Special Marine Warning 19, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH DURING FRIDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST MONDAY, THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
INCREASING MOISTURE IN WLY TO SWLY FLOW IS IN PROGRESS ACRS THE
REGION.  THE AMS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE, MORE SO TO THE W THAN THE
E, BUT WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S IN MANY AREAS, DIURNAL AFFECTS
ARE IN PLAY.  THERE IS AT LEAST SOME UVV, BUT (DEPENDING ON THE GUID
IT RANGES FROM MARGINAL TO DECENT).  FLOW IS VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
NOT ALL THAT STRONG.  CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1500
J/KG.

SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE W AND A FEW HAVE
POPPED UP OVER THE DELMARVA, BUT SO FAR THEY HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
LASTING VERY LONG.  GUID INDICATES THEY WILL INCREASE IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THRU THE LATER AFTN AND EARLY EVE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WRN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA.

ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS COULD BRING LCLY HVY RAIN WHICH COULD CAUSE
ROADWAY AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHWRS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVE THEN
THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY, BUT CLOUDY.  A BACKDOOR
CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THRU DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOUDY, RATHER COOL AND DREARY DAY IS IN STORE FOR WED AFTER THE
NICE WX OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.  NELY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND THERE WILL
BE AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDS.  EXPECT PDS OF RAIN AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN.  DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT, GUID
TEMPS COULD BE TOO HIGH AND SHADED THEM ALREADY TWD THE LWR MET
VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
BEING SUSTAINED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC WHICH GOES
UNDER AMPLIFICATION AT TIMES. MEANWHILE, A PERSISTENT RIDGE FROM THE
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES MAY FLATTEN
SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OFF OR
NEAR THE WEST COAST MOVES INLAND WITH SOME SHORT WAVES EJECTING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR A TIME LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN SWITCHED TO THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OUR WEATHER WILL TRANSITION INTO
A MUCH COOLER REGIME AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHWESTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS AS RIDGING REMAINS TO OUR
WEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY ANCHORED NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES STARTS TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD. AS THIS OCCURS, THE WARMTH
WE HAVE EXPERIENCED WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TURNS ONSHORE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED THETA-E
GRADIENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE
FRONT CLEARS OUR AREA. IT IS DURING THE TRANSITION WHERE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS FAIRLY QUICKLY OWING TO THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE
FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, AND
WITH SOME DRYING ALOFT SOME DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP. ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE HANGS ON LONGER, SOME SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST FOR AWHILE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF THE THETA-E GRADIENT THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS
PERHAPS A SWATH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS OCCUR FOR A TIME. THIS MAY OCCUR
IN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEDGES FARTHER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY, ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
GET PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION, SOME DRIZZLE
AND/OR FOG MAY BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING BUT THEN SOME DRYING AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST MAY ALLOW FOR THE LOW
CLOUDS TO LIFT AND THIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MORE CLOUDS THURSDAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENTLY.

FOR FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST MOVES FARTHER
EASTWARD, A SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD WILL TEND TO AMPLIFY THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO
RESIDE TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE BETTER FORCING IS GENERALLY FORECAST
TO SLIDE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT SHOWER AND
THUNDER CHCS AND COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOWER CHC POPS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OR EVEN A CLOSED LOW
TO OUR EAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE ALONG WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO OUR NORTH WILL BUILD
INTO OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A POTENTIAL FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE ONSHORE ONCE
AGAIN ESPECIALLY DURING SATURDAY. IF THIS OCCURS COUPLED WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE OF AN INFLUENCE FROM THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW,
THEN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER MAY END UP CLOUDIER AND COOLER. AS OF NOW,
WE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE OCEAN INFLUENCE. WE ALSO KEPT A DRY FORECAST
ATTM.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE WEST AND INTO
THE PLAINS, THE SHORT WAVES SHOULD TEND TO KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN
SOME. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO TRACK OUR
WAY, HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ENOUGH HEATING, THERE MAY ALSO BE A LEE SIDE
TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS DURING TUESDAY WELL AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT. AS WAA IS MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS. SINCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT /POSSIBLY ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH/, WE WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL ANY AFTN/EVE SHWRS OR TSTMS IMPACT THE
TAF SITES.  THEN EXPECT MVFR AND PSBL IFR CONDS.  THERE COULD BE
SOME LINGERING SHWRS BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP.  THEN LATER TONIGHT, A
BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL APPROACH.  EXPECT MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDS LATER
TONIGHT AND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WED MRNG AND PSBLY INTO LATER WED
AFTN.

SW TO W WIND WILL BECOME MORE NWLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN NELY ON WED
WITH SPEEDS GENLY 10 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS,
POSSIBLY GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AT KACY.

THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES MAY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE IN THE
DAY OR AT NIGHT, HOWEVER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
CONTINUE. SOME SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF KILG SHOULD SETTLE
FARTHER SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY...OVERALL VFR. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES WHICH CAN RESULT IN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...OVERALL VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS ISSUED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM
PD.  SWLY FLOW WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS AND THEN A
CDFNT WILL CAUSE A MORE NELY FLOW BY WED WHICH WILL KEEP THEM
ELEVATED.

OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CLEAR THE
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FOR A TIME AND COOLER AIR ADVECTS
SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE SHOULD BE A SURGE IN WINDS /GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS/ SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA AS THIS UNFOLDS,
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
AREAS EXCEPT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD FROM
THE NORTHEAST AS THE WINDS INCREASE, AND THE SEAS AROUND 5 FEET LOOK
TO LINGER ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR AWHILE THURSDAY. THEREFORE, THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS THE
FLOW LESSENS, THE SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SUBSIDE WITH CONDITIONS
DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY EVENING.

THE FLOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN LESSEN AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY.
OVERALL, CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GORSE/NIERENBERG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
723 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

MDZ012-015-019-020-280015-
CAROLINE MD-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-TALBOT MD-
723 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CAROLINE...QUEEN
ANNE'S...SOUTHWESTERN KENT AND TALBOT COUNTIES...

AT 721 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM ROCK
HALL TO STEVENSVILLE SOUTH TO TILGHMAN ISLAND...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR OUT OF BALTIMORE IS SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS
WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN CAN CAUSE RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR ROCK HALL AROUND 730 PM...OLD TOWN AROUND
740 PM...STARKEY CORNER AROUND 750 PM...HILLSBORO AROUND 800 PM...
PRESTON AROUND 810 PM AND DENTON AROUND 820 PM.

LAT...LON 3876 7636 3887 7625 3881 7621 3882 7620
      3894 7624 3890 7624 3893 7628 3884 7639
      3905 7631 3899 7627 3900 7618 3903 7625
      3919 7627 3909 7575 3883 7581 3858 7600
      3859 7612 3873 7626 3867 7635 3877 7639

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

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