Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Pendleton, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
244 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LOW THAT WAS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THE PAST FEW DAYS IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. EXPECT 2 ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FIRST WILL BE AN EAST WEST ORIENTED BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
AN AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION. THE SECOND WILL FOLLOW A FEW HOURS
LATER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT UPPER LOW. EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
GOOD DYNAMICS WITH THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED JET WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. WIND AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SOME
BLOWING DUST OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL THEN START TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE BY
AFTERNOON. POSITION OF THE LOW AND JET MAX WILL AGAIN PRODUCE
POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S. THE LOW IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE
EAST AND WILL ONLY BE NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER BY FRIDAY. STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE
DECREASING AT THIS POINT. 94

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.  THEY ALSO INDICATED A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN OREGON BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE INDICATED TO MOVE NORTH AND WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. 93

AVIATION...00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH 06Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
HEAVY RAIN. BLOWING DUST LIKELY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN THROUGH
02Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 5-15 KTS...BUT COULD GUST 30-45 KT
NEAR TSTMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE STARTING 21Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. 93

&&

.FIRE WX...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE OR/CA COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING WITH THIS SYSTEM.  MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
EACH DAY...ALLOWING FOR MORE PROBABILITIES OF WETTING RAIN...AND
LESS PROBABILITIES OF NEW FIRE STARTS DUE TO LIGHTNING.  RED FLAG
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW
EVENING.  WA & OR MOUNTAIN ZONES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO TOMORROW
EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH TOMORROWS
THUNDERSTORMS.  BY THURSDAY ALL AREAS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH WETTING
RAIN AND MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS STORMS TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOW THE
THREAT OF NEW FIRE STARTS. WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  82  61  79 /  60  30  50  40
ALW  66  86  63  81 /  60  40  50  40
PSC  65  87  64  84 /  60  30  50  40
YKM  64  83  62  81 /  60  30  40  40
HRI  64  86  63  83 /  60  30  50  40
ELN  62  82  60  79 /  60  30  40  40
RDM  55  75  52  77 /  40  40  40  20
LGD  57  81  56  76 /  60  40  50  40
GCD  55  81  52  78 /  40  40  40  30
DLS  65  80  62  79 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ049-050-502-505-506-509-511.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     ORZ041-044-503-507-508-510.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING WAZ030.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ024-026>029-521.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

94/93/93/89

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