Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
703 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK
AS A SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND NW PA THIS EVENING AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS. REMAINDER FORECAST
UNCHANGED AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VIA HIGHER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION...FUELING STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. GIVEN POOR VERTICAL SHEAR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS A LACK OF A LARGE SCALE LIFTING
MECHANISM...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER POORLY ORGANIZED AND
ISOLATED THROUGH THE EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
PERSISTENCE OF INSTABILITY EVEN AFTER THE DIURNALLY FAVORED
HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

WITH DECENT CLOUD COVER AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOWS SEEM
LIKELY TO STAY UP WELL ABOVE THOSE EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING...WITH
MID/UPPER 60S LIKELY TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS OUTSIDE THE 12Z GFS FAVORS A SLOWING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS RELATIVE TO
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH...A SOMEWHAT POORLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE REGIME IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE EARLY HALF OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...AND
ESPECIALLY APPROACHING TUESDAY EVENING...INCREASING SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY FUNNELED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
THE ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN ALL ALLOW FOR A RATHER SLOW SAGGING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TOWARD OUR REGION
FROM TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY
AS WELL AS LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LINGER
OVER ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE BASICALLY SHIFTED
BACK IN THE FORECAST 6-12 HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REIGNING SUPREME UNTIL THAT TIME.

A TEMPORARY DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN IS LIKELY BEHIND THIS WAVE GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH LOWS BACK INTO THE 50S AND
HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 70S. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...BRINGING HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK
NORTHWARD. FROM HERE ON OUT...EXPECTING A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS H500 HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AND WE STAY IN A
TYPICALLY WARM AND MOIST SUMMERTIME AIR MASS. DECIDED TO KEY ON
DIURNAL POPS FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH RIPPLES IN THE WESTERLIES MAY
PROVIDE ENHANCED CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL FLOAT TO A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF TIME WHERE SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
BRING RESTRICTIONS TO AREA PORTS. THIS EVENING IS ONE AND THE
OTHER WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...NO REAL TRIGGER TO
LAY HAT ON FOR CONCRETE TIME OR AREA OF DEVELOPMENT.

MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AS DAWN APPROACHES.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
417 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-241200-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
417 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
517 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

OHZ040-041-049-050-232200-
CARROLL OH-COLUMBIANA OH-HARRISON OH-JEFFERSON OH-
517 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CARROLL...NORTH CENTRAL
HARRISON...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLUMBIANA
COUNTIES...

AT 515 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHWEST
OF LEESVILLE LAKE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. HEAVY RAIN WILL POND WATER ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL SMALL
STREAMS.

  LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SHERRODSVILLE...      LEESVILLE LAKE PARK...
  BOWERSTON...          DELLROY...            KILGORE...
  CARROLLTON...         BERGHOLZ...           AUGUSTA...
  MECHANICSTOWN...      SALINEVILLE...        MILLPORT...

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH
FACEBOOK PAGE OR BY USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

LAT...LON 4048 8127 4057 8127 4079 8088 4058 8071
      4036 8123 4042 8127 4047 8127

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
553 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

PAZ007-232230-
MERCER PA-
553 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MERCER COUNTY...

AT 550 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF GREENVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. HEAVY RAIN WILL POND WATER ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL SMALL
STREAMS.

  LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GREENVILLE...         FREDONIA...
  MAURICE K GODDARD STATE PARK...             STONEBORO...
  MERCER...

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH
FACEBOOK PAGE OR BY USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

LAT...LON 4149 8043 4149 8034 4149 8033 4149 8012
      4146 8000 4112 8022 4136 8053 4148 8053
      4149 8052 4150 8044

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
612 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND GST     CARROLLTON              40.58N  81.09W
06/23/2014  E50 MPH          CARROLL            OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1401628

XX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
646 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

PAZ007-232330-
MERCER PA-
646 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MERCER COUNTY...

AT 639 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF
SHARON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. HEAVY RAIN WILL POND WATER ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL SMALL
STREAMS.

  LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GREENVILLE...         FREDONIA...           MERCER...
  STONEBORO...          MAURICE K GODDARD STATE PARK...

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH
FACEBOOK PAGE OR BY USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

LAT...LON 4149 8043 4149 8034 4149 8033 4149 8016
      4148 8001 4119 8000 4124 8053 4148 8053
      4149 8052 4150 8044