Alert archive / Maryland / Coastal Flood Warnings in 2014
Coastal Flood Warning 3, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this coastal flood warning at Oct 4, 2014, 3:35 AM EDT for Cecil County, Kent County, Queen Anne's County, Maryland. It was in force for 5 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 4, 2014, 3:35 AM EDT (07:35 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 4, 2014, 8:51 AM EDT
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
Counties Cecil County, MD, Kent County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD
The radar
The Dover AFB radar (KDOX), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 00:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 123 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 576 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 40 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 322 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 401 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
654 WHUS41 KPHI 040735 CFWPHI URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 335 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 MDZ008-012-015-041300- /O.UPG.KPHI.CF.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-141004T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.CF.W.0003.141004T0735Z-141004T1300Z/ CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES- 335 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATION...NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM QUEEN ANNES NORTH THROUGH CECIL COUNTY. * COASTAL FLOODING...MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. * IMPACTS...NUMEROUS ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD AND MINOR TO MODERATE PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY AT LOW-LYING LOCATIONS. * TIMING...AT TOLCHESTER, HIGH TIDE IS AT 3:38 AM THIS MORNING AND AROUND 7 AM IN THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE BAY NEAR CHESAPEAKE CITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING INDICATES THAT MODERATE OR MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. BE PREPARED FOR RISING WATER LEVELS AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY...PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$ MDZ019-020-041200- /O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-141004T1200Z/ TALBOT-CAROLINE- 335 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * LOCATION...EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM TALBOT COUNTY NORTH THROUGH CECIL COUNTY. * COASTAL FLOODING...WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. * TIMING...HIGH TIDE HAS OCCURRED AND TIDAL LEVELS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING. * IMPACTS...EXPECT ROADWAYS MOST PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO FLOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$
4 follow-up statements
576 WHUS41 KPHI 040933 CFWPHI COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 533 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 MDZ008-012-015-041300- /O.CON.KPHI.CF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-141004T1300Z/ CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES- 533 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * LOCATION...NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM QUEEN ANNES NORTH THROUGH CECIL COUNTY. * COASTAL FLOODING...MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. * IMPACTS...NUMEROUS ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD AND MINOR TO MODERATE PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY AT LOW-LYING LOCATIONS. * TIMING...HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH TIDE REACHES THE NORTHERN MOST LOCATIONS LAST AT AROUND 7 AM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING INDICATES THAT MODERATE OR MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. BE PREPARED FOR RISING WATER LEVELS AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY...PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$ DEZ001-NJZ016-021-041500- /O.EXB.KPHI.CF.Y.0020.141004T1000Z-141004T1500Z/ NEW CASTLE-SALEM-CUMBERLAND- 533 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING. * LOCATION...TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER IN NEW CASTLE AND SALEM COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY. * COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. * TIMING...HIGH TIDES SPREAD UP THE DELAWARE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING AND REACH THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER BETWEEN 7 AM AND 9 AM. * IMPACTS...EXPECT ROADWAYS MOST PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO FLOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$ MDZ019-020-041200- /O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-141004T1200Z/ TALBOT-CAROLINE- 533 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * LOCATION...EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM TALBOT COUNTY NORTH THROUGH CECIL COUNTY. * COASTAL FLOODING...WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. * TIMING...HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED AND TIDAL LEVELS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING. * IMPACTS...EXPECT ROADWAYS MOST PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO FLOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$
335 WHUS41 KPHI 041055 CFWPHI COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 655 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 MDZ008-012-015-041300- /O.CON.KPHI.CF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-141004T1300Z/ CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES- 655 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * LOCATION...NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM QUEEN ANNES NORTH THROUGH CECIL COUNTY. * COASTAL FLOODING...MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. * IMPACTS...NUMEROUS ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD AND MINOR TO MODERATE PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY AT LOW-LYING LOCATIONS. * TIMING...HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH TIDE REACHES THE NORTHERN MOST LOCATIONS LAST AT AROUND 7 AM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING INDICATES THAT MODERATE OR MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. BE PREPARED FOR RISING WATER LEVELS AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY...PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$ NJZ017>019-PAZ070-071-041600- /O.EXB.KPHI.CF.Y.0020.141004T1200Z-141004T1600Z/ GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- 655 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY. * LOCATION...TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER IN GLOUCESTER, CAMDEN AND BURLINGTON COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY AND IN DELAWARE AND PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA. * COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. * TIMING...HIGH TIDES OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THIS SECTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER BETWEEN 9 AM AND 11 AM. * IMPACTS...EXPECT ROADWAYS MOST PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO FLOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$ DEZ001-NJZ016-021-041500- /O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-141004T1500Z/ NEW CASTLE-SALEM-CUMBERLAND- 655 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * LOCATION...TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER IN NEW CASTLE AND SALEM COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY. * COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. * TIMING...HIGH TIDES SPREAD UP THE DELAWARE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING AND REACH THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER BETWEEN 7 AM AND 9 AM. * IMPACTS...EXPECT ROADWAYS MOST PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO FLOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$ MDZ019-020-041200- /O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-141004T1200Z/ TALBOT-CAROLINE- 655 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * LOCATION...EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM TALBOT COUNTY NORTH THROUGH CECIL COUNTY. * COASTAL FLOODING...WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. * TIMING...HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED AND TIDAL LEVELS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING. * IMPACTS...EXPECT ROADWAYS MOST PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO FLOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$
356 WHUS41 KPHI 041151 CFWPHI COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 751 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 MDZ020-041300- /O.CAN.KPHI.CF.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-141004T1200Z/ CAROLINE- 751 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. $$ MDZ008-012-015-041300- /O.CON.KPHI.CF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-141004T1300Z/ CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES- 751 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * LOCATION...NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM QUEEN ANNES NORTH THROUGH CECIL COUNTY. * COASTAL FLOODING...MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. * IMPACTS...NUMEROUS ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD AND MINOR TO MODERATE PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY AT LOW-LYING LOCATIONS. * TIMING...HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH TIDE REACHES THE NORTHERN MOST LOCATIONS LAST AT AROUND 7 AM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING INDICATES THAT MODERATE OR MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. BE PREPARED FOR RISING WATER LEVELS AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY...PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$ MDZ019-041900- /O.EXT.KPHI.CF.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-141004T1900Z/ TALBOT- 751 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * LOCATION...EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY IN TALBOT COUNTY. * COASTAL FLOODING...WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. * TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS AROUND 11 AM THIS MORNING. * IMPACTS...EXPECT ROADWAYS MOST PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO FLOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$ NJZ017>019-PAZ070-071-041600- /O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0020.141004T1200Z-141004T1600Z/ GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- 751 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY... * LOCATION...TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER IN GLOUCESTER... CAMDEN AND BURLINGTON COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY AND IN DELAWARE AND PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA. * COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. * TIMING...HIGH TIDES OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THIS SECTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER BETWEEN 9 AM AND 11 AM. * IMPACTS...EXPECT ROADWAYS MOST PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO FLOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$ DEZ001-NJZ016-021-041500- /O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-141004T1500Z/ NEW CASTLE-SALEM-CUMBERLAND- 751 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * LOCATION...TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER IN NEW CASTLE AND SALEM COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY. * COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. * TIMING...HIGH TIDES SPREAD UP THE DELAWARE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING AND REACH THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER BETWEEN 7 AM AND 9 AM. * IMPACTS...EXPECT ROADWAYS MOST PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO FLOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$
542 WHUS41 KPHI 041251 CFWPHI COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 851 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 MDZ015-041900- /O.CAN.KPHI.CF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-141004T1300Z/ /O.EXA.KPHI.CF.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-141004T1900Z/ QUEEN ANNES- 851 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * LOCATION...EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY IN TALBOT COUNTY. * COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. * TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS AROUND 11 AM THIS MORNING. * IMPACTS...EXPECT ROADWAYS MOST PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO FLOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$ MDZ008-012-042200- /O.CAN.KPHI.CF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-141004T1300Z/ /O.EXB.KPHI.CF.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-141004T2200Z/ CECIL-KENT MD- 851 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * LOCATION...EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY IN TALBOT COUNTY. * COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. * TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...EXPECT ROADWAYS MOST PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO FLOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$ MDZ020-041900- /O.EXA.KPHI.CF.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-141004T1900Z/ CAROLINE- 851 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. * LOCATION...EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY IN TALBOT COUNTY. * COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. * TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS AROUND 11 AM THIS MORNING. * IMPACTS...EXPECT ROADWAYS MOST PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO FLOOD. * SEAS...AROUND 0 FOOT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$ DEZ001-NJZ016-021-041500- /O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-141004T1500Z/ NEW CASTLE-SALEM-CUMBERLAND- 851 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * LOCATION...TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER IN NEW CASTLE AND SALEM COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY. * COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. * TIMING...HIGH TIDES SPREAD UP THE DELAWARE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING AND REACH THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER BETWEEN NOW AND 9 AM. * IMPACTS...EXPECT ROADWAYS MOST PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO FLOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$ NJZ017>019-PAZ070-071-041600- /O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-141004T1600Z/ GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- 851 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY... * LOCATION...TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER IN GLOUCESTER... CAMDEN AND BURLINGTON COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY AND IN DELAWARE AND PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA. * COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. * TIMING...HIGH TIDES OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THIS SECTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER BETWEEN 9 AM AND 11 AM. * IMPACTS...EXPECT ROADWAYS MOST PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO FLOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$ MDZ019-041900- /O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-141004T1900Z/ TALBOT- 851 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * LOCATION...EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY IN TALBOT COUNTY. * COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. * TIMING...HIGH TIDE OCCURS AROUND 11 AM THIS MORNING. * IMPACTS...EXPECT ROADWAYS MOST PRONE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO FLOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO COSTLY REPAIRS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE). && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this coastal flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this coastal flood warning went out at Oct 3, 9:54 PM EDT, 5 hours 41 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 3, 9:54 PM EDT, 5 hours 41 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AND
THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS LOCATED IN THE
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY AT 900 PM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION.
AS FOR THE PARTICULARS, WE'LL HAVE MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEMS THIS
FALL, BUT CONDITIONS ARE GETTING DRY AND OTHER THAN SOME POOR
DRAINAGE PONDING WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY OTHER LAND BASED
CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. ON THE FLIP, WITH THE DROUGHT MONITOR
HAVING THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA IN D-ZERO (ABNORMALLY DRY),
THIS RAIN (AS LONG AS IT DOESNT BECOME TOO HEAVY) WILL ASSIST.
THERE IS A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE STRONGEST WAA/305K ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE AND THE DPVA AND ENTRANCE TO THE
2.5 JET STREAM CONTINUES. THE TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT, BUT THE
GREATEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT COMES AFTER THE MOISTURE PLUME (ABOUT A
1.5 PWAT) IS ALREADY IN LONG ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND.
REGARDLESS THAT PCPN WATER PLUME COUPLED WITH A MODERATE LLJ AND
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GIVE OUR CWA .25 TO 1.00 PCPN AMOUNTS, HIGHEST
IN THE POCONOS IF THAT SC CONVECTION DOESNT FOUL THE UPSLOPE FLOW
TOO MUCH.
AS CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FREQUENT SHOWERS IS BROUGHT INTO OUR CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CRUX OF THE HEAVIER PCPN SHOULD BE WHEN THE
ABOVE FACTORS HAVE THEIR CLOSEST PASS, LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS FAR AS THUNDER GOES, PREDICTED INSTABILITY VS
ACTUAL CONVECTION IS OVERDONE TO OUR WEST. ALL OF THE MODELS DO
SHOW AN INSTABILITY PLUME NEARLY WRAPPING AROUND OUR CWA TO OUR
EAST INTO NYC. SINCE THIS IS THE ONE LOCATION WHERE THERE IS SOME
ML CAPE PREDICTED AND ALSO SHOWALTERS LOWER THAN -1C, WE KEPT
THUNDER CHANCES THERE. ELSEWHERE CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO KEEP.
CLOUDINESS COUPLED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW, WE HAVE SIDED WITH THE
HIGHER DATASETS FOR MIN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
IN TERMS OF PCPN CHANCES, THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE GETTING
BETTER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE CFP ITSELF SHOULD BE DURING THE
MORNING. THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF A SECONDARY THAT
MAY SLOW THE PASSAGE THROUGH NJ. ANY THUNDER CHANCES ARE VERY
EARLY AND TIMED CLOSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THAT WAVE. WHILE THE DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME IS EAST, OUR ENTIRE CWA STILL HAS PREDICTED MID
LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, FGEN FORCING AND DPVA. THE RUB WILL BE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THAT WILL BECOME MORE FLEETING. THIS ALMOST
LOOKS TO HAVE THE APPEARANCE OF WEAKER WAVES OF SHOWERS FORMING
THAT EVENTUALLY BECOMES SPRINKLES BEFORE THE CLOUDS RUN OUT OF
GAS. THE FORCING (THIS IS EVEN ON THE GFS) WE BELIEVE IS ENOUGH TO
GO WITH MEASURABLE POPS HIGHER THAN ITS STAT GUIDANCE EVEN THOUGH
THE ACTUAL PCPN AFTER 12Z SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH EXCEPT NEAR NYC.
WITH A NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW, SKIES SHOULD HAVE
AN EASIER TIME CLEARING THAN THEY HAVE HAD THE LAST FEW DAYS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING RAPID CLEARING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THEN.
THE MODELS CAA IS NOT THAT DIFFERENT. SO WE TOOK A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY AND LATEST STAT GUIDANCE TO ARRIVE AT MAX TEMPS. IT
WILL BREEZY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AS MORE EFFICIENT MIXING
WILL BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS (OVER 20 MPH), ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SOONER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL PATTERN...A RATHER STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH ROTATES
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE IN
THE FLOW ON MONDAY. THE CUT OFF LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BUT STARTS TO DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS
SECOND DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO BE QUITE AS STRONG
OR DEEP AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE LOW STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD
EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH OUR
REGION BY MIDWEEK. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH, WE WILL SEE
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOP WITH SLIGHT RIDGING EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
SURFACE PATTERN...BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND OVERSPREADS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE
REGION AND WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE REGION.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 850MB TEMPS DROP DOWN BETWEEN 2C AND -2C
WHICH TRANSLATES TO LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S, WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH THE WIND CALMS BEFORE
SUNRISE OCCURS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN UP A BIT OVERNIGHT EVEN
THOUGH SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART.
FROST IS NORMALLY A CONCERN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND AS PREVIOUSLY
NOTED BY MY COWORKER ON THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT, THE SOIL TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN WARMER OF LATE, WHICH WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT FROST
FORMATION. IN ADDITION, ANY WIND AROUND WILL LIMIT FROST FORMATION
FURTHER.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
SHOULD START TO BRING IN SOME WARMER AIR. DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION AND THERE SHOULD BE NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BUT COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS
INTO THE 60S THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST WILL
EXIST.
MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER
WITH WARMER AIR PUSHING MORE AND MORE INTO OUR AREA AS THE AIR
MASS MODIFIES. THE HIGH STARTS IT MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY
WITH OUR FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES
START CREEPING UPWARDS AND WE SHOULD 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMING AS WELL AND SHOULD ONLY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
TUESDAY...THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THE TIME TUESDAY ROLLS
AROUND. TUESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES RESPOND TO THE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HIGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND BY TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO KNOCK ON OUR
DOOR. SKIES WILL BECOME INCREASING CLOUDIER HEADING INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND,
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD EXIT OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE EVENING. SKIES
WILL START TO CLEAR OUT A BIT LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN AND RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH SKIES STARTING TO CLEAR OUT LATE AND
COOLER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
INT HE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND WE CLEAR OUT AND
DRY OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP AGAIN AS WE PICK UP A
NICE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS EVENING. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT THE MVFR LEVEL, SO
EXPECT A MVFR CIG TO REFORM. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ARRIVING AT WESTERN
TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
KTS.
OVERNIGHT, NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO THE MVFR/IFR THRESHOLD. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CIGS IS NORTHWESTERN AND IMMEDIATE COAST
AIRPORTS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND
MAY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS. THE PREDICTED
LLJ HAS WEAKENED, SO LLWS NOT MENTIONED.
SATURDAY MORNING CFP BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR AND VFR (NO CIG) FASTEST WESTERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS AND
POSSIBLY AT PHL METRO AIRPORTS BY NOON. THIS TREND TOWARD
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FARTHER TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY AFTER THE
CFP WITH PEAK GUSTS REACHING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
INTO SATURDAY. WAVE WATCH CONTINUES TO UNDERPREDICT THE SWELLS. IN
ADDITION SOME SMALL CRAFT WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS TONIGHT AND ALSO IN THE DEVELOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST CAA
FLOW LATER SATURDAY.
ALSO, THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE DELAWARE BAY
AS THE SERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE BAY THIS
EVENING AND THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LULL BETWEEN THE PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT WINDS IS TOO SMALL TO SEPARATE THE ADVISORY ATTM.
OUTLOOK...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE WINDS TURNING MORE TO THE WEST. THE GRADIENT WILL
BE FAIRLY TIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL BE
QUITE GUSTY, 25 KNOTS OR GREATER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET.
SUNDAY...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF
THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.
MONDAY...SEAS START TO RISE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND NEAR 5 FEET.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.
TUESDAY...THE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND WILL
NEAR 25 KNOTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED BUT WILL START TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY AND WE SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER DELAWARE RIVER AND
DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. PHILADELPHIA WILL REACH HIGH TIDE
AT 10 PM, AND WITH ANOMOLIES AROUND +1.25, MINOR FLOODING IS
EXPECTED, BUT THE TOTAL WATER LEVEL WON'T BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM TIDES ARE ALREADY FALLING.
A COASTAL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM TALBOT COUNTY NORTH THROUGH CECIL
COUNTY...INCLUDING CAROLINE COUNTY...FOR TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE.
TONIGHTS ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS HIGHER...AND A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH TIDAL ANOMALIES RUNNING AROUND 1.5 FEET...WIDESPREAD
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...AND A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE
FLOODING ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE HIGH TIDE AT CAMBRIDGE
OCCURS AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE HIGH TIDE IN THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAY OCCURRING AROUND 7AM.
ALONG THE COAST,THE ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE TOTAL TIDE
LEVEL WILL BE A LITTLE LESS DURING SATURDAY MORNING/S HIGH TIDE, SO
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. THEN FOR THE NEXT HIGH
TIDE ALONG THE COAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS SHOULD BE
OFFSHORE IN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, SO TOTAL TIDE LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ430-431.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...GIGI/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTAHazardous weather outlook, Oct 3, 10:04 PM EDT, 5 hours 31 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1004 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014 NJZ001-007>010-015-025-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-050215- SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-COASTAL ATLANTIC- CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER- EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS- LOWER BUCKS- 1004 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DEZ001>004-NJZ012>014-016>024-026-027-PAZ070-071-050215- NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX- WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON- DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- 1004 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR TONIGHT. ANY HEAVIER RAIN COINCIDING CLOSE TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL EXACERBATE ANY TIDAL FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MDZ008-012-015-019-020-050215- CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE- 1004 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ430-431-450>455-050215- DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 1004 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY WATERS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 10:32 AM EDT | Coastal Flood Warning | PHI | Caroline, Queen Anne's, Talbot | 2 hr |
Nearby
Coastal Flood Warnings in Maryland, 2014Every coastal flood warning in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.