Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
909 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUICK UPDATE AT 9PM FOR CURRENT TRENDS. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED HAIL REPORTS. IN
ADDITION...SOME AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR HAVE
RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LOCATIONS THAT ALREADY
RECEIVED DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED PRIMARILY FOR THE ADDITION OF A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PITTSBURGH COUNTY WARNING
AREA...I.E. AREAS FROM ALLEGHENY COUNTY NORTHWARD WHERE ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MCS IS MOVING ACROSS OHIO AND SPPRTG TROF HAS PULLED FRONTAL
BNDRY NWD...HENCE POPS WERE ADJUSTED NWD WITH THE LATEST TRENDS.
UNSTABLE AIRMASS RMNS IN PLACE OVR THE REGION UNDR FAIRLY DRY MID
LVLS. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WL THUS CONT TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITH HAIL IN THE MORE EXPLOSIVE POCKETS. ALL IN ACCOMPANIMENT TO
HEAVY RAINFALL FUELED BY 850 MB MSTR TRANSPORT IN AREA ALREADY
REGISTERING 1.5 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD THURS NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH
FILLING IN BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH. MODELS VARY IN TERMS OF JUST HOW
FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAKE IT.
CONTINUING THE SOUTHWARD TREND WITH POPS WITH THIS LATEST FORECAST
WHICH ALIGNS CLOSELY WITH THE GFS/NAM SOLNS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
ISNT THAT FAR OFF. THIS WILL GIVE OUR NRN ZONES A BIT OF A
REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN THEY HAVE BEEN GETTING.

THAT BREAK WONT LAST LONG...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES
FRI AFTERNOON. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NRN
PLAINS...STREAMING JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW TRIES TO
RETURN THE BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...BUT WITH THE
CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW...THE WARM SECTOR AND BETTER
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH. WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE SAME DIURNAL
TREND AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF THUNDER...ENOUGH FORCING
AND COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT MORNING...BEFORE THE LOW PUSHES EAST.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURE FIELDS WITH THE WARM
SUMMER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND MARKEDLY LOW MODEL SPREAD NOTED.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SERIES OF SHRTWVS WL CONT TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN IN NW FLOW INTO
THE WKEND...CONTG SHWR AND TSTM CHCS. THE MAIN UPR TROF IS PROGGED
TO CROSS THE RGN ERLY MON. MAINTAINED CHC POPS AS CNVCTN WL
DEPEND ON TIMING OF SHRTWVS AND PLACEMENT OF A SFC BNDRY WITH
SLGHT CHC POPS EXTND INTO TUE...AND WED HELD TO A DRY FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL-DEFINED MCV
COMBINES WITH NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY. EXPECTING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR. INCLUDED
VCTS FOR THUNDER THREAT AT THIS DISTANCE...WITH TEMPOS AS
NECESSSARY AS THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH TERMINALS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT
AFTER 12Z AS BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH AND MARGINALLY DRIER AIR TRIES
TO WORK IN.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC SHWR/TSTM RESTRICTIONS ARE XPCD THRU THE PD WITH A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ041.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-073-074.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
550 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

MDZ001-OHZ039-040-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ029-031-075-076-
WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-192200-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-
GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-WASHINGTON-GREENE-FAYETTE-
FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
PRESTON-TUCKER-
550 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY FLOOD POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ041-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-073-074-192200-
COLUMBIANA-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-
JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WESTMORELAND-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
550 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
851 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DELLROY                 40.56N  81.20W
06/18/2014                   CARROLL            OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON STATE ROUTE 39

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1401578

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
904 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S ST. PETERSBURG      41.14N  79.65W
06/18/2014                   CLARION            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN

0838 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE SHAMBURG          41.14N  79.46W
06/18/2014                   CLARION            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1401579
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1401580

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
910 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW STONEBORO         41.31N  80.13W
06/18/2014                   MERCER             PA   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1401581

24

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