Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1058 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE HARD TO DEPICT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES BUT AREA
OF CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN OH ASSOCIATED WITH
IT WILL TREK SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TRIED
TO TIME LIKELY POPS AS THIS PASSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO WHERE ESPECIALLY
WHERE MORNING SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE A BIT MORE
QUICKLY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN TEMPER TEMPERATURE RISE THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVER THREAT APPEARS LIMITED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
AND WEAK SHEAR.

FOR TONIGHT TRENDED POPS DOWN IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF SLOW
MOVING FRONT SO LEFT LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CORRIDOR
BETWEEN FROM I-80 AND I-70 LATER TONIGHT FOR NOW. NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND CONVECTION WILL
ERUPT MAINLY AT TIMES WHEN SHORTWAVES ARE CROSSING THE REGION. HAVE
INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY FOCUSING ALONG
THE FRONT. STEADILY INCREASING PW VALUES AND WEAK FLOW WILL HELP
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A
CONCERN AT THIS TIME BECAUSE THE REGION HAS RECENTLY BEEN DRY.

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST...POPS WILL STEADILY
DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO
THE NORTH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER.

USED A BLEND OF GFS AND MOS GUIDANCE TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES...YIELDING A SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AND INCREASES THE CHANCE
OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE LED TO NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM BUT OVERALL VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALSO BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
913 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-281315-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
913 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.