSITY OF THE FEATURES ALOFT COUPLED
WITH SOME HELP FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL JET, IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL DWINDLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE MAIN
FORCING IS FORECAST TO EXIT TO THE EAST. THE POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO
LOWER THE POPS FASTER BASED MAINLY ON RADAR TRENDS. OVERALL WE
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW, AND SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO COVER SOME OTHER AREAS.

WE THEN TRANSITION TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLICE
THROUGH THE AREA, AND AS THIS ARRIVES AND THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
MAY LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE A FEW OF THESE IN A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION, ESPECIALLY AS THE TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES. SEVERAL
OF THE MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
THIS POTENTIAL. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOCALIZED, HOWEVER
WHERE THEY OCCUR THE SNOW WILL COME DOWN HEAVY WITH AROUND AN INCH
ACCUMULATING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WE WILL THEREFORE TAPER THE
POPS DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A GUSTY AT TIMES SOUTHERLY WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE WINDS SHOULD BE LESS FOR AWHILE
FOR MANY AREAS THIS EVENING, BUT THERE MAY BE A SURGE IN THE WINDS
FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN AND PRESSURE
RISES OCCUR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES ONCE AGAIN
DROPPING TO RATHER COLD LEVELS. OVERALL THOUGH, OUTSIDE OF THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS THE VALUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WAS USED THEN
SOME LOCALES WERE ADJUSTED DOWN DUE TO SOME WIND DROPPING OFF FOR
AWHILE AND SNOW COVER. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP
ASSIST WITH TRENDS, ESPECIALLY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OUT WITH THE FLOW
BACKING TO THE WEST AND EVEN SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH
ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A
PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS
TIME, RESULTING IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
WIND TO RESULT IN RATHER COLD WIND CHILLS ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING, HOWEVER OVERALL NO ADVISORY IS EXPECTED ATTM.

AS OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THE
WAA WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN FROM THE WEST. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH THE FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON, WILL
ALLOW CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. MUCH OF THE AREA MAY START WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE, BUT THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BULK
OF THE LIFT IS KEPT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THEREFORE NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE POCONOS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND, THEN LEANED TOWARD THE
COLDER 2 METER TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRONG (-2SD) POLAR VORTEX (500MB) OVERALL CENTERED NEAR HUDSON
BAY WILL WOBBLE AROUND AS MULTIPLE SPOKES CIRCULATE AROUND IT THIS
WEEK. PLUS 1 TO PLUS 2 SD RIDGES ARE ANCHORED OVER NORTHWEST CANADA
AND THE CENTRAL ATLC. OF INTEREST IS THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THAT
WARM CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEKEND.
THAT WOULD SET UP A STRONG WARM FRONT BETWEEN THE ARCTIC AIR IN
NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND A WARMING AIRMASS IN THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES...AND RESULT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: RECORD COLD IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY MORNING IN PARTS
OF OUR AREA WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY GENERALLY
20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL! THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE EASING
OF THE INTENSE COLD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A PRECIPITATION MAKER
GETS ORGANIZED TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

THE BASIS OF THIS LONG TERM SEGMENT OUR FORECAST DISCUSSION IS A
50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN USED THE 12Z/25 GFS MEX GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER THE 1522Z/25 WPC GUIDANCE WAS THE FORECAST BASIS
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY.

I DID BLEND THE WPC GUIDANCE COLDER TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY USING
THE 12Z/25 MEX. ADDITIONALLY... THE WPC DAY 7 POPS WERE BLENDED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN RESPONSE TO THE 12Z/25 GEFS AND OPERATIONAL GFS MEX
POPS.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) BUT THIS TIME MILDER
THAN THAT OF THIS MORNING AND SO NOT AS MUCH WIND TRANSFER. THIS
WAA MAY YIELD A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FROM EAST CENTRAL
PA INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...ESPECIALLY EARLY AT NIGHT BUT NOT A
BIG DEAL.

MONDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MORNING MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A RAIN SHOWER SOUTH AND SNOW SHOWER NORTH. GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN AS TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET FROM HIGHS REACHED BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. OF NOTE THE GFS
AND GEFS ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IS BELOW AVG.. ITS ALL IN THE TIMING. THE 18Z
NAM IS BACKING OFF THE WARMER 12Z CYCLE FOR MONDAY AND THE NUMBER
I'VE POSTED WILL HAVE TO SUFFICE FOR NOW. I COULD SEE THE MAX
TEMPS 3F EITHER SIDE OF THAT WHICH IS DETERMINISTICALLY POSTED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PLAN IS FOR NEAR RECORD COLD AND DRY
WEATHER WITH GUSTY W TO NW WINDS.  WIND CHILL ADVY POTENTIAL EACH
MORNING...MAINLY THE POCONOS BUT POTENTIALLY MORE EXPANSIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH NORTHERN NJ AND EAST CENTRAL PA. THE SREF IS
INTERESTING TRYING TO SPREAD A VERY LOW POP FOR SNOW INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THAT SOLN
FOR NOW IS CONSIDERED A VERY LOW CHANCE AND NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN
THE 330 PM FORECAST.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PROBABLY 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL!

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVERHEAD WITH PROBABLY LESS WIND
BUT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE
MORNING (PROVIDED WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS DELAY TIL MIDDAY) AND
THEN MAYBE WE BEGIN A CLIMB OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE IN THE AFTN.

FRIDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...MIGHT HAVE ANOTHER REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLDER AIR. JUST NOT SURE.

SATURDAY...MAYBE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER AND RISK OF PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT BECOMES ACTIVE TO
OUR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LOCALLY BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY
VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10-15
KNOTS. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE WINDS FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING, THEN PERHAPS TURNING MORE GUSTY FOR AWHILE OVERNIGHT AS
THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SUNDAY...OVERALL VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS, GENERALLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF KTTN KABE KRDG. OTRW VFR.
WINDS SW. LLWS POTENTIAL LATE.

MONDAY...BRIEF MVFR COND POSSIBLE IN A SNOW SHOWER KPHL NORTHWARD
AND IN A RAIN SHOWER SE OF KPHL...OTRW PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT
DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND 20 KT.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SURGE THAT OCCURRED EARLIER WITH THE PRESENCE
OF A LOW-LEVEL JET HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED EAST OF OUR AREA, AND
THEREFORE THE WINDS HAVE COME DOWN. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR
AWHILE, BUT THEN ANOTHER SURGE LOOKS TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG
CAA ARRIVING IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THEREFORE, THE GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OUR WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR
SUNDAY, THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY FOR AWHILE BUT THEN WILL
TEND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN. WE SHOULD NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN, BUT
GIVEN THE ONGOING GALE WARNING WE WILL NOT ISSUE ONE ATTM. SEAS WERE
INCREASED A BIT BASED ON THE AVAILABLE BUOY REPORTS.

FREEZING SPRAY WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE SOME AND TEMPERATURES DROP. THE BULK OF IT
IS LOOKING LIKE LIGHT, AND THEREFORE WE HELD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR
NOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS MAY INCREASE TO MARGINAL GALE FORCE SW
WIND GUSTS BUT NOT NEARLY AS FIERCE AS THOSE OF THIS SATURDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...SCA TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY WITH MORNING SW WINDS SHIFTING TO
NW GUST 35 KT IN THE AFTN/EVENING. FREEZING SPRAY REDEVELOPS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO POST A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FOR THE PERIOD 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 17Z
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DELAWARE BAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ICE JAM CONTINUES ON THE DELAWARE NEAR TRENTON AROUND THE SAME
LOCATION THAT SAW AN ICE JAM JANUARY 8TH. THE RIVER STAGE HAS
BEEN FLUCTUATING AROUND 15.5 FT AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WE
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SINCE WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING AT TRENTON AND POINTS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY MORNING,
THE RIVER ICE WILL THICKEN AND PROBABLY INCREASE THE WATER BACKING
UP BEHIND ANY JAMS. EXACTLY HOW ANY ICE JAMS BEHAVE ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE BACKWATER FLOODING AND EVENTUAL ICE JAM RELEASE... IS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT ICE WILL BECOME
MUCH THICKER AND WIDESPREAD ON ALL AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS THAT
ARE STILL SHOWING WATER FLOWS. THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE ICE THAN
WHAT HAD DEVELOPED IN EARLY JANUARY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENTON DELAWARE RIVER FORECAST POINT
ICE JAM AND ISSUE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS SHOULD A RISE OCCUR AND
CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS IN AND AROUND THE RIVER AREAS.

A FEW OTHER GAGES ARE STARTING TO HAVE IMPACTS FROM THE ICE IN THE
WATER. THE ICE MAY CAUSE A FALSE FLOOD READING TO OCCUR SO PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR YOUR NEARBY STREAMS AND RIVERS AND NOTIFY THE
APPROPRIATE PERSONNEL IF YOU SHOULD SEE ANY FLOODING AND/OR AN ICE
JAM OCCURRING.

OTHER ICE JAMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FORM THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
FEBRUARY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FLUCTUATING STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
WILL PERMIT TIDAL WATER LEVELS TO LOWER. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOW WATER ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTS, ALONG DELAWARE BAY
AND ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MARGINAL BLOW OUT TIDES ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE MAINLY MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SEASONALLY..KILG AND KPHL ARE NOW RANKED TOP 25 SNOWFALL THROUGH AT
LEAST 120 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING.

KPHL FOR JANUARY IS NOW TOP 5 ALL TIME SNOWFALL DATING BACK TO
1872.

KPHL JAN SNOWFALL RANKING AS OF 7AM THIS SATURDAY MORNING.
1 33.9 1996
2 28.9 1918
3 25.2 2011
4 23.4 1978
5 22.5 2014
6 21.5 1935
7 20.0 1893
8 19.7 1961
9 16.1  1912
10 16.0 1966

THE RANKINGS BOTH SEASONALLY AND MONTHLY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AS THE
LAGGED ENSEMBLE CFSV2 FOR THE PAST 10 DAYS (SINCE THE 13TH) HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
3 TO 4 WEEKS (THROUGH THIS SATURDAY MORNINGS ISSUANCE). THIS PERSISTENCE
IN THE PATTERN SHOULD LAST INTO MID FEBRUARY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
OF A BRIEF RELAXATION OF THE INTENSE COLD THE FIRST WEEK OF
FEBRUARY AND THEN AGAIN SOMETIME AFTER VALENTINES DAY.

SO ITS A PREDOMINANTLY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN AND
POSSIBLE SNOW EVENTS. SOME OF THIS CFSV2 GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING AN ABOVE NORMAL PCPN PATTERN THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY AS
A STRONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN GREAT LAKES COLD AND POTENTIAL
SOUTHEAST USA WARMTH EVOLVES.

THE PERSISTENTLY COLD PATTERN (VARIABILITY DOES ALLOW FOR A DAY OR
2 PER WEEK OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS) ASSURES WELL BELOW NORMAL MONTHLY
AVG TEMPS HERE IN THE MOUNT HOLLY FCST AREA FOR JANUARY AND PROBABLY
THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF EARLY FEBRUARY...AT LEAST AS MODELED BY THE
CFSV2. THIS FITS THE CPC DAY8-14 AND MONTHLY OUTLOOKS AS CURRENTLY
POSTED THIS MORNING.

VULNERABLE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT WE ARE FCSTG TO BE APPROACHED
WITHIN 2 DEGREES ARE LISTED BELOW.

1/28
KRDG 2 2005
KMPO -4 2005

1/29
KRDG 2 2005
KMPO -4 2005
KTTN 4 2005
KGED 8 2000

FOR KPHL...THE JANUARY AVG TEMP IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE BETWEEN
27.1 AND 27.8 DEGREES OR ABOUT 5.5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...NOT THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE 60 DAYS OF PERSISTENT EXCESSIVE COLD OF INTERNATIONAL
FALLS MN (NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT.
SINCE LATE NOVEMBER...OUR AVG TEMP IN THE PHL CWA HAS AVG'D BELOW
NORMAL!

THE PROJECTED MONTHLY JANUARY AVG TEMP FOR PHL SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST SINCE 2004 WHEN THE AVG TEMPS WAS 26.1 DEGREES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
826 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

PAZ054-055-270130-
CARBON-MONROE-
826 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING. COLD GROUND
AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL PERMIT SLIPPERY PAVEMENT TO
OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PERSISTENT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SUBZERO NIGHTTIME LOWS AT TIMES. WIND
CHILL MAY DROP TO 20 BELOW EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106-270130-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
826 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING. COLD GROUND
AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL PERMIT SLIPPERY PAVEMENT TO
OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS A RESULT OF THE PERSISTENT COLD, RIVER ICE WILL BE THICKENING AND
INCREASING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ICE JAMS AND ASSOCIATED
FLOODING. WHERE AND WHEN THESE WILL FORM ARE UNKNOWN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>027-270130-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
826 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE AN
ADDITIONAL DUSTING OF SNOW. COLD GROUND AND BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL PERMIT SLIPPERY PAVEMENT TO DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT OF THE COLD, RIVER ICE WILL BE THICKENING
AND INCREASING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ICE JAMS AND
ASSOCIATED FLOODING. WHERE AND WHEN THESE WILL FORM ARE UNKNOWNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-270130-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
826 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

A FEW SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF 35 KNOT NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS
MONDAY EVENING.

A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR FREEZING SPRAY RATES IN EXCESS OF THREE
TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
301 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

DEZ001-NJZ009-016>019-PAZ070-071-101>106-252130-
CAMDEN NJ-DELAWARE PA-EASTERN CHESTER PA-EASTERN MONTGOMERY PA-
GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-LOWER BUCKS PA-NEW CASTLE DE-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-SALEM NJ-UPPER BUCKS PA-
WESTERN CHESTER PA-WESTERN MONTGOMERY PA-
301 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

...AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL AFFECT THE GREATER PHILADELPHIA
METRO AREA AND WEST CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...

AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW COVERED PORTIONS OF CHESTER AND NEW CASTLE
COUNTIES.  THE SNOW AREA WAS GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
THIS BAND WILL AFFECT THE REST OF THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA
AS WELL PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL NEW JERSEY BETWEEN NOW
AND 430 PM.

THE SNOW WILL DROP VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AND COULD
PUT DOWN AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF SNOW. ROADWAYS THAT
ARE WET COULD BECOME SNOW COVERED, ESPECIALLY LESS TRAVELED ONES.

IF DRIVING, PLEASE BE ALERT FOR CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.  GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF EXTRA BRAKING DISTANCE.

LAT...LON 4011 7595 4026 7568 4044 7554 4042 7548
      4050 7540 4062 7510 4014 7490 3959 7503
      3952 7517 3956 7524 3946 7541 3938 7544
      3946 7555 3959 7555 3947 7558 3937 7550
      3929 7565 3930 7576 3972 7579 3972 7588

TFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
311 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

NJZ018>027-252215-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAMDEN NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
311 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

...AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEW
JERSEY...

AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW OVER CUMBERLAND AND ATLANTIC COUNTIES WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT PARTS OF
BURLINGTON...CAMDEN...CAPE MAY AND OCEAN COUNTIES. THE SNOW WAS
GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SNOW WILL DROP VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AND COULD PUT
DOWN AROUND A QUICK HALF INCH TO INCH OF SNOW. ROADWAYS THAT ARE WET
COULD BECOME SNOW COVERED, ESPECIALLY LESS TRAVELED ONES.

IF DRIVING, PLEASE BE ALERT FOR CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.  GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF EXTRA BRAKING DISTANCE AND
MORE TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

LAT...LON 3981 7407 3967 7414 3940 7435 3923 7462
      3911 7490 3917 7491 3921 7504 3918 7515
      3929 7529 3934 7530 3938 7542 3946 7541
      3956 7524 3946 7509 3957 7506 3952 7498
      3961 7488 3972 7500 4011 7435 4004 7404

TFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

NJZ010-012>015-019-020-026-PAZ106-252215-
COASTAL OCEAN NJ-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-LOWER BUCKS PA-MERCER NJ-
MIDDLESEX NJ-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-SOMERSET NJ-
WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
345 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

...AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...

AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW WAS OVER BUCKS...BURLINGTON AND OCEAN
COUNTIES. THIS IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL AFFECT THE REST OF CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY BETWEEN NOW AND 6 PM.

THE SNOW WILL DROP VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AND COULD PUT
DOWN AROUND A QUICK HALF INCH TO AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW. ROADWAYS
THAT ARE WET COULD BECOME SNOW COVERED, ESPECIALLY LESS TRAVELED
ONES.

IF DRIVING, PLEASE BE ALERT FOR CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.  GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF EXTRA BRAKING DISTANCE AND
MORE TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

LAT...LON 3990 7407 3976 7433 3992 7448 4033 7509
      4041 7501 4034 7489 4043 7475 4051 7480
      4051 7478 4070 7472 4075 7455 4065 7452
      4067 7440 4060 7444 4060 7421 4047 7425
      4044 7400 4048 7402 4048 7401 4045 7396

TFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
623 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-070-071-101>106-260500-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNET SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
623 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

...SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...

THE WIDESPREAD SNOW IS OVER FOR THE REGION. BUT THE COMBINATION OF
SOME SNOW MELT AND THE SNOW ITSELF WILL MAKE FOR SLIPPERY
TRAVELING CONDITIONS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED AND LESS
TRAVELED UPON ROADWAYS.

IN ADDITION, THE COLD FRONT IS YET TO MOVE THROUGH. SNOW FLURRIES
AND EVEN SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. SOME OF THESE WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE GREATER CHANCES NORTH OF A LINE
FROM PHILADELPHIA TO ATLANTIC CITY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL THAT MUCH
HAZARDOUS.

IF DRIVING TONIGHT, PLEASE BE CAUTIOUS AND GIVE YOURSELF EXTRA
TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. MORE THAN DOUBLE OR TRIPLE THE
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOURSELF AND THE VEHICLES AROUND YOU TO GIVE
YOURSELF ENOUGH TIME TO RESPOND TO CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
856 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-PAZ070-101-102-104-260315-
CECIL MD-DELAWARE PA-EASTERN CHESTER PA-EASTERN MONTGOMERY PA-KENT MD-
NEW CASTLE DE-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-WESTERN CHESTER PA-
856 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

...A LINE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF CECIL...CHESTER...DELAWARE...KENT...NEW
CASTLE...SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY AND WESTERN QUEEN ANNE'S COUNTIES...

SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE LINE WAS GENERALLY MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH AND
SHOULD REACH NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE WESTERN PHILADELPHIA
SUBURBS BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1030 PM.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS THESE SNOW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS MOVE THROUGH. THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY DROP
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN HALF A MILE AND COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK
HALF INCH OF SNOW.

MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO BE ON THE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING DRIVING
CONDITIONS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS COULD AFFECT
INTERSTATE 95, THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE AND ROUTES 301 AND U.S. 50
IN THE EASTERN SHORE.

LAT...LON 3904 7632 3900 7618 3914 7629 3926 7623
      3944 7600 3952 7599 3972 7623 3979 7605
      4011 7595 4012 7514 4006 7526 4002 7522
      3962 7560 3959 7559 3908 7597 3888 7620
      3892 7622 3883 7638

TFG